Comprehensive Analysis: Pedigree & Training for the Chunichi Shimbun Hai 2025
Analysis by AI
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Race Name: The 61st Chunichi Shimbun Hai (GIII) Date: December 13, 2025 Racecourse: Chukyo Racecourse Distance: Turf 2000m
Key Takeaways
Sinhanaada has displayed astonishing training times at Miho Wood Course (W) with “64.7-11.5,” indicating she is in peak condition.
Chukyo’s Turf 2000m demands exceptional stamina and sustained power. Horses with bloodlines from Tony Bin or the Roberto lineage often hold a significant advantage.
Family Time, boasting European bloodlines (dam’s sire Galileo), is expected to perform strongly in a demanding race scenario.
Win Edel has significantly improved her personal best training times, suggesting she is reaching peak form and stands out as a strong dark horse contender.
Due to the nature of handicap races, recent momentum and upward trajectory are often more direct indicators of success than past performance.
The Demands of Chukyo Turf 2000m and Bloodline Biases
Chukyo Turf 2000m (using Course A) begins at the bottom of the slope in front of the stands, completing a full circuit. Its primary features include navigating the steep uphill climb to the finish line twice and a long, gentle straight.
Given this challenging course setup, horses possessing pure speed are often at a disadvantage. Instead, those with inherent stamina and sustained power, such as descendants of “Tony Bin,” “Roberto,” or the robust European lineage of “Sadler’s Wells,” tend to excel.
Evaluating ‘Momentum’ in Handicap Races
The Chunichi Shimbun Hai is a handicap race, meaning top performers are assigned heavier weights, while rising stars often receive lighter, more favorable handicaps.
Consequently, favorites are not always the highest-achieving horses. Instead, attention often gravitates towards horses showing significant improvement in recent training sessions or those with strong momentum from recent victories in allowance races. This underscores that, especially on the challenging winter track at Chukyo, a horse’s “current condition” is a more critical determinant of performance than its past record.
Sire: Rayon d’Or (Roberto blood enhances Chukyo suitability)
Dam: Sinhadipa (Possesses G1-level potential from a prestigious lineage)
Analysis: A powerful fusion of sire’s strength and dam’s sire’s sustained speed. Chukyo 2000m is considered his ideal distance.
Training & Condition Analysis:
December 3 (Wednesday) Miho W Course: “64.7-49.7-35.7-11.5”. The overall time of “64.7” was among the best on the day. He is judged to be in peak condition.
Previous Race Analysis:
October 25, Niigata 11R, Uonuma Stakes (1st place). Jockey Shun Samejima commented, “It was a commanding performance… he broke clear early and seemed to be idling at the end.” Evaluation: A top-class performance for his class debut in a graded race. His unwavering late kick is a significant asset.
Family Time – Contender
European Pedigree Poised for Tough Middle-Distance Challenges
Sex/Age: Colt 4
Jockey: Hiroshi Matsuyama
Stable: Ritto, Koichi Ishizaka
Bloodline Analysis:
Sire: Real Steel (Speed and burst acceleration)
Dam: Prioborn IRE (Dam’s Sire: Galileo – European stamina and deep potential)
Training & Condition Analysis:
December 3 (Wednesday) Ritto Hill Course: “53.1 – 12.7 (ridden hard)”. Above average. This final workout could trigger a significant improvement in his form.
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Previous Race Analysis:
Secured a victory by settling well in a slow-paced race. His versatility makes him less susceptible to race tempo.
December 3 (Wednesday) Ritto Hill Course: “53.3 – 12.5 (ridden hard)”. Excellent overall and final furlong times, indicating he’s in peak form.
Previous Race Analysis:
Showed great promise in the Andromeda Stakes (2nd place). His consistency and ability to adapt to rivals are key strengths.
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Win Edel – The Ascendant Dark Horse
Career-Best Performance in Training, Full of Vitality
Sex/Age: Mare 5
Jockey: Undecided
Stable: Ritto, Yoshida
Bloodline Analysis:
Sire: Rulership (King Kamehameha lineage)
Dam’s Sire: Stay Gold (Known for fighting spirit)
Training & Condition Analysis:
December 5 (Friday) Ritto CW Course: “95.2 – 12.0 (ridden hard)”. Significantly improved her previous best time by approximately 2 seconds, showcasing remarkable progress.
