Key points for winni…
Can T O Elvis claim his first graded stakes title? A deep dive into the top contenders for the GIII showdown at Nakayama.
Dec 14, 2025 • Nakayama Racecourse • 1200m Dirt (GIII)
A demanding 1200m dirt race at Nakayama, requiring a blend of raw speed and finishing power.
Spotlight on rising star T O Elvis versus the defending champion and course specialist, Gabby’s Sister.
Turf start adaptability, power for the final incline, and the 3-year-olds’ weight advantage.
T O Elvis, Sunrise Amour, and Kurojishi Jo showed exceptional form in final workouts.
The Capella Stakes is held at Nakayama over 1200m on the dirt. The course features a unique turf start, which often leads to a fierce battle for early position. Furthermore, a steep incline in the final stretch tests the stamina of front-runners, making it a challenging course for one-dimensional speed horses.
AI Prediction: 1st Favorite (3.8)
A rising star in this year’s 3-year-old class for dirt sprinters. Assistant Trainer Tomomichi noted, “He’s developed the physique of a true dirt sprinter,” indicating he’s hitting his peak. His American-heavy pedigree (Volatile ex Curlin) promises both speed and power. He clocked a sharp 11.9s final furlong in his last workout, proving his fitness is optimal.
AI Prediction: 2nd Favorite (5.3)
Last year’s winner, her suitability for this course is undeniable. Trainer Issei Mori stated, “She’s coming along well. Her appetite is good and her trackwork is sharp,” confirming she’s in top condition. With powerful strides seen on the training track, a repeat victory is a strong possibility.
AI Prediction: 3rd Favorite (6.2)
Riding a wave of momentum after winning his last start. Trainer Tasuku Uehara praised his dirt debut, saying, “His last performance was beyond my expectations.” With a pedigree of Leontes ex Daiwa Major, he possesses the speed to handle the turf start with ease.
AI Prediction: 4th Favorite (7.4)
Currently on a three-race winning streak, he is an intriguing contender whose full potential is yet to be seen. While the turf start is a question, his current form is electric. Sired by American speedster Four Wheel Drive, he is bred for a high-paced contest.
AI Prediction: 8th Favorite (16.7)
Put in a respectable 4th place finish in the JBC Sprint (JpnI). Assistant Trainer Shibata welcomes the cutback in distance, saying, “This distance suits him.” A product of Real Steel ex Into Mischief, he has the grit to be a factor if the pace is hot. With a B-rank from the AI evaluation, he’s a dark horse not to be underestimated.
T O Elvis: Clocked 53.8-38.2-24.3-11.9 on the Ritto hill. Showed an exceptional closing burst and is in great shape.
Sunrise Amour: Ran 51.7-37.7-24.5-12.3 on the Ritto hill. Posted a fast time with ease, and staff noted his excellent physique.
Kurojishi Jo: Posted an outstanding 51.3-37.9-25.1-12.8 on the Ritto hill. His gleaming coat indicates he’s maintaining peak condition.
This year’s Capella Stakes is a classic showdown between established older horses and a formidable group of up-and-coming 3-year-olds. The clash between T O Elvis’s raw speed and Gabby’s Sister’s course expertise is the highlight of the race. The final decision will come down to who can best handle the unique challenges of the Nakayama dirt sprint.
Access our final picks, detailed AI predictions, and full betting strategy for the Capella Stakes.View Full AI Predictions