【東京記念2025予…
最新レース予想[Updated: 2026-01-23…
[Updated: 2026-01-23 19:37:02] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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Our top picks for today are Chimal in Race 1 and Grass Greed in Race 3.
Utilizing AI-driven win probability and expected return values to identify undervalued horses with significant potential.
Chimal is our strong favorite, boasting an impressive AI Expected Value of 181. Its robust pedigree and excellent training condition further bolster our confidence.
With an astounding AI Show Rate (複勝率) of 96.1%, Grass Greed is virtually a ‘sure bet’ for a top finish. We highly recommend a Trifecta (3連単) ticket with Grass Greed fixed in first place.
Our suggested bets include an Exacta (馬単) with Chimal as the key horse, and a Trifecta (3連単) with Grass Greed fixed in first place.
On December 4, 2025, the Ooi Racecourse will host another thrilling day of racing. Winter meets at Ooi often present complex factors, including the use of anti-freezing agents on the track and changes in sand composition due to dry conditions. In this environment of heightened uncertainty, our advanced AI, combined with expert analysis, aims to uncover the ‘inevitable’ outcomes.
Our comprehensive analysis integrates traditional handicapping factors such as pedigree, training data, and stable comments, with cutting-edge AI prediction data. This includes win probability, quinella rate (連対率), show rate (複勝率), and Expected Value (EV). Crucially, the AI Predicted Expected Value (EV) serves as a key indicator, highlighting discrepancies between a horse’s ‘probability of winning’ and its ‘anticipated odds’. An EV exceeding 100 suggests a strong ‘buy’ opportunity, while anything below indicates a ‘pass’ or ‘monitor’.
For Grass Greed, an astonishing Show Rate (複勝率) of 96.1% stands out as an exceptionally high confidence indicator.
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For Chimal, an Expected Value of 181 signals a rare combination of near-certain victory potential and excellent betting value.
Post Time: 14:30 | Distance: 1600m (Right-Handed Inner Track)
AI Evaluation:
Analysis: Chimal leads across all key AI metrics. Its exceptional Expected Value of 181 strongly indicates that its true ability is significantly underestimated by the current odds, presenting a prime betting opportunity.
Pedigree: Sired by Espoir City, out of a mare by Henrythenavigator, Chimal boasts a lineage perfectly suited for Ooi’s challenging mile races. This breeding combination promises superior early speed, tenacious late acceleration, and the stamina required for tough track conditions.
Training Report: On November 30 (Ooi Outer Course, Good track), Chimal clocked an impressive 68.1 – 53.0 – 38.6 (handily), indicating sustained excellent form. In a workout, it matched stride with veteran C2 class horse Lindapokke. Trainer Fujita commented, “The horse has been in good order since its last race, and we expect it to contend for the top spots.”
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Jockey Factor: Ridden by Riku Takami (☆), benefiting from a 55kg weight allowance. This lighter impost is expected to be a significant advantage in the race’s crucial final stages.
AI Win Probability: 34.0% (2nd), AI Expected Value: 157 (6th).
A transfer from JRA, Danon Cruiser possesses an excellent pedigree, sired by Lord Kanaloa. Its AI Expected Value is lower than Chimal’s, likely due to the AI factoring in potential overvaluation caused by its esteemed lineage. Drawing the No. 1 post position also carries the risk of being covered in kickback if it’s slow out of the gate.
AI Win Probability: 9.5%, Expected Value: 168.
Sired by Noble Mission (full brother to Frankel), Jackpot exhibits strong stamina and underlying power. Trainer Arai commented, “This is its second time at this distance, and preparations are going smoothly.” Jackpot could be a crucial factor in the exotic bets.
With the addition of blinkers, Horai Sho is expected to show significant improvement. Trainer Takano commented, “We want to see even more sharpness.” While its training form might appear slightly lacking, it could be a horse that performs better in actual races.
AI Expected Value: 146. Although its last performance was somewhat underwhelming, Trainer Sakamoto stated, “There’s no decline in its condition.”
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Danon Cruiser is expected to settle comfortably in a good position without overexerting itself. Chimal should secure a smooth position in 3rd to 4th place. The pace is anticipated to be moderate. As they round the 3rd to 4th turn, Chimal will make its move from the outside, while Danon Cruiser, hugging the rails, might experience some traffic issues. Entering the final straight, Chimal will take the lead, utilizing its lighter weight allowance to pull away. Despite a fierce chase from Danon Cruiser, Chimal’s race experience and consistent form should secure the victory. Jackpot is likely to be battling for third place.
Post Time: 15:35 | Distance: 1600m (Right-Handed Inner Track)
AI Evaluation:
Analysis: A Show Rate (複勝率) of 96.1% is truly remarkable, signaling Grass Greed as an almost ‘certainty’ to hit the board. Its Expected Value of 143 suggests a horse with abilities far surpassing the C2 class.