Red Valiente – Second Race After Layoff
Significant Improvement Expected in Second Start Off Layoff
Sex/Age: Colt 6
Jockey: Atsuya Nishimura
Stable: Ritto, Mitsumasa Nakauchida
Bloodline Analysis:
Sire: Deep Impact
Dam: Chilean G1 winner (South American bloodline known for toughness)
Training & Condition Analysis:
December 4 (Thursday) Ritto CW Course: “83.8 – 11.6 (hand ridden)”. Showed sharp acceleration with minimal effort. This suggests a progressive curve for a horse that improves with racing.
Meiner Kelerius – Potential Upset
The Embodiment of Tony Bin Cross
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Sex/Age: Colt 5
Jockey: Undecided
Stable: Miho, Takeshi Okumura
Bloodline Analysis:
Sire: Rulership (Dam’s Sire: Tony Bin)
Characteristic: Excels in stamina-driven races, delivering a long, sustained drive.
Training & Condition Analysis:
December 3 (Wednesday) Miho W Course: A strong time of “65.6 (hand ridden)”. Indicates better condition than his previous race.
Vincencio – The Three-Year-Old Challenge
Young Challenger from an Illustrious Pedigree
Sex/Age: Colt 3
Jockey: Makoto Sugihara
Stable: Miho, Issei Mori
Bloodline Analysis:
Sire: Real Steel
Granddam: Cesario (One of Japan’s finest bloodlines)
Characteristic: Significant pedigree appeal for turf middle-distance races.
Training & Condition Analysis:
December 4 (Thursday) Miho W Course: While finishing behind a higher-class horse, he received a solid workout. His movement remains good.
Other Potential Contenders & Dark Horses
June Take: By Kizuna. Power type, but still improving in training.
Reframing: By King Halo. Despite being 7 years old, his training indicates good movement, suggesting a chance in a tough race.
Meiner Mont: By Gold Ship. Showing more agility in training, indicating potential for improvement.
Melioreum: By Cheval Grand. While his times are fast, he runs in a single gear and might struggle with adaptability.
Data Comparison: Training Times & Bloodline Trends Overview
Training Performance Comparison Table
Horse Name
Course
Latest Workout
Overall Time
Last 1F
Brief Comment / Condition
Best Time Comparison
Sinhanaada
Miho W
12/3(Wed)
64.7
11.5
Demonstrated superior power (↑ improved)
Density far surpasses previous best
Win Edel
Ritto CW
12/5(Fri)
95.2
12.0
Clear signs of improvement
Improved previous best by approx. 2 seconds
Family Time
Ritto Hill
12/3(Wed)
53.1
12.7
Significant improvement post-workout
Above average good time
Red Valiente
Ritto CW
12/4(Thu)
83.8
11.6
More agile after one run
Sharp acceleration with minimal effort
Meiner Kelerius
Miho W
12/3(Wed)
65.6
12.0
Indications of improved form
Recorded excellent time with minimal effort
Shake Your Heart
Ritto Hill
12/3(Wed)
53.3
12.5
Consistent training
Strong finishing stamina
Analysis Result: Based on the numbers, Sinhanaada and Win Edel exhibit the most significant impact. Notably, Win Edel’s substantial improvement on her personal best suggests that the 5-year-old mare might be reaching the peak of her growth, a crucial indicator.
Bloodline Trend Analysis
King Kamehameha Lineage (Power & Sustained Speed): Includes Sinhanaada, Win Edel, Meiner Kelerius, among others. These horses possess the power necessary to conquer Chukyo’s demanding slopes.
Tony Bin Blood (Left-Handed Track & Long Straight): Features Shake Your Heart, Meiner Kelerius, and others. Known for their proficiency on left-handed tracks, they often exhibit a distinct late surge on the final straight.
Chunichi Shimbun Hai 2025 Prediction: Key Factors for Our Conclusion
Is Sinhanaada’s form genuinely top-tier?: Based on her exceptional training and previous race, it’s highly probable she is in peak condition and ready to perform at a graded level.
The Impact of Handicap Weights: In this handicap race, horses showing rapid improvement (like Win Edel) with potentially lighter weights could outperform more established horses carrying heavier burdens.
Course Suitability & Bloodline: Chukyo’s demanding 2000m turf course strongly favors stamina and sustained power. Horses with Tony Bin, Roberto, or European stamina influences (e.g., Galileo) are well-positioned for success.
Recent Momentum vs. Past Records: Winter Chukyo conditions emphasize current fitness and upward trends. Pay close attention to horses that have recently excelled or shown significant improvement in workouts, rather than solely relying on past G1 or G2 placings.