Key Takeaways
- ▸Mick Fire, ranked first by AI, faces a crucial test of mental focus.
- ▸Light Warrior, 8 years old, is in “perfect” condition, defying age.
- ▸Dateno Shogun’s exceptional training times clash with a low AI score, signaling high betting value.
- ▸Defending champ Kingston Boy and specialist Nansei White are strong, reliable contenders.
Race Overview
Event: 17th Katsushima Crown (SII)
Date: December 3, 2025
Course: Ohi Racecourse, Dirt 1800m (Outer)
The race starts on the front straight, minimizing draw impact and emphasizing horse ability. Intense position battles on the backstretch demand both stamina and acceleration, making it a true test of a thoroughbred’s skill and a jockey’s tactical prowess.
Winner’s Conditions
- Power: Larger horses (>500kg) thrive on Ohi’s demanding sand.
- Style: Fast-paced races favor strong mid-pack runners.
- Experience: Course suitability is key; past winners often repeat success.
In-Depth Contender Analysis
Mick Fire
AI SCORE210
The undefeated Triple Crown winner seeks a comeback. Blinkers used in training to sharpen focus. Trainer expresses high confidence.
Recent Training
- Nov 29: 64.5 (5F), 37.8 (3F) – Full Exertion
- Nov 23: 64.0 (5F), 37.9 (3F) – Easy Gallop (Blinkers)
- Nov 19: 65.5 (5F), 37.3 (3F) – Easy Gallop
Light Warrior
AI SCORE141
8-year-old veteran in prime form. Described as “perfect” by trainer. Weight of 59kg is a key factor.
Recent Training
- Nov 29: 37.8 (3F), 12.1 (1F) – Strong Pace
- Nov 22: 37.9 (3F), 12.1 (1F) – Strong Pace
- Off-track farm woodchip training
Dateno Shogun
AI SCORE81
The “monster” with exceptional training times. AI undervalues due to layoff, creating massive betting potential.
Recent Training
Recorded an explosive 35.8s for 3F on Nov 23rd, the fastest among all contenders.
Kingston Boy
AI Score: 181
Defending champion returning to his favored 1800m distance. High AI score makes him a reliable anchor bet for back-to-back wins.
Nansei White
AI Score: 129
A course specialist with a perfect in-the-money record at this distance. Considered highly reliable to finish in the top three.
Data-Driven Analysis
Training Time Comparison
Dateno Shogun35.8 (3F)
S
Light Warrior12.1 (1F)
A+
Kingston Boy12.1 (1F)
A
Nansei White37.2 (3F)
A
Mick Fire37.8 (3F)
B+
Bahaldar36.4 (3F)
B+
AI Score Ranking & Implications
- 1st: Mick Fire210
- 2nd: Kingston Boy181
- 3rd: Bahaldar (Dark Horse)167
- 4th: Light Warrior141
- 5th: Nansei White129
- 9th: Dateno Shogun (Undervalued)81
Insight: The AI highly rates past achievements (Mick Fire) and course suitability (Kingston Boy). However, it flags Bahaldar as a potential high-payout contender and likely undervalues Dateno Shogun due to limited recent data.
Conclusion & Betting Strategy
The 2025 Katsushima Crown is a clash of generations. The 2kg weight advantage for Mick Fire and Dateno Shogun is critical. The massive gap between Dateno Shogun’s training data and AI score presents the most compelling betting angle. Track condition on race day will be the final piece of the puzzle, potentially favoring power or speed.Get Final Prediction & Betting Strategy
*Note: This report is based on information available as of December 2, 2025. Please confirm official race information before placing any bets.*
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