An In-depth Forecast for the 2025 Championship
December 16, 2025
On December 17, 2025, the Kawasaki Racecourse will host the 76th Zen-Nihon Nisai Yushun (JpnI). This forecast provides a deep dive into the race that will crown the 2-year-old dirt champion, analyzing course specifics, the potential of top contenders like Best Green, Pyromancer, and Tamamo Freesia, and concluding with a detailed pace simulation and our recommended bets.
Table of Contents
Key Takeaways
The Main Event
The “Zen-Nihon Nisai Yushun (JpnI)” on Dec 17, 2025, at Kawasaki, will determine the 2-year-old dirt champion.
Top Contender
Best Green, from Hokkaido, is the favorite after a dominant win in the Kamakura Kinen on this very course.
JRA’s Challenger
Pyromancer, a talented JRA colt with a pedigree perfectly suited for this course, stands as the main rival.
The X-Factor
JBC 2-Year-Old Yushun winner Tamamo Freesia has the best record but must overcome the tricky inside post position.
Race Overview: Significance & History
The 76th Zen-Nihon Nisai Yushun (JpnI), held on December 17, 2025, at Kawasaki Racecourse, is the pinnacle event for two-year-old dirt horses in Japan. Beyond being a major regional stakes race, it is a designated event in the “JAPAN ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY” series, a pathway to the world’s most prestigious dirt race, the Kentucky Derby (G1).
A victory here not only confers the title of Japan’s 2-year-old dirt champion but also effectively secures a ticket to compete in North America’s classic races the following spring. This year’s small field of nine is a case of “quality over quantity,” featuring a potent mix of top colts from both the JRA and regional circuits, promising an elite showdown.
Course Analysis: Kawasaki Dirt 1600m
Course Layout and the “Corner Trap”
Kawasaki Racecourse is a tight, left-handed track with a circumference of 1200m, defined by its exceptionally sharp turns. The 1600m race starts with a long 500m straight into the first turn, often leading to intense battles for the lead. For inexperienced two-year-olds, misjudging the pace is a common pitfall. The sharp corners generate strong centrifugal force, causing horses that enter at high speed to drift wide. Nimble cornering and precise navigation by the jockey are therefore critical factors in determining the outcome.
Track Condition and Bias
According to the latest weather forecasts, rain is likely during race week, suggesting the track will be “yielding” or “sloppy.” Kawasaki’s dirt surface becomes significantly faster when wet, making adaptability to a high-speed race essential. Statistically, inside posts are favored, but with a small field of nine, the disadvantage for outside posts is mitigated. However, track conditions could potentially reverse the typical inside/outside bias.
Night Racing Environment
This race, part of the “Sparkling Nighter” series, will be run under floodlights with a post time of 20:10. For young horses, the stark contrast of light and shadow can be a distracting factor, testing their focus. This is a particular challenge for horses new to night racing. Horses with prior night racing experience, such as those from the Mombetsu circuit, may hold a slight advantage.
Full Field Analysis: Contender Breakdown
Tamamo Freesia (JRA Filly)
Rating: A
- Pedigree: Le Vent Se Leve x Maestrale (Neo Universe)
- Jockey: Kanta Taguchi
- Workout: 12/10 Ritto CW Good 85.2-69.2-53.3-37.6-11.7 (Full)
Analysis: Winner of the JBC 2-Year-Old Yushun, she has the strongest record. Her pedigree (Le Vent Se Leve x Neo Universe) suggests high aptitude for both dirt and tight tracks. Her recent workouts have been sharp, indicating she’s in top form.
Concern: The biggest worry is the innermost post position (1). A slow start could see her boxed in and taking kickback, which could be problematic for her sometimes sensitive temperament. Securing a good position early is key.
Fleur d’Or (JRA Filly)
Rating: B+
- Pedigree: Epiphaneia x Le Fort (King Kamehameha)
- Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
- Workout: 12/10 Ritto CW Good 98.4-81.5-66.7-52.1-37.2-11.6 (Strong Finish)
Analysis: A close second in the JBC 2-Year-Old Yushun. Her mental fortitude is a major asset, unfazed by long-distance transport and new environments. She posted a blazing fast time in her final workout, suggesting she may be in even better condition than her last race. If she can take the lead from post 2, an upset is possible.
