[Updated: 2026-01-23 20:09:40] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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- Overview: The 18th Capella Stakes (GIII)
- Key Takeaways for the Capella Stakes 2025
- Course Analysis: The “Magic” of Nakayama Dirt 1200m – A Course Demanding True Specialists
- Thorough Analysis of Strong Contenders: Pedigree × Training × Previous Race Performance
- Analysis of Dark Horses and Longshots
- Full Entry List: Training & Pedigree Data
- Conclusion and Outlook: The Clash of New and Veteran Speedsters
Overview: The 18th Capella Stakes (GIII)
Scheduled for December 14, 2025, at Nakayama Racecourse, the 18th Capella Stakes (GIII) stands as a premier contest for dirt sprinters. This year, all eyes are on the thrilling confrontation between a new generation of 3-year-olds with strong American pedigrees and the seasoned veterans of the track. The challenging Nakayama Dirt 1200m course, characterized by its turf start and demanding uphill finish, will be a critical factor. This in-depth analysis delves into the pedigree, training data, and previous race performances of the prospective runners to predict the ultimate champion.
Key Takeaways for the Capella Stakes 2025
New Generation vs. Veteran Speedsters: A High-Stakes Clash
The 2025 Capella Stakes promises an electrifying showdown between highly promising 3-year-olds boasting American bloodlines and battle-hardened veteran dirt sprinters.
Navigating the Unique Challenges of Nakayama Dirt 1200m
The Nakayama Dirt 1200m is a notoriously tricky course where the turf start and the steep uphill climb before the finish line are pivotal to success.
T O Elvis Emerges as Strongest Contender
T O Elvis stands out as a formidable favorite, showcasing an impressive final furlong split of 11.9 seconds in his last workout, earning top marks for his sharp finish.
Rising Stars: The Promising 3-Year-Old Contingent
Talented 3-year-olds like Yamanin Chelqui and Ecoro Azel have recorded excellent times in their training, indicating they are in peak condition for the race.
Veterans Aim for Comeback and Defense
Last year’s champion, Gabby’s Sister, leads a strong contingent of veterans, including Kurojishi Jo, who are keenly eyeing a comeback or title defense.
Course Analysis: The “Magic” of Nakayama Dirt 1200m – A Course Demanding True Specialists
Nakayama Dirt 1200m is one of JRA’s most challenging courses, renowned for its unique layout that makes it a true “specialist’s stage” where horse suitability directly dictates victory.
Turf Start: The Initial Speed Battle and Gate Bias
- The race begins on a turf section, with a significant distance before merging onto the dirt course. This structural design often gives a physical advantage to horses starting from outer gates, allowing them to run longer on the turf.
- While general data suggests an advantage for outer gates, the Capella Stakes itself has seen the innermost gate (Gate 1) claim the most victories, with 4 wins. This trend is often attributed to horses with exceptional early speed launching from the inside, navigating the course with minimal distance loss.
- Therefore, evaluating gate positions requires a nuanced approach: acknowledging the general “outer gate advantage” while also recognizing the potential for an “innermost gate advantage” for horses capable of an explosive, front-running start.
Elevation Difference and Steep Hill: Demanding “True Power”
- The course begins with a downhill slope immediately after the start, often leading to rapid early splits, with the first three furlongs (600m) sometimes clocked in the low 33-second range.
- However, the ultimate test awaits in the final stretch: a steep uphill climb with an elevation difference of 2.2m and a maximum gradient of 2.24%.
- This combination of a potentially “over-paced” early section and the gruelling uphill finish defines the course’s unique challenge. Mere speed is insufficient; horses must possess exceptional cardiorespiratory function and muscular strength to maintain high speed through the initial phase and still have enough left in the tank to conquer the demanding final hill.
