2025 Contender Analysis
An in-depth look at the top contenders, their workouts, and pedigree ahead of the Nakayama dirt 1200m showdown.
Ecolo Ailes’ Form
Exceptional 50.4s workout signals peak readiness.
TO Elvis’ Speed
Sharp 11.1s final furlong showcases high ability.
Course Profile
Uphill finish favors powerful North American bloodlines.
Workout Focus
One-week prior workouts are a key indicator for sprints.
Race Overview & Significance
The 18th Capella Stakes (G3) on December 14, 2025, closes the central horse racing dirt season at Nakayama Racecourse. This crucial 1200m dirt sprint is a stepping stone for horses aiming for the February Stakes and prestigious international G1 races like the Riyadh Dirt Sprint and Dubai Golden Shaheen. This year’s event promises a thrilling clash between emerging 3-year-old talents and seasoned veterans, with this analysis focusing on pre-race workouts and pedigree to identify the true contenders.
Key Predictive Factors
Nakayama 1200m Course & Pedigree
- →Turf Start & Early Pace: Rapid acceleration from a turf start, especially from wide draws, makes absolute speed a critical factor.
- →Uphill Finish: The steep incline before the finish line demands both speed and raw power to maintain momentum.
- →Pedigree Advantage: North American dirt bloodlines (Mr. Prospector, Storm Cat) are heavily favored. Look for offspring of Henny Hughes, Drefong, Volatile, and Shancelot.
Workout Evaluation Criteria
- →Time & Speed: Fast times are key. Target 50-51s for 4F on the uphill track or low 80s for 6F on the CW course.
- →Lap Splits: Maintaining or increasing speed in the final furlong is a strong positive indicator.
- →Stablemate Comparison: Outperforming higher-rated or in-form stablemates in drills is a significant sign of readiness.
Analysis of Top Contenders
Ecolo Ailes
Outlook
A top contender. If the start is clean, its superior ability and speed could overwhelm the field.
Workout:50.4s
Remarkable time on the Ritto uphill track, matching the day’s best. Sustained good form, decisively catching its stablemate.
Pedigree
By Shancelot (Storm Cat line). Bred for exceptional early speed, a perfect fit for Nakayama’s turf start.
TO Elvis
Outlook
Strong contender for the win. Workout performance backs up his dominant last race.
Workout:11.1s (Last 1F)
Exceptionally fast final furlong on the CW course shows remarkable acceleration and mental maturity.
Pedigree
Volatile x Curlin. A perfect blend of sire’s speed and dam sire’s power for Nakayama’s demanding finish.
Sunrise Amour
Outlook
Consistent performer with strong past results. A high probability of a strong showing based on peak form.
Workout:51.4s
Clocking 51.4s while relaxed shows this 6-year-old mare is in peak form with no signs of decline.
Pedigree
Maurice x Taiki Shuttle. A powerful cross, her sprinting ability has matured with age.
Chikappa
Outlook
Strong 4th in JBC Sprint shows class. Lighter dirt surface should be beneficial.
Workout:51.7s
Good overall time, but a slowing pace in the final furlong is a slight concern. Still noteworthy for a horse not known for flashy works.
Pedigree
Real Steel x Into Mischief mare. A potent mix of turf-like speed and raw dirt power.
Gabby’s Sister
Outlook
The most noteworthy Eastern-based contender. A threat for top positions if workout form translates to the race.
Workout:66.0s
Exceptional performance on Miho CW course, easily tracking and pulling away from a higher-rated horse. Ample speed.
Pedigree
Apollo Kingdom x Special Week. Leverages sire’s dirt suitability with dam’s tenacity.
Pod Vader
Outlook
A dark horse with high potential. Showed high aptitude in its first dirt race and workout suggests more to come.
Workout:12.1s (Last 1F)
Sharp final furlong on Miho uphill track highlights excellent responsiveness. Jockey notes suggest agility for Nakayama.
Pedigree
By Lion d’Anvers. Possesses explosive power when conditions are right.
Final Forecast & Top Picks
2
Taikou (対抗)
TO Elvis
The 11.1s final furlong is formidable. His Volatile x Curlin pedigree is a perfect match for Nakayama’s demands. Ready to prove his last dominant win was no fluke.
1
Honmei (本命)
Ecolo Ailes
The 50.4s workout stands out. A Shancelot offspring with blazing speed and fighting spirit, he has a high chance of overwhelming the field with a clean break.
3
Tan’ana (単穴)
Sunrise Amour
Clocking 51.4s with ease at 6 years old is remarkable. As a consistent performer with strong results, she is unlikely to falter significantly.
Chikappa
Past achievements are top-class despite a weaker finish in workout.
Gabby’s Sister
Excellent Miho CW workout. Represents the best of the eastern contingent.
Pod Vader
High potential due to latent ability and a very responsive workout.
One-Week Prior Workout Data
| Horse Name | Course | Overall Time | Last 1F | Effort | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecolo Ailes | Rit.坂 | 50.4 | 12.4 | Strongly | Sustained good form |
| A Trax | Rit.坂 | 52.1 | 12.5 | Relaxed | Energetic but… |
| Gabby’s Sister | M.W | 66.0 | 11.4 | Relaxed | Ample speed |
| Culture Day | Rit.坂 | 56.0 | 12.2 | Relaxed | Showing composure |
| Kurojishi Joe | Rit.坂 | 53.1 | 12.5 | Strongly | Unchanged, progressing |
| Sunrise Amour | Rit.坂 | 51.4 | 12.1 | Relaxed | Body and movement good |
| Smart Eye | Rit.CW | 82.6 | 11.8 | Relaxed | Little upward trend |
| Tagano Mist | Rit.CW | 85.4 | 11.3 | Relaxed | Progressing smoothly |
| Chikappa | Rit.坂 | 51.7 | 13.2 | Pushed | Doesn’t move much in training |
| TO Elvis | Rit.CW | 68.0 | 11.1 | Pushed | Progressing smoothly |
| Don Amitie | Rit.坂 | 53.1 | 12.3 | Pushed | Powerful strides |
| Nitto Baji | M.坂 | 56.7 | 12.9 | Pushed | Body not sufficiently trimmed |
| Pod Vader | M.坂 | 54.1 | 12.1 | Final push | Good response |
| Yamanin Cherqui | Rit.CW | 81.3 | 11.7 | Pushed | Lacking extension |
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