A deep dive into contenders like Aitaka & Nirai Kanai Arrow via pedigree and data analysis for the premier event at Saga Racecourse on December 7, 2025.
Key Takeaways
- 🏇The 2nd Kyushu Grand Prix, a premier race for Kyushu-bred horses, will be held on Dec 7, 2025, at Saga Racecourse (Dirt 1800m).
- 🏆Local hero Aitaka, last year’s runner-up, aims for redemption leveraging course suitability and proven performance.
- ⚔️Bell Bold Nine, from the competitive Ohi Racecourse, is a top-tier challenger where regional racing class will be a key factor.
- ⚡️Nirai Kanai Arrow, a 3-year-old on an impressive winning streak, seeks to usher in a new generation, capitalizing on a weight advantage.
Table of Contents
- Introduction: The Kyushu Horse Festival & 2nd Edition Outlook
- Venue Analysis: Saga Racecourse Dirt 1800m
- Detailed Analysis of All Entrants
- Race Simulation: Pacing and Decisive Moments
- Key Forecasting Points: A Summary
- Conclusion and Recommended Approach
Introduction: The Kyushu Horse Festival
On December 7, 2025, Saga Racecourse will host the 2nd Kyushu Grand Prix, a prestigious race determining the champion among thoroughbreds raised in the Kyushu region. Established in 2024, this competition aims to promote horse breeding in Kyushu, once a major breeding hub in Japan, and to bring together Kyushu-bred horses from various regions for a championship showdown.
The inaugural event is still fresh in memory, featuring a thrilling battle that saw Lupinus Tesoro from Kochi triumph, with local contender Aitaka finishing a close second. The second edition will be run as a set-weight race for horses aged three and older over 1800 meters on dirt.
This year’s lineup is diverse and talented, featuring local hero Aitaka seeking redemption, the three-year-old rising star Nirai Kanai Arrow who has been climbing the ranks with unstoppable momentum, and Bell Bold Nine, a formidable entrant from the highly competitive Ohi Racecourse in the NAR South Kanto region. This report offers a comprehensive analysis of all entrants, delving into their strengths, pedigree, the specifics of the Saga 1800m course, and race simulations, providing all the essential elements for your betting consideration.
Venue Analysis: Saga Racecourse Dirt 1800m
Course Layout and “Patou” Sand
Saga Racecourse’s dirt track is a standard small oval with a circumference of 1100m. However, its notable features are its wide track and a unique structure where the inner portion of the track has deeper sand. Jockeys often ride “off the rail” to avoid this deep sand, which can sap a horse’s stamina, making it standard practice to take a wider path even if it means covering more ground.
The 1800m race starts from the middle of the front stretch, with the horses making one and a half laps. The ample distance to the first corner mitigates extreme advantages or disadvantages based on gate position in the early pace battle. Nevertheless, positioning during the first pass of the homestretch significantly influences the rest of the race. Saga is particularly known for “makuri” moves (making a long, sweeping move from the outside) before the 4th corner, demanding both maneuverability at crucial moments and the stamina to maintain speed to the finish.
Recent Track Bias
Analyzing the track conditions at Saga Racecourse from November to December 2025, recent races have shown slower finishing times even on “good” rated tracks, suggesting a power-demanding surface. Based on this, the 1800m race is expected to be run in about 2:00 to 2:01. This points towards a war of attrition where sustained stamina is more critical than raw speed. Horses with proven power and stamina on tough tracks should be favored.
| Date | Race | Distance | Track | Winning Time | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025.11.16 | Moonlight Special C2 | 1750m | Good | 1:57.2 | Average to Tough |
| 2025.11.15 | Pegasus Special C2 | 1400m | Good | 1:30.7 | Closers can win |
| 2025.11.02 | Aquarius Special C2 | 1300m | Good | 1:24.5 | Favors front-runners |
Detailed Analysis of All Entrants
1
Himawarikun (Kochi / Colt / 4yo)
Pedigree & Aptitude: Sired by Strong Return out of a Sakura Laurel mare. This blend of a miler sire and a stayer grandsire creates a balanced runner with front-running ability and tenacity. Excels in tough races.
Form & Condition: Experienced in high-level C1 races at Kochi. Ridden by master jockey Shuji Akaoka, he could leverage the inside draw for an efficient trip and show his competitive spirit.
2
Jun Orth (Hyogo / Colt / 6yo)
Pedigree & Aptitude: Sired by Came Home with a Brian’s Time grandsire. This mix of speed and stamina makes him suitable for deep dirt tracks and longer distances. Thrives in wars of attrition.
Form & Condition: A consistent performer, always finishing in the money in C2 class at Hyogo (Sonoda). His reliability in the competitive Sonoda environment proves his ability. Could be a threat if he can utilize his stamina from a mid-pack position.
