第77回朝日杯FS（…
未分類2025年12月21日に阪神競馬場で行わ…
AI-Selected Value Horses
IntroductionRace 01: Reina BurrowsRace 02: Porta RomanaRace 07: YamabukiRace 09: Live MustardOverall Conclusion
This analysis shifts from traditional prediction to a data-driven “value” assessment. True victory in horse racing lies in identifying horses with positive expected value, where market odds underestimate their true ability. We leverage AI-calculated metrics, training data, and bloodline analysis to pinpoint these opportunities.
A compact 1200m track with tight turns demanding agility. December conditions often create a “power-first” surface favoring well-conditioned front-runners.
“AI Predicted Expected Return” is crucial. A value over 100% signifies an undervalued horse where the potential payout outweighs the statistical risk.
RACE 01 • 12:10 • 1400m
The Reliable Contender in the 2-Year-Old Debut
Projected Win Rate54.4%
Single-Win Expected Return175%
Value exceeds 100%, indicating high ROI potential.
Bloodline: Sired by Henry Burrows, known for early maturity. Dam sire adds speed and power, ideal for Urawa’s tight turns.
Training: Exceptional workout times, matching older, higher-class horses with ease. Shows outstanding cardiovascular capacity and power.
Conclusion: Overwhelming ability, superior training, and strong AI ratings make Reina Burrows the top pick. Her class is evident, making her a strong anchor for all bet types.
RACE 02 • 12:40 • 1400m
The High-Value Dark Horse with Distance Potential
Place-Bet Expected Return223%
Exceptional value indicates significant market undervaluation.
Bloodline: Sire Firenze Fire brings Grade 1 speed, while dam sire Screen Hero adds stamina, perfect for the extended 1400m distance.
Analysis: Previous race was hampered by pace issues at a new distance. Now poised to settle into her natural, large stride and show her true ability.
Conclusion: While not the favorite, Porta Romana offers dramatic improvement potential. The AI’s massive 223% place-bet expected return signals a “bomb” capable of boosting payouts significantly.
RACE 07 • 15:15 • 2000m
The Stamina Specialist for a Grueling Battle
Selected based on re-evaluation of her suitability for the demanding 2000m distance. Her stamina pedigree gives her a decisive edge over more speed-oriented rivals in a long, taxing race.
Bloodline: An elite stamina pedigree from Gold Ship x Stay Gold. Progeny are known to excel in grueling, long-distance races, making Urawa’s 2000m an ideal stage.
Condition: Running in consecutive races, but training data shows peak physical and mental form. Stable is confident in her condition and ability to handle the pace.
Conclusion: In a race where “distance suitability” is the most reliable factor, Yamabuki stands out. If the pace is fast and front-runners tire, she is perfectly positioned to emerge in the final stretch as a high-value dark horse.
RACE 09 • 16:25 • 1500m
The Course Specialist in Prime Form
Single-Win Expected Return199%
AI shows full trust, indicating excellent value beyond win rate.
Bloodline: Sire Toby’s Corner’s progeny excel on compact tracks like Urawa, especially at 1400m-1500m. This is their “home turf.”
Form: Won its last race at this exact course and distance with an excellent time. Training data confirms continued improvement and a powerful stride.
Conclusion: Live Mustard checks all boxes: course suitability, bloodline, current form, and stable confidence. If the class upgrade inflates the odds, it’s a prime “value” opportunity and the clear top pick.
This analysis identifies four prime “value horses” where suitability and condition are poised to deliver results. Consistent investment based on logical reasoning and expected value is the path to victory.
◎ Race 01: Reina Burrows High Reliability
◎ Race 02: Porta Romana High-Value Dark Horse
◎ Race 07: Yamabuki Stamina Advantage
◎ Race 09: Live Mustard Peak Form & Suitability
Access the complete race predictions and final betting slips via the link below. All betting is undertaken at your own risk.View Final Betting Slips