Thorough Analysis of Strong Contenders: Pedigree × Training × Previous Race Performance
T O Elvis (T O Elvis)
Age/Sex: Colt, 3
Weight: 56kg
Jockey: Shun Samejima
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Stable: Ritto, Daisuke Takayanagi
Pedigree Analysis:
Sired by Volatile (known for American speed and precocity) out of a mare by Curlin (a two-time American classic winner). This pedigree combines raw speed from the sire with the stamina and power from the dam’s side, crucial for handling Nakayama’s challenging uphill finish. A “speed × power” cross perfectly suited for this course.
Training Evaluation:
S (Excellent)
On December 10 (Wednesday), clocked an exceptional “53.8 – 38.2 – 24.3 – 11.9” over the Ritto uphill track. The final furlong of 11.9 seconds is particularly noteworthy, indicating superb acceleration. A week prior, he posted powerful times on the CW course. His cardiorespiratory fitness is immaculate, showing no signs of rust despite the layoff. “Fresh but in prime condition.”
Yamanin Chelqui (Yamanin Chelqui)
Age/Sex: Colt, 3
Weight: 58kg
Jockey: Mirai Iwata
Stable: Ritto, Nakamura
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Pedigree Analysis:
Sired by Four Wheel Drive (a son of American Pharoah, showing adaptability to Japanese dirt conditions) out of a mare by Yamanin Seraphim (a Sunday Silence line, known for affinity with Japanese tracks). This hybrid Japanese-American pedigree is well-suited for the turf-to-dirt transition of the Nakayama Dirt 1200m.
Training Evaluation:
A+ (Extremely Good)
On December 10 (Wednesday), he posted an outstanding “51.8 – 38.0 – 24.5 – 12.4” over the Ritto uphill track, an exceptionally fast overall time. His condition improved significantly from the previous week, and a strong drive in training has ignited his competitive spirit. This performance suggests he has the power to handle the challenging 58kg impost. “Excellent preparation.”
Ecoro Azel (Ecoro Azel)
Age/Sex: Colt, 3
Weight: 56kg
Jockey: Daichi Danno
Stable: Ritto, Hideyuki Mori
Pedigree Analysis:
Sired by Shancelot, out of a mare by Orientate (both American Breeders’ Cup Sprint winners). This is a “sprint-specialized” pedigree, embodying the “American-bred, immediate impact sprinter” type that trainer Hideyuki Mori excels with.
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Training Evaluation:
A (Stable)
On December 11 (Thursday), recorded “52.9 – 38.0 – 24.9 – 12.6” over the Ritto uphill track. A week prior, Jockey Danno guided him to a blistering workout, completing the bulk of his preparation. His final workout was strong but effortless, indicating peak physical and mental condition. “Form maintained exceptionally.”
Gabby’s Sister (Gabby’s Sister)
Age/Sex: Filly, 4
Weight: 56kg
Jockey: Hayato Yoshida
Stable: Miho, Kazunari Mori
Pedigree Analysis:
Sired by Apollo Kingdom (known for toughness in dirt races) out of a mare by Special Week (renowned for stamina). Her pedigree points to deep staying power rather than pure speed, making her a force in grinding, stamina-sapping contests. As last year’s victor, her course suitability is unequivocally proven.
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Training Evaluation:
A (Upper Tier)
On December 10 (Wednesday), she clocked “52.7 – 38.8 – 25.5 – 12.7” over the Miho uphill track. Her powerful stride exudes the strength needed to tackle Nakayama’s steep climb without difficulty. “Powerful footwork.” Her strong workout a week prior confirms meticulous preparation for a potential title defense.
Analysis of Dark Horses and Longshots
The Capella Stakes is known for its unpredictability, with longshots often delivering surprising performances.
Candy Drive
At 6 years old, he’s showing career-best form. Recorded the fastest time on the Monbetsu uphill track. His sire, Candy Ride, passes on potent speed, which remains fully intact.
Kurojishi Jo
A son of Furioso, a dominant force in regional racing. Posted excellent times on the Ritto uphill track. He could be a major player if the race develops into a grueling battle of attrition.