5
Aitaka (Saga / Filly / 4yo)
Pedigree & Aptitude: By Eishin Flash out of a Deep Impact mare. While this suggests a turf profile, her maternal American bloodlines provide power for dirt. Highly adapted to Saga’s tight corners.
Form & Condition: A leading contender. Finished a close second in this race last year. Consistently performs at the top level in semi-graded stakes and A-class races. Paired with Saga’s rising star jockey Hayato Hida, she is a prime candidate to avenge last year’s loss.
8
Bell Bold Nine (Ohi / Colt / 5yo)
Pedigree & Aptitude: Sired by Makfi with a King Kamehameha grandsire. A well-balanced pedigree with both power and speed, capable of handling tough regional tracks.
Form & Condition: The main rival to Aitaka. Has winning experience in the C2 class at Ohi, the highest level of regional racing, suggesting his ability is comparable to A-class horses elsewhere. With top national jockey Yamato Ishikawa aboard, the team is serious. While new to the course, his raw talent could overpower the field.
11
Nirai Kanai Arrow (Saga / Colt / 3yo)
Pedigree & Aptitude: By Ares Barows out of a Kinshasa no Kiseki mare. Though his pedigree leans towards sprinting, his racing style shows underlying strength. He has the potential to overcome the distance challenge with youth and momentum.
Form & Condition: The “rising dragon” with the most momentum. His dominant victories in C-class races indicate he is a cut above. Although this is a significant step up in class, the 54kg weight allowance is a major advantage. If he can dictate the pace, he could achieve a stunning victory.
Other Noteworthy Entries
- #3 Bellwood Uzume: Distance seems too long.
- #4 Kiss Umai: Sprinter facing a tough distance and class jump.
- #6 Lenis: Lightweight but struggling in C1 class.
Race Simulation: Pacing and Decisive Moments
1
Early Stage: Battle for Position
After the start, #1 Himawarikun will push for a good position from the inside. From the outside, the energetic #11 Nirai Kanai Arrow will aim for the lead. #5 Aitaka will settle into an ideal spot in 3rd or 4th, watching the leaders, while #8 Bell Bold Nine will position himself in the front half of the mid-pack.
2
Mid-Race: Backstretch to 3rd Corner
The pace will be relatively calm before gradually picking up on the backstretch. Here, #8 Bell Bold Nine and jockey Yamato Ishikawa will likely make an early move from the outside, applying pressure to the leading group. How #11 Nirai Kanai Arrow responds will be crucial, while #5 Aitaka conserves energy on the inside, waiting for the right moment.
3
Final Stage: 4th Corner to Finish
Approaching the 4th corner, a breakaway group of Nirai Kanai Arrow, Aitaka, and Bell Bold Nine is expected. On Saga’s short straight, the position at the exit of the 4th corner is decisive. It will be a fierce battle: Aitaka aiming for an inside run, Bell Bold Nine powering through on the outside, and Nirai Kanai Arrow trying to hold on.
Key Forecasting Points: A Summary
① The “Class” of South Kanto C2
The difference in competition levels between regional racing districts is significant. The ability of Bell Bold Nine, a winner in Ohi’s C2 class, is likely equivalent to or even superior to graded stakes horses at Saga. Despite the risk of shipping, his raw talent cannot be ignored.
② Saga Aptitude & Past Performance
Aitaka’s second-place finish in this race last year and her familiarity with the Saga course give her a distinct advantage. Her course aptitude is second to none in this field, making her a highly reliable choice for the axis of any bet.
③ 3-Year-Old Momentum vs. Veteran Experience
While Nirai Kanai Arrow’s winning streak is impressive, this is a major step up in class. However, the rapidly improving 3-year-old benefits from a 54kg weight allowance, a significant advantage. If he can control the pace, he has the potential to defeat the older horses.
Conclusion and Recommended Approach
Recommended Horses (Horses to Watch)
- 【Top Pick】#5 Aitaka: Proven record, excellent form, and high course adaptability make her the most likely winner.
- 【Contender】#8 Bell Bold Nine: Impressive performances at Ohi. May have superior raw ability.
- 【Dark Horse】#11 Nirai Kanai Arrow: A 3-year-old with unknown potential. Could cause an upset with momentum and weight advantage.
- 【For Exotics】#1 Himawarikun, #2 Jun Orth: Experience in tougher regions is a plus. Himawarikun’s inside draw with jockey Akaoka is a threat.
Betting Strategy Tip
A trifecta formation, using Aitaka and Bell Bold Nine as the main axes and including Nirai Kanai Arrow, Himawarikun, and Jun Orth for third place, offers a good balance of probability and potential payout.
Get the Professional’s Final Picks Here
For the final selections from professional forecasters, considering last-minute track conditions, paddock appearance, and odds fluctuations, check out “Umai Baken” on netkeiba.See the Final Conclusion (netkeiba Umai Baken)
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