Pedigree: Sired by Hokko Tarumae, out of a mare by Zenno Rob Roy, Grass Greed possesses a pedigree that has proven dominant in local racing, especially in Ooi’s middle-distance events.
Training Report: On November 30 (Ooi Outer Course, Good track), Grass Greed registered a strong 67.3 – 52.3 – 37.9, indicating significant improvement after its latest workout. It outpaced C2 class stablemate Vector Mach by 0.1 seconds. Trainer Uesugi commented, “This horse has a lot of power, and we have high expectations for its debut race since transferring.”
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Jockey: Guided by Takayuki Yano, a renowned master jockey at Ooi. His skill is consistently proven in guiding talented horses to victory.
AI Win Probability: 16.6% (2nd). Sired by Kinshasa no Kiseki, with Kingmambo in its maternal line, Sweet Lotus possesses superior speed. Trainer Mashima commented, “If the horse runs without worrying about the new course, it should do well.”
Ranked in the AI’s third-tier group, Escaramusa boasts a stable race record of (3-1-2-5). If it can navigate efficiently from the innermost gate, a top finish is well within reach. Trainer Matsuura commented, “Its condition remains good.”
A potential dark horse contender. Sired by California Chrome, Villa Starly has an AI Expected Value of 142. Trainer Hashimoto commented, “Its condition has improved after one race.” Significant progress from its previous outing is anticipated.
A World Ace progeny making its transfer debut. Trainer Fukunaga commented, “Based on its past performance, it seems capable, but how it handles the new course is a question.” Training: ‘Excellent condition.’
Sweet Lotus is expected to claim the lead. Grass Greed will settle in a prime position, around 2nd to 3rd. Just past the 3rd corner, Grass Greed will effortlessly begin its advance. By the 4th corner, it will draw alongside the leader, then pull away for a solo sprint in the straight. The battle for second place will see Escaramusa and Villa Starly challenging the tenacious Sweet Lotus. It is highly probable that either Escaramusa or Villa Starly will secure the second spot.
| Gate | Horse Name | AI Win Prob. | AI Exp. Value | Training Grade | Stable Comment | Overall Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | チマル | 34.7% | 181 | A | Confident (Top Contention) | ◎ Top Pick |
| 1 | ダノンクルーザー | 34.0% | 157 | B+ | Optimistic (Shows Ability) | ○ Challenger |
| 3 | ジャックポット | 9.5% | 168 | B | Steady (Smooth Prep) | ▲ Dark Horse |
| 2 | ホウライショウ | 6.9% | 158 | C | Tactical (Blinkers On) | △ Place Contender |
| 7 | サブノルアナ | 4.7% | 146 | C | Steady (No Decline) | △ Place Contender |
| 10 | ドッチナンダイ | 4.2% | 167 | B | Cautious (Needs Race) | Eliminate |
| 4 | カルサパラストリス | 3.5% | 161 | B | Cautious (Needs Race) | Eliminate |
| 6 | パワーディライト | 0.9% | 121 | C | Reserved (Needs Spark) | Eliminate |
| 5 | ヴィクストリア | 0.6% | 126 | C | Steady (Improving) | Eliminate |
| 8 | マリーラークスパー | 0.4% | 84 | C | Cautious (Needs Race) | Eliminate |
Analysis Comment: While Chimal and Danon Cruiser form a formidable ‘duo,’ Chimal holds a slight edge based on AI Expected Value and training assessment. Jackpot emerges as a critical factor for exotic bets.
| Gate | Horse Name | AI Win Prob. | AI Exp. Value | Training Grade | Stable Comment | Overall Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | グラスグリード | 53.6% | 143 | S | Confident (High Expectation) | ◎ Sure Bet |
| 5 | スイートロータス | 16.6% | 133 | B | Steady (Smooth Prep) | ○ Challenger |
| 1 | エスカラムサ | 7.4% | 139 | B+ | Confident (Strong Contention) | ▲ Third Choice |
| 6 | アンタンシオン | 6.2% | 125 | B | Cautious (New Course) | △ Place Contender |
| 12 | ヴィラスターリ | 5.8% | 142 | B+ | Positive (Expected Improvement) | ☆ Special Mention |
| 10 | エキゾチックガール | 2.6% | 138 | B | Optimistic (Good Race) | Eliminate |
| 7 | ホウオウチェスター | 1.6% | 104 | B | Steady (Consistent) | Eliminate |
| 4 | クリプトス | 1.3% | 146 | B | Steady (Gate Dependent) | Eliminate |
| 2 | ショーシャンク | 0.8% | 157 | C | Steady (Trying Hard) | Eliminate |
| 11 | キバルスター | 0.8% | 123 | B | Reserved (Race Flow Key) | Eliminate |
Analysis Comment: Grass Greed’s statistics are in a league of their own, making this largely a race to find its closest challengers. Villa Starly’s high Expected Value and noticeable improvement in training are particularly appealing.