2026 Kawasaki New Year’s Day Race Predictions

AI analytics meet insider knowledge for the kickoff of the 2026 season. We’ve synthesized AI win probabilities with stable reports to bring you the top contenders for January 1st at Kawasaki Racecourse.

Article Highlights

• AI & Insider picks for the January 1, 2026 Kawasaki races.
• Tavanestan (Race 7) is our top-rated horse, with flawless data and peak physical condition.
• Smart Luster (Race 1) boasts dominant AI scores: 32% projected win rate, 67% place rate.
• Selections focus on horses with high place rates, making them reliable choices for your betting slips.

Race-by-Race Analysis

1. Race 01: 5. Smart Luster
2. Race 02: 6. Glory Shoes
3. Race 03: 12. Rokuno Rainbow
4. Race 04: 3. Schweigen
5. Race 05: 6. Atago Tenjin
6. Race 06: 12. Tatsuno Kiseki
7. Race 07: 3. Tavanestan
8. Race 09: 9. Shigeru Mach
9. Race 10: 8. Fire Whip
10. Race 12: 2. Naatu

Kawasaki 01R: Horse to Watch: #5 Smart Luster

AI Analysis

32%

Projected Win Rate

67%

Place Rate (Top 3)

Verdict

With overwhelmingly superior AI metrics, Smart Luster is in a class of its own here. At projected odds of 2.2, the data confirms high confidence. A reliable key horse to start the year with a win.

Kawasaki 02R (Otoshidama Sho): #6 Glory Shoes

AI Analysis

15%

Projected Win Rate

73%

Place Rate (Top 3)

Insider Comment

“Last race, getting boxed in hurt us. In this class-drop race, taking the lead from the start would be ideal.”- Trainer Hiroshi Sato

Verdict

While the win rate is modest, the exceptional 73% place rate highlights incredible consistency. The AI suggests a very high probability of a top-3 finish. If Glory Shoes can get a clean start and lead, it’s a solid bet to be in the money.

TOP PICK

Kawasaki 07R (Nitaka Sho): #3 Tavanestan

AI Analysis

32%

Projected Win Rate

64%

Place Rate (Top 3)

Insider Comment

“Training has been consistent and the conditioning is excellent. The horse has talent.”- Trainer Hirata

Verdict

Our most confident pick of the day. Tavanestan shows rock-solid AI numbers and the stable’s confidence is high. The perfect alignment of data and physical condition makes this horse a prime candidate for the top spot. Bet with confidence.

03R: #12 Rokuno Rainbow

Despite a wide draw, the AI projects a solid 52% place rate. Trainer Yamazaki notes, “Has run well in both starts, maintaining good form.” A strong contender if it gets a good trip.

04R: #3 Schweigen

In a competitive field, the AI gives a 49% place rate. Trainer Kubo notes, “Condition is stable, but the competition is weaker this time.” This class relief presents a clear opportunity.

05R: #6 Atago Tenjin

AI is very bullish with a 25% win rate and 64% place rate. “A very fast horse from the gate. The 900m at Kawasaki should suit perfectly,” says trainer Sano. A top choice for sprint races.

06R: #12 Tatsuno Kiseki

A value pick with projected odds of 4.3 and a 50% place rate. While insiders feel it’s slightly heavy, its underlying ability is top-class. AI backing makes it a great potential upset.

09R: #9 Shigeru Mach

Dominant AI stats: 30% win, 69% place. “Same conditions as last race. If we get a smooth run on the outside, a consecutive win is possible,” states trainer Suzuki. High confidence from the stable.

10R: #8 Fire Whip

Another powerhouse with 30% win and 68% place rates. “We targeted this Kawasaki race. The last win was dominant, we’re ready to start the new year strong,” says trainer Noguchi. Primed for victory.

12R: #2 Naatu

In a wide-open final race, the AI identifies Naatu with a 53% place rate as the most likely to hit the board. While the trainer’s comments are cautious, training diagnostics show “good conditioning.” A solid pick based on raw ability and AI analysis to close out the day.

Final Picks & Detailed Betting Slips

For our final conclusions and specific betting recommendations, please visit our partner site. Use these insights to start your 2026 racing season with a victory!View Final Betting Recommendations