目次 A Thorough Compar…
Impressive workout times but temperament is a crucial challenge.
Significant mental growth could enable a dominant front-running strategy.
A uniquely demanding course where agility, power, and “Grand Prix suitability” are key.
Progeny of Rey de Oro are numerous, signaling a potential new influential bloodline.
The 70th Arima Kinen (G1, 2500m turf) will be held on December 28th, 2025, at Nakayama Racecourse. This race is a “Dream Race” where the year’s top horses, selected by fan vote, compete for the title of the strongest. The central theme for 2025 is the clash of “Grand Prix suitability” across generations, featuring last year’s champion Regaleira, Japan Derby winner Danon Decile, and other G1 winners like Justin Palace and Tastiéra, who will be retiring after this race. New challengers like Shin Emperor, who has gained international experience, and the rapidly ascending star Museum Mile are also expected to participate. The Nakayama 2500m course, with its challenging layout, steep hill, and winter track conditions, demands both true ability and course suitability. This report analyzes the condition of contenders based on reliable information and 1-week prior workout data, examines the course’s tendencies and pedigree trends, and offers prediction points for the Grand Prix.
The Nakayama Racecourse turf 2500m course is exceptionally unique. The start is located before the 3rd corner of the outer course, requiring a full lap and a half. The short distance from the start to the first corner poses a significant challenge for horses in wide gates, increasing the risk of “distance loss”. This is why an “inside gate advantage, outside gate disadvantage” is traditionally observed, making the gate draw a crucial factor.
The course involves navigating six corners and a steep hill of approximately 2.2 meters which horses must ascend twice. This makes the course extremely demanding, requiring agility, maneuverability, stamina, and power. This is the essence of “Grand Prix suitability.”
Historically, the course has favored “front-runners and stalkers.” However, recent data suggests that closers and deep closers have been more successful, indicating a shift in advantageous running styles. The gate draw will undoubtedly have a decisive impact on the race development, especially with a large field.
| Element | Tendencies and Characteristics | Analysis and Countermeasures |
|---|---|---|
| Course Layout | Small track, 6 corners, 2 steep hills | Agility (cornering) and power to handle hills are essential. |
| Favorable Gates | Inside to middle gates are advantageous (outside gates cause significant distance loss) | For outside gates, jockey’s guidance and race development are needed. |
| Favorable Running Styles | Front-runners and stalkers are central (closers and deep closers have emerged recently) | Mobility to secure a good position by the 4th corner is key. |
| Required Abilities | Grand Prix suitability, stamina, power | Mental strength to handle pace changes and tough track conditions. |
S
The Shock of the “Blistering Time” from a 3-Year-Old Newcomer
Profile: A leading 3-year-old with excellent speed and explosive power, benefiting from a 56kg weight allowance.
Workout Analysis: An exceptional 6F time of 78.5s (Last 1F 11.4s) on the Ritto CW course. The stable calls it the “best workout,” though it was faster than planned.
Challenges: The blistering time could indicate the horse is overly keen. Mental control and maintaining composure will be the biggest challenge over 2500m.
A
The Fugitive’s “Mental Growth” to Dominate the Race
Profile: Takarazuka Kinen winner known for overwhelming front-running ability.
Workout Analysis: Excellent time of 6F 79.8s (Last 1F 11.4s). More importantly, showed improved mental control and composure, calmly overtaking its partner.
Impact: Improved composure reduces the risk of self-destruction. If it can lead solo and dictate the pace, a repeat victory is plausible.
A
The Queen’s Return, Aiming for an Unprecedented Feat
Profile: Last year’s winner, aiming to be the first filly to win back-to-back Arima Kinens.
Workout Analysis: Companion workout on Miho W course with a potent final furlong of 11.3s. Showed smooth acceleration and steady improvement.
Prospects: Her experience and proven G1 ability are major strengths. A similar performance to last year makes a repeat victory highly probable.
B+
The Derby Winner’s Pride
No signs of fatigue after the Japan Cup. Workout showed good rhythm with a last 1F of 11.3s. Growth potential is a significant asset.
B+
Towards the Final Stage
In his final race, training is ambitious. Was pushed hard in a workout, indicating thorough preparation. Well-suited for Nakayama 2500m.
B
The Young Warrior Who Knows the World
Physically enhanced after European campaigns. Stable emphasizes “good physique and increased power.” May have adapted to power-demanding tracks.
C
Tough Contender
Light training to prioritize recovery. Despite a tough schedule, condition is good. Favors the Nakayama course and could perform well in a grueling race.
Pedigree is an indispensable factor. The 2025 field highlights several clear trends.
A striking feature is the number of Rey de Oro progeny. His pedigree strongly imparts the “mobility” and “power” required for Nakayama. These 4-year-olds are poised to reach their peak.
The race has a history of victories by Deep Impact progeny, especially those with European stamina bloodlines on the dam’s side, like Justin Palace.
Horses from Stay Gold, Roberto, and Kizuna lineages often perform well at the unique 2500m distance. Danon Decile’s Epiphaneia lineage fits this profile.
The champion will be a horse combining speed, strength, intelligence, and luck. Key factors to watch:
Disclaimer: This report is a simulation and analysis of the Arima Kinen scheduled for December 28, 2025. Horse names, dates, and race outcome predictions are based on provided research materials. Betting on horse races is at your own risk.
December 22, 20…