Tagano Mist
Displayed a powerful late surge in his final workout. If he can secure a smooth, wide run, he possesses the potential for a breakthrough performance.
Sunrise Amour
Posted exceptional times in his workout without being pushed. With no concerns about his condition, his talent on short dirt courses is fully blossoming.
Don Amitie
Sired by Asia Express, a stallion known to produce specialists for the Nakayama Dirt 1200m. Showing better movement than in his previous race, a significant improvement is anticipated.
Full Entry List: Training & Pedigree Data
| Horse Name | Age/Sex | Sire | Dam’s Sire | Final Workout (Dec 10, 11) | Short Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecoro Azel | Colt, 3 | Shancelot | Orientate | Rit uphill 52.9-12.6 (Easy) | Form maintained |
| A Tracks | Colt, 4 | New Year’s Day | Symboli Kris S | Rit uphill 54.1-12.2 (Easy) | Brisk movement |
| Gabby’s Sister | Filly, 4 | Apollo Kingdom | Special Week | Miho uphill 52.7-12.7 (Easy) | Powerful stride |
| Culture Day | Filly, 4 | Fine Needle | Meiner Love | Rit CW 52.9-11.0 (Easy) | No decline in form |
| Candy Drive | Colt, 6 | Candy Ride | Empire Maker | Monbetsu uphill 35.0-11.8 (Strong) | Best form recently |
| Kurojishi Jo | Colt, 6 | Furioso | Special Week | Rit uphill 51.3-12.8 (Strong) | Good condition maintained |
| Sunrise Amour | Colt, 6 | Maurice | Taiki Shuttle | Rit uphill 51.7-12.3 (Easy) | Excellent physique & movement |
| Jasper Gold | Gelding, 7 | Khozan | Put It Back | Rit uphill 52.9-12.9 (Moderately Strong) | Lacking lightness |
| Star Pescaori | Filly, 5 | Sinister Minister | Genuine | Rit uphill 56.2-13.1 (Easy) | Sure-footed |
| Tagano Mist | Filly, 4 | Majestic Warrior | Empire Maker | Rit uphill 52.5-12.2 (Strong) | Powerful late surge |
| Chikappa | Colt, 4 | Real Steel | Into Mischief | Rit uphill 52.4-13.2 (Strong) | Transforms in races |
| T O Elvis | Colt, 3 | Volatile | Curlin | Rit uphill 53.8-11.9 (Strong) | Fresh but in prime condition |
| Don Amitie | Colt, 5 | Asia Express | King Halo | Rit uphill 54.9-12.1 (Strong) | Better movement than last race |
| Nitto Basil | Colt, 5 | Danon Legend | That’s the Plenty | Miho uphill 54.3-12.6 (Strong) | Good energy, but… |
| Pod Vader | Colt, 3 | Leontes | Daiwa Major | Miho uphill 53.3-12.0 (Easy) | Excellent preparation |
| Yamanin Chelqui | Colt, 3 | Four Wheel Drive | Yamanin Seraphim | Rit uphill 51.8-12.4 (Strong) | Excellent preparation |
Conclusion and Outlook: The Clash of New and Veteran Speedsters
The 2025 Capella Stakes is set to be a captivating spectacle, largely defined by whether the explosive speed of American-bred 3-year-olds like T O Elvis and Yamanin Chelqui can conquer the unique challenges of Nakayama’s dirt course. Our extensive training analysis reveals both colts have posted superior workout times, underscoring their immense potential. T O Elvis’s electrifying 11.9-second final furlong split, in particular, hints at the kind of decisive acceleration often seen in Capella Stakes winners.
However, the proven resilience of seasoned veterans like last year’s champion, Gabby’s Sister, and the revitalized Sunrise Amour ensures this will be no easy feat. The strategic pace of the race, especially from the front-runners and those breaking from the crucial Gate 1, will undoubtedly hold the key to victory. Prepare for a thrilling conclusion as generations of speedsters battle for supremacy!
© 2025 Capella Stakes Analysis Team. All rights reserved.
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