[Updated: 2026-01-23…
[Updated: 2026-01-23 20:09:40] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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Scheduled for December 14, 2025, at Nakayama Racecourse, the 18th Capella Stakes (GIII) stands as a premier contest for dirt sprinters. This year, all eyes are on the thrilling confrontation between a new generation of 3-year-olds with strong American pedigrees and the seasoned veterans of the track. The challenging Nakayama Dirt 1200m course, characterized by its turf start and demanding uphill finish, will be a critical factor. This in-depth analysis delves into the pedigree, training data, and previous race performances of the prospective runners to predict the ultimate champion.
The 2025 Capella Stakes promises an electrifying showdown between highly promising 3-year-olds boasting American bloodlines and battle-hardened veteran dirt sprinters.
The Nakayama Dirt 1200m is a notoriously tricky course where the turf start and the steep uphill climb before the finish line are pivotal to success.
T O Elvis stands out as a formidable favorite, showcasing an impressive final furlong split of 11.9 seconds in his last workout, earning top marks for his sharp finish.
Talented 3-year-olds like Yamanin Chelqui and Ecoro Azel have recorded excellent times in their training, indicating they are in peak condition for the race.
Last year’s champion, Gabby’s Sister, leads a strong contingent of veterans, including Kurojishi Jo, who are keenly eyeing a comeback or title defense.
Nakayama Dirt 1200m is one of JRA’s most challenging courses, renowned for its unique layout that makes it a true “specialist’s stage” where horse suitability directly dictates victory.
Age/Sex: Colt, 3
Weight: 56kg
Jockey: Shun Samejima
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Stable: Ritto, Daisuke Takayanagi
Sired by Volatile (known for American speed and precocity) out of a mare by Curlin (a two-time American classic winner). This pedigree combines raw speed from the sire with the stamina and power from the dam’s side, crucial for handling Nakayama’s challenging uphill finish. A “speed × power” cross perfectly suited for this course.
S (Excellent)
On December 10 (Wednesday), clocked an exceptional “53.8 – 38.2 – 24.3 – 11.9” over the Ritto uphill track. The final furlong of 11.9 seconds is particularly noteworthy, indicating superb acceleration. A week prior, he posted powerful times on the CW course. His cardiorespiratory fitness is immaculate, showing no signs of rust despite the layoff. “Fresh but in prime condition.”
Age/Sex: Colt, 3
Weight: 58kg
Jockey: Mirai Iwata
Stable: Ritto, Nakamura
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Sired by Four Wheel Drive (a son of American Pharoah, showing adaptability to Japanese dirt conditions) out of a mare by Yamanin Seraphim (a Sunday Silence line, known for affinity with Japanese tracks). This hybrid Japanese-American pedigree is well-suited for the turf-to-dirt transition of the Nakayama Dirt 1200m.
A+ (Extremely Good)
On December 10 (Wednesday), he posted an outstanding “51.8 – 38.0 – 24.5 – 12.4” over the Ritto uphill track, an exceptionally fast overall time. His condition improved significantly from the previous week, and a strong drive in training has ignited his competitive spirit. This performance suggests he has the power to handle the challenging 58kg impost. “Excellent preparation.”
Age/Sex: Colt, 3
Weight: 56kg
Jockey: Daichi Danno
Stable: Ritto, Hideyuki Mori
Sired by Shancelot, out of a mare by Orientate (both American Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners). This is a “sprint-specialized” pedigree, embodying the “American-bred, immediate impact sprinter” type that trainer Hideyuki Mori excels with.
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A (Stable)
On December 11 (Thursday), recorded “52.9 – 38.0 – 24.9 – 12.6” over the Ritto uphill track. A week prior, Jockey Danno guided him to a blistering workout, completing the bulk of his preparation. His final workout was strong but effortless, indicating peak physical and mental condition. “Form maintained exceptionally.”
Age/Sex: Filly, 4
Weight: 56kg
Jockey: Hayato Yoshida
Stable: Miho, Kazunari Mori
Sired by Apollo Kingdom (known for toughness in dirt races) out of a mare by Special Week (renowned for stamina). Her pedigree points to deep staying power rather than pure speed, making her a force in grinding, stamina-sapping contests. As last year’s victor, her course suitability is unequivocally proven.