Ayasan Jotaro (Hokkaido Colt)
Rating: B-
- Pedigree: Thunder Snow x Ojosan (Just a Way)
- Jockey: Tsubasa Sasagawa
- Workout: 12/6 Mombetsu Inner Good 61.0-48.4-36.2-11.8 (Campaigned)
Analysis: Finished 3rd in the JBC 2-Year-Old Yushun and is on an upward growth trajectory, gaining muscle. His pedigree suggests he’ll excel in races demanding power and stamina, but adapting to this tight track is a question. The jockey change to local ace Tsubasa Sasagawa could be the key to overcoming any course suitability concerns.
Pyromancer (JRA Colt)
Rating: A+
- Pedigree: Pyro x Saint Refuge (Hard Spun)
- Jockey: Mirai Iwata
- Workout: 12/10 Ritto Slope Good 54.2-38.5-25.0-12.2 (Strong)
Analysis: The “Pyro progeny x Kawasaki” combination is a golden cross with a history of success. In his last race, the Mochinoki Sho, he proved he can handle taking kickback and still win, a crucial skill for Kawasaki’s tough races. His finishing times are excellent, marking him as a horse with immense potential.
Best Green (Hokkaido Colt)
Rating: S
- Pedigree: Smart Falcon x Peaceful Joy (Pyro)
- Jockey: Fuma Ono
- Workout: 12/6 Mombetsu Inner Good 59.5-46.9-34.7-11.5 (Campaigned)
Analysis: The undisputed top choice. He has already proven his affinity for this course with a crushing 0.8-second victory in the Kamakura Kinen (Kawasaki 1600m). His pedigree (Smart Falcon x Pyro) is a classic recipe for regional dirt success. His workouts are superb, and the stable is brimming with confidence, stating his preparation has been “perfect.” He appears to have no weaknesses.
Life of Raccoon
Rating: C
JRA colt whose last win was in a 1150m maiden. The sudden jump in distance is a major hurdle. His pedigree suggests a sprinter’s profile, and stamina remains a concern. A tough race is expected.
Vulcanicus
Rating: C-
A local contender from Urawa, but based on his past opponents, he seems outclassed in this field. He enters as an underdog challenger.
Idaten Shacho
Rating: B
Jockeyed by the legendary Yutaka Take. His American pedigree provides explosive speed, but a layoff due to a minor injury in quarantine is a drawback. His workouts are good, and he has latent talent. If he gets a clean trip from an outside post, he could be a spoiler.
Cosmo Gigantea
Rating: C
The hope of the local Kawasaki stable, but comments from the team suggest he is still developing. Facing top-class JRA and Hokkaido horses will be a very difficult task.
Pace Simulation & Race Analysis
Likely front-runners include Life of Raccoon and Fleur d’Or. If Life of Raccoon, who has distance concerns, takes the lead, the pace could be moderate to slow. However, the race will likely intensify on the backstretch as the formidable Best Green applies pressure early, forcing the pace.
The critical point will be “Kawasaki’s third corner.” The key dynamic will be how horses like Tamamo Freesia and Pyromancer, potentially caught on the inside, navigate traffic while Best Green makes a smooth, sweeping move on the outside. On a sloppy track that favors front-runners, the horse leading out of the final turn will have a high probability of holding on for the win.
Conclusion & Recommended Bets
| Rank | Gate | Horse | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|
| ◎ | 5 | Best Green | The Rock-Solid King. His dominant Kamakura Kinen win, proven course suitability, and pedigree all point to victory. Few flaws to be found. |
| ○ | 4 | Pyromancer | Upset Potential. The JRA contender with the highest ceiling. His Pyro bloodline is made for the Kawasaki mile. If he runs his best race, he’s the top threat to Best Green. |
| ▲ | 1 | Tamamo Freesia | Proven Class. The class of the JBC winner can’t be ignored. The inside post is risky, but if she gets a clean trip, she has the talent to win. |
| △ | 2 | Fleur d’Or | Pace Advantage. A front-runner who is tough to pass when she dictates the pace. The expected fast track will suit her style. |
| × | 8 | Idaten Shacho | Dark Horse. The combination of Yutaka Take’s skill and the horse’s raw American speed makes for an intriguing longshot. |
| 注 | 3 | Ayasan Jotaro | Improving. Expected to improve from his last start. If the race gets messy, he could find his way into the money. |
Betting Strategy
We consider the favorite, Best Green, to be highly reliable. Our betting strategy will be structured around him as the axis. Please wager responsibly.
Trifecta Formation (12 Bets)
1st: 5
2nd: 1, 4, 2
3rd: 1, 4, 2, 8, 3
Exacta (Main Bet)
5 → 4, 1, 2
Quinella Place (Hedge)
4 – 1, 2
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