In-depth Analysis of Favorites Bond Girl and Others by Pedigree and Training
Published: December 18, 2025
Demanding Course
Nakayama’s 1600m turf course demands a unique blend of power, stamina, and mobility.
Lord Kanaloa’s Dominance
Progeny of Lord Kanaloa are heavily favored due to their proven speed and power on this course.
Top Workout Ranks
Cerbiatto (S), Bond Girl (A), and Umbrail (A) lead the field in final workout evaluations.
Bloodline & Sire Performance
| Sire Name | Win Rate | Place Rate | Characteristics |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lord Kanaloa | High | High | Combines sustained speed and power. No. 1 course record. |
| Silver State | 11.0% | 25.2% | Remarkable place rate. Forwardness and tenacity suit Nakayama. |
| Kizuna | 11.6% | 21.5% | Many power-type runners; good compatibility with winter Nakayama track. |
| Epiphaneia | 8.5% | 14.1% | Many runners have a long, good finishing kick; strong in attrition races. |
| Daiwa Major | 7.2% | — | Once a dominant sire, now average, but underlying strength remains. |
In-depth Runner Analysis
S
Cerbiatto
3 y.o. Filly | 54kg | Jockey: K. Tosaki
Workout (S): Displayed high-quality, elastic strides. Maturation this autumn is evident. Upward trend is best in the field.
Pedigree: Full sister to G1 winner Shonan Pandora. Lord Kanaloa’s speed and French Deputy’s power provide ideal stamina for Nakayama’s incline.
Assessment: Previous performance suggests she can compete at GIII level. Advantageous 54kg handicap. Expected to handle the class step-up easily.
A
Bond Girl
4 y.o. Filly | 56kg | Jockey: H. Tsumura
Workout (A): Powerful strides on the training track indicate mental stability and good recovery from previous loss. Trainer notes she’s “more lively”.
Pedigree: Sire Daiwa Major is a known success at Nakayama mile. She has a 2nd place finish in GII here, proving course suitability.
Assessment: Biggest challenge is the gate start. If she breaks smoothly, her ability is top-tier. Fair handicap. Strongest contender for maiden graded stakes win.
A
Umbrail
5 y.o. Filly | 55.5kg | Jockey: C. Lemaire
Workout (A): Showed sharp response, showing no signs of being first-up. Stable is skilled at preparing horses returning from a break.
Pedigree: Full brother Stelvio won the Mile Championship. Lord Kanaloa x Falbrav cross is perfect for mile distances. Has agility and power for Nakayama.
Assessment: Inconsistent G1/G2 results, but top-class for a GIII. Lemaire’s continued partnership is reassuring. A comeback is highly possible.
A
Drop of Light
6 y.o. Filly | 56kg | Jockey: F. Matsuwaka
Workout (A): Recorded an excellent overall time of 52.0s on the Ritto training track. Full of vitality and speed is competitive at GIII level.
Assessment: Has the potential to finish in the top ranks depending on the race development.
Vip Daisy
3 y.o. Filly | 54kg | Jockey: J. Nishimura
B+
Impressive training times suggest peak condition. Return to a mile is a significant positive. Can contend for a top position with weight advantage.
Salt Queen
4 y.o. Filly | 53kg | Jockey: S. Tomita
B+
Sharp final furlong of 11.4s in workout. Sire Silver State boasts a >25% place rate. With 53kg handicap, could be a dark horse.
Feel Sympathy
6 y.o. Filly | 53kg | Jockey: A. Sugawara
B
Stable movement, no signs of decline. 2nd in last year’s race, a true course specialist. Attractive 53kg weight.
Kapilina
4 y.o. Filly | 56kg | Jockey: N. Yokoyama
B
Light movement, good condition. Extending from sprint is key, but may show a new dimension if she runs rhythmically.
So Dazzling
5 y.o. Filly | 55.5kg | Jockey: T. Yokoyama
C+
Lagged in workout, suggesting she’s not at her peak. High ability, but difficult to recommend while recovering from previous race.
Other Notables
- June Orange: Power-type build suits Nakayama.
- Rilabonito: Light movement, ready to run despite layoff.
- Run For Vow: Heavy movement, needs more time.
Final Workout Data
| Horse Name | Course | 4F/6F Time | Last 1F | Short Review |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerbiatto | Ri S | 54.6 | 12.3 | Elastic stride. In prime form. |
| Umbrail | Mi W | 83.5(6F) | 11.7 | Last 11.7s is excellent. Sharp response. |
| Drop of Light | Ri S | 52.0 | 12.6 | Overall time of 52.0s is excellent. Lively. |
| Bond Girl | Mi S | 54.3 | 12.9 | More power than time suggests. Improving. |
| Vip Daisy | Ri S | 54.9 | 12.4 | Previous week’s 52.7s was impressive. |
| Salt Queen | Ri CW | 83.5(6F) | 11.4 | Last 1F 11.4s is sharp. Maintaining good form. |
| Kapilina | Mi W | 67.3(5F) | 11.5 | Sufficient speed. Key is adapting to distance. |
| Feel Sympathy | Mi W | 69.1(5F) | 11.7 | Stable movement of a seasoned horse. Smooth. |
| So Dazzling | Ri S | 53.3 | 12.4 | Lagged behind partner. Not at peak. |
Final Judgment & Top Picks
◎
Bond Girl
Combines achievements, course suitability, and workout condition. Ability should shine if she breaks well.
○
Cerbiatto
Outstanding pedigree and workouts. Growth as a 3-year-old and favorable handicap give her a strong chance.
▲
Umbrail
A superior presence in GIII races, likely to be underestimated. Aims for a comeback with jockey Lemaire.
△
Special Mentions
Drop of Light: Excellent training time is appealing.
Vip Daisy: Expected to improve with distance reduction.
Disclaimer: The information in this report is based on materials provided and publicly available information as of December 18, 2025. Horse racing is unpredictable, and results may vary. Betting on horse races is at your own risk.
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