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A (Upper Tier)
On December 10 (Wednesday), she clocked “52.7 – 38.8 – 25.5 – 12.7” over the Miho uphill track. Her powerful stride exudes the strength needed to tackle Nakayama’s steep climb without difficulty. “Powerful footwork.” Her strong workout a week prior confirms meticulous preparation for a potential title defense.
The Capella Stakes is known for its unpredictability, with longshots often delivering surprising performances.
At 6 years old, he’s showing career-best form. Recorded the fastest time on the Monbetsu uphill track. His sire, Candy Ride, passes on potent speed, which remains fully intact.
A son of Furioso, a dominant force in regional racing. Posted excellent times on the Ritto uphill track. He could be a major player if the race develops into a grueling battle of attrition.
Displayed a powerful late surge in his final workout. If he can secure a smooth, wide run, he possesses the potential for a breakthrough performance.
Posted exceptional times in his workout without being pushed. With no concerns about his condition, his talent on short dirt courses is fully blossoming.
Sired by Asia Express, a stallion known to produce specialists for the Nakayama Dirt 1200m. Showing better movement than in his previous race, a significant improvement is anticipated.
| Horse Name | Age/Sex | Sire | Dam’s Sire | Final Workout (Dec 10, 11) | Short Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecoro Azel | Colt, 3 | Shancelot | Orientate | Rit uphill 52.9-12.6 (Easy) | Form maintained |
| A Tracks | Colt, 4 | New Year’s Day | Symboli Kris S | Rit uphill 54.1-12.2 (Easy) | Brisk movement |
| Gabby’s Sister | Filly, 4 | Apollo Kingdom | Special Week | Miho uphill 52.7-12.7 (Easy) | Powerful stride |
| Culture Day | Filly, 4 | Fine Needle | Meiner Love | Rit CW 52.9-11.0 (Easy) | No decline in form |
| Candy Drive | Colt, 6 | Candy Ride | Empire Maker | Monbetsu uphill 35.0-11.8 (Strong) | Best form recently |
| Kurojishi Jo | Colt, 6 | Furioso | Special Week | Rit uphill 51.3-12.8 (Strong) | Good condition maintained |
| Sunrise Amour | Colt, 6 | Maurice | Taiki Shuttle | Rit uphill 51.7-12.3 (Easy) | Excellent physique & movement |
| Jasper Gold | Gelding, 7 | Khozan | Put It Back | Rit uphill 52.9-12.9 (Moderately Strong) | Lacking lightness |
| Star Pescaori | Filly, 5 | Sinister Minister | Genuine | Rit uphill 56.2-13.1 (Easy) | Sure-footed |
| Tagano Mist | Filly, 4 | Majestic Warrior | Empire Maker | Rit uphill 52.5-12.2 (Strong) | Powerful late surge |
| Chikappa | Colt, 4 | Real Steel | Into Mischief | Rit uphill 52.4-13.2 (Strong) | Transforms in races |
| T O Elvis | Colt, 3 | Volatile | Curlin | Rit uphill 53.8-11.9 (Strong) | Fresh but in prime condition |
| Don Amitie | Colt, 5 | Asia Express | King Halo | Rit uphill 54.9-12.1 (Strong) | Better movement than last race |
| Nitto Basil | Colt, 5 | Danon Legend | That’s the Plenty | Miho uphill 54.3-12.6 (Strong) | Good energy, but… |
| Pod Vader | Colt, 3 | Leontes | Daiwa Major | Miho uphill 53.3-12.0 (Easy) | Excellent preparation |
| Yamanin Chelqui | Colt, 3 | Four Wheel Drive | Yamanin Seraphim | Rit uphill 51.8-12.4 (Strong) | Excellent preparation |
The 2025 Capella Stakes is set to be a captivating spectacle, largely defined by whether the explosive speed of American-bred 3-year-olds like T O Elvis and Yamanin Chelqui can conquer the unique challenges of Nakayama’s dirt course. Our extensive training analysis reveals both colts have posted superior workout times, underscoring their immense potential. T O Elvis’s electrifying 11.9-second final furlong split, in particular, hints at the kind of decisive acceleration often seen in Capella Stakes winners.
However, the proven resilience of seasoned veterans like last year’s champion, Gabby’s Sister, and the revitalized Sunrise Amour ensures this will be no easy feat. The strategic pace of the race, especially from the front-runners and those breaking from the crucial Gate 1, will undoubtedly hold the key to victory. Prepare for a thrilling conclusion as generations of speedsters battle for supremacy!
© 2025 Capella Stakes Analysis Team. All rights reserved.