A Comprehensive Race Analysis
Key Takeaways
Chukyo 2000m Course
A demanding track with steep uphill climbs and a spiral curve, requiring a blend of stamina and power.
Bloodline Tendencies
Heart’s Cry, Tony Bin, and Roberto lineages are favored for their power on Chukyo’s tough winter turf.
Race Pace Forecast
A slow initial pace is expected, escalating into a long-sprint battle that favors forwardly-placed horses with sustained speed.
Race Details
- Event:61st Chunichi Shimbun Hai (GIII)
- Date:December (Shiwasu)
- Venue:Chukyo Racecourse
- Distance:2000m Turf
- Type:Handicap Race
Dominant Bloodlines
Heart’s Cry Dominance
Progeny excel with sustained speed on the uphill finish. (e.g., Shake Your Heart)
Roberto Revival
Resilient power and stamina for attrition races on winter tracks.
Tony Bin Magic
Sustained finishing speed, particularly effective on left-handed tracks.
Course Analysis: Chukyo Turf 2000m
Unique Layout: The course is a left-handed circuit defined by two grueling 2.0m uphill climbs—one right after the start and another in the final straight. The spiral curve from the 3rd to 4th corner is a key feature, allowing horses to maintain momentum into the 412.5m long final stretch. This layout is a true test of both speed and stamina.
Winter Track Bias: In December, the turf is often heavy and slow, favoring “power-type” horses with strong footwork. European bloodlines and stamina-oriented Sunday Silence descendants thrive in these conditions.
Handicap Drama: The assigned weights are a crucial variable. A horse’s ability must be weighed against its handicap, making for an unpredictable and exciting race.
Leading Contenders
1. Shake Your Heart
1st Favorite: 4.3x
Lineage: By Heart’s Cry (out of Rumbarocca)
Analysis: Considered the most reliable anchor. Excellent course suitability and top form, finishing 2nd in the Andromeda Stakes despite a wide trip. Lineage is perfect for Chukyo’s demands.
Training: Final furlong of 12.3s indicates peak condition. Carries 56.5kg, but form suggests it can overcome the weight.
2. Family Time
2nd Favorite: 4.9x
Lineage: By Real Steel (out of Galileo mare)
Analysis: High-potential contender with a pedigree balancing speed and stamina. Galileo influence provides power for the climbs. Has a strong record after layoffs.
Training: S-rated workout shows impressive form. Carries a favorable 55kg for its open-class debut. A major threat if racing from a forward position.
3. Sinhalada
3rd Favorite: 5.3x
Lineage: By Kizuna (out of Sinharaiz)
Analysis: Highly-bred with an affinity for Chukyo. Won its last race with a powerful late surge, demonstrating Grade 1-level finishing ability. Long straight is a major advantage.
Training: Excellent movement in final workout. Running style is pace-dependent, but has the potential to overtake the entire field.
4. Meiner Mohnt
4th Favorite: 7.4x
Lineage: By Gold Ship
Analysis: A specialist in stamina and power, excelling on heavy tracks and uphill courses. Showed resilience in the October Stakes and benefits from a lack of strong front-runners here.
Training: Final workout was underwhelming (B- rating), raising some concerns. However, known to be a tough race competitor who could outperform training.
Dark Horses & Others
Red Valiente (11.8x): Expected to improve sharply in its second start after a layoff. Impressive 11.5s final furlong in training.
Reframing (19.1x): Hampered by slow pace last time but finished strong. Good record at Chukyo, a threat if the pace is fast.
June Take (14.3x): Kizuna offspring with potential for a comeback after an unlucky run in the Kyoto Daishoten.
Onyankopon (17.0x): Racing for the second consecutive week. Aggressive schedule could pay off for this G3 winner.
Peace One Duck: Wild card. Could hold on if it manages to secure a solo, uncontested lead.
Other Runners: Ho O Prosan, Win Edel, Dandysm, and others present various levels of potential based on race development.
Training Data Deep Dive
| Horse | Time (4F-1F) | Rating | Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Family Time | 53.6-39.1-25.3-12.4 | S | Powerful climb despite layoff. Ready for a strong first-up performance. |
| Shake Your Heart | 54.0-39.6-25.6-12.3 | A | Average overall time, but final furlong is sharp. Stable at a high level. |
| Sinhalada | 66.2-50.9-37.2-12.1 | A | Finished strongly after a long run. Further improvement expected. |
| Red Valiente | 85.3-69.3-54.1-38.4-11.5 | A | Impressive sharpness at 11.5s. Significant improvement in second start. |
| Meiner Mohnt | 83.2-66.4-51.6-37.8-12.5 | B- | Underwhelming time despite strong effort. Partner drill loss is concerning. |
Final Judgment
◎
Main Pick: Shake Your Heart
Few weaknesses. Excellent bloodline, form, training, and a versatile running style make it the top choice.
○
Contender: Family Time
Top-tier potential. S-rated training and a suitable bloodline indicate a strong open-class debut.
▲
Dark Horse: Sinhalada
Grade 1-level finishing power. Can win if the race unfolds favorably for its closing style.
△
Supporting Picks: Red Valiente, Meiner Mohnt, Reframing
Each has specific advantages—improvement, pace, or course suitability—that warrant consideration.
☆
Wild Card: Peace One Duck
A longshot chance if it can secure and maintain a solo lead throughout the race.
This analysis combines bloodline suitability, recent form, and training data. Final decisions may require adjustments based on race-day conditions. For detailed predictions and betting strategies, please refer to the official release on race day.
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