[Updated: 2026-01-23 19:44:34] Revised by AI Assistant
Analysis by AI
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This is your comprehensive prediction report for the 2nd Kyushu-bred Grand Prix, scheduled to be held at Saga Racecourse on December 7, 2025. This highly anticipated stakes race brings together an impressive field of top contenders, including last year’s runner-up Aitaka, the rising star Nirai Kanai Arrow, and Bell Bold Nine, a formidable challenger from Ohi Racecourse. This article provides an in-depth analysis of all runners, delving into their bloodlines, past performance data, and their suitability for Saga’s unique 1800m dirt course. We will meticulously break down the anticipated race development and offer expert insights for your betting strategy.
- Key Highlights of This Prediction
- Table of Contents
- Introduction: The Significance of the Kyushu-bred Festival and the Outlook for the 2nd Edition
- Track Analysis: Characteristics of Saga Racecourse Dirt 1800m and Track Bias
- Detailed Analysis of All Runners: Bloodline, Race Record, and Suitability
- 【1】Himawari Kun (Kochi・Colt 4)
- 【2】Jun Ozu (Hyogo・Colt 6)
- 【3】Bellwood Uzume (Saga・Gelding 6)
- 【4】Kiss Umai (Saga・Colt 5)
- 【5】Aitaka (Saga・Filly 4) (Top Contender)
- 【6】Rainis (Saga・Filly 3)
- 【7】Hikaru No Kimi (Kasamatsu・Colt 3)
- 【8】Bell Bold Nine (Ohi・Colt 5) (Challenger / Potential Upset)
- 【9】Eishin Chonpa (Hyogo・Colt 4)
- 【10】Kashino Lucas (Saga・Colt 4)
- 【11】Nirai Kanai Arrow (Saga・Colt 3) (Dark Horse / Rising Star)
- 【12】Ichiza Winner (Saga・Colt 6)
- Race Development Prediction and Simulation: The Turning Point
Key Highlights of This Prediction
- The “2nd Kyushu-bred Grand Prix,” a prestigious stakes race determining the champion of Kyushu-bred horses, takes place on December 7, 2025, at Saga Racecourse (Dirt 1800m).
- Aitaka, last year’s runner-up and a local favorite from Saga, seeks redemption, leveraging her proven course suitability and impressive track record.
- Bell Bold Nine, a potent challenger from the highly competitive Minami-Kanto (Ohi) region, emerges as a top contender with potentially superior ability. The difference in regional racing levels will be a key factor.
- The 3-year-old rising star, Nirai Kanai Arrow, comes into the race with an impressive winning streak, aiming for a generational upset aided by a favorable weight allowance.
Table of Contents
- Introduction: The Significance of the Kyushu-bred Festival and the Outlook for the 2nd Edition
- Track Analysis: Characteristics of Saga Racecourse Dirt 1800m and Track Bias
- Detailed Analysis of All Runners: Bloodline, Race Record, and Suitability
- Race Development Prediction and Simulation: The Turning Point of the Race
- Prediction Key Points: Summary
- Conclusion and Recommended Betting Strategy
Introduction: The Significance of the Kyushu-bred Festival and the Outlook for the 2nd Edition
On December 7, 2025, Saga Racecourse will host the highly anticipated “2nd Kyushu-bred Grand Prix,” a prestigious stakes race dedicated to determining the champion among thoroughbreds raised in Kyushu. This competition, first established in 2024, plays a crucial role in promoting horse breeding in the Kyushu region, historically a major horse-producing area in Japan, and serves as a definitive championship where Kyushu-bred horses from various regions converge.
The inaugural event saw Kochi-based invader Lupinus Tesoro claim victory, with local hero Aitaka finishing a close second. That thrilling contest, which transcended regional boundaries, remains fresh in our memories. Now in its second year, the race is set to be run under weight-for-age conditions (Dirt 1800m) for horses aged three and older.
The stellar lineup for this year’s race includes Aitaka, the local powerhouse eager for revenge after last year’s near miss; Nirai Kanai Arrow, a three-year-old sensation on an impressive winning streak; and Bell Bold Nine, a formidable entrant from the fiercely competitive Ohi Racecourse in the Minami-Kanto region. This report will provide an exhaustive analysis of all entrants, delving into their thoroughbred bloodlines, deep-diving into their past race records, assessing their suitability for the unique Saga 1800m course, and simulating race development. Our aim is to cover every essential factor required for a well-informed betting strategy for the “Kyushu-bred Grand Prix Stakes Prediction.”
Track Analysis: Characteristics of Saga Racecourse Dirt 1800m and Track Bias
Course Layout and the Unique “Patou” Sand
Saga Racecourse’s dirt track measures 1100m per lap, classifying it as a standard small-oval course among regional racecourses. However, its distinguishing features are its wide track width and the unique “Patou” sand, which is set notably deeper on the inside rail. Local jockeys are known to “keep to the outside” to avoid the energy-sapping deep sand, making it a common strategy to sacrifice some ground for the better-conditioned sand on the outer part of the track.
The 1800m race starts midway down the home stretch in front of the stands, requiring horses to complete one and a half laps. With ample distance to the first corner, extreme advantages or disadvantages based on starting gate position in the initial scramble are minimized. Nevertheless, securing a favorable position on the first lap’s home stretch significantly influences subsequent race strategy. Saga is particularly known for races often decided by “sweeping moves” from the 4th corner, demanding both the agility to make a decisive move and the stamina to maintain speed to the finish line, making it a challenging course.
Recent Track Conditions (Track Bias)
An analysis of Saga Racecourse’s track conditions from November to December 2025 reveals a consistent trend. Despite being officially listed as “good” tracks, many races have shown slower finishing times, suggesting the course demands significant power. This indicates a current condition where stamina and strength are prioritized.
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| Date | Race | Distance | Track Condition | Winning Time | Tendency |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025.11.16 | Moonlight Tokusen C2 | 1750m | Good | 1:57.2 | Average to Slightly Tough |
| 2025.11.15 | Pegasus-za Tokusen C2 | 1400m | Good | 1:30.7 | Closers also effective |
| 2025.11.02 | Mizugame-za Tokusen C2 | 1300m | Good | 1:24.5 | Front-runners advantageous |
From this data, we can infer a winning time of 1 minute 57.2 seconds over 1750m. Extrapolating this to 1800m, a finishing time of approximately 2 minutes 00 seconds to 2 minutes 01 seconds can be expected for this race. This suggests that instead of a high-speed battle favoring raw pace, the race is likely to become an attrition test, where horses must maintain their final 3 furlong speed without tiring. Therefore, in this particular race, horses with proven power and stamina, capable of handling a demanding track, should be rated higher than those relying solely on high-speed capability.
Detailed Analysis of All Runners: Bloodline, Race Record, and Suitability
【1】Himawari Kun (Kochi・Colt 4)
Bloodline & Suitability Analysis: Sired by Strong Return out of a Sakura Laurel mare, Himawari Kun blends the speed of his sire with the staying power of his dam’s sire. This balanced pedigree suggests he can exhibit both early speed and tenacity, making him well-suited for a tough, grinding race.
Race Record & Condition Analysis: Himawari Kun has gained valuable experience in high-level C1 class races in Kochi. Although he has been out of the frame in recent starts, the margins have been narrow. His battle-hardened experience from Kochi is a significant asset. With veteran jockey Shuji Akaoka in the irons, he could navigate skillfully from the innermost gate, minimizing ground loss, and demonstrate strong closing power.
【2】Jun Ozu (Hyogo・Colt 6)
Bloodline & Suitability Analysis: By Came Home out of a Brian’s Time mare, Jun Ozu’s pedigree combines the speed of his sire with the ruggedness of his dam’s sire. This combination allows him to adapt to the deep dirt and longer distances common in regional racing, making him a strong contender for a grueling race.
Race Record & Condition Analysis: This consistent performer from Hyogo (Sonoda) has a solid record of regularly finishing in the money in C2 class races. His reliability in Sonoda’s often-fierce pace scenarios speaks to his underlying strength. If he can utilize his stamina from a mid-pack position over the extended distance, he has a strong chance of contending for the top spots.
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【3】Bellwood Uzume (Saga・Gelding 6)
Bloodline & Suitability Analysis: The pedigree, by Came Home out of a Kurofune mare, typically suggests a dirt sprinter to miler type. The 1800m distance appears to be a challenging stretch for his profile.
Race Record & Condition Analysis: While he will be ridden by Saga’s top jockey, Isao Yamaguchi, his recent starts in JRA (Japan Racing Association) races have seen him largely uncompetitive in shorter distances. Though a turnaround is hoped for upon his transfer to Saga, his past performance and distance suitability suggest a cautious approach for this race.
【4】Kiss Umai (Saga・Colt 5)
Race Record & Condition Analysis: During his time in Sonoda, Kiss Umai was primarily campaigned as a sprinter in short-distance races. His debut race at Saga (November 9) over 1400m resulted in a significant defeat. Given the current 1800m distance and the caliber of the graded race field, he is expected to face a tough challenge.
【5】Aitaka (Saga・Filly 4) (Top Contender)
Bloodline & Suitability Analysis: By Eishin Flash out of a Deep Impact mare, her pedigree might suggest a turf middle-distance runner. However, her dam’s American bloodlines provide crucial power, enabling her to excel on dirt with high fundamental ability. She also shows excellent aptitude for Saga’s tight turns.
Race Record & Condition Analysis: The undisputed leading candidate for this race. Her close second-place finish in the same event last year speaks volumes about her capabilities. She has consistently contended for top honors in recent semi-stakes and A-class races, demonstrating remarkable stability. Partnered with Saga’s rising star jockey, Aito Hida, she stands as the most likely horse to avenge last year’s defeat.
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【6】Rainis (Saga・Filly 3)
Race Record & Condition Analysis: As a 3-year-old filly carrying a light weight of 52kg, she has an attractive weight allowance. However, she has struggled in C1 class races. Given her sire, Mikki Isle, produces offspring typically suited to shorter distances, the 1800m is likely to be too long. This race will probably serve as a valuable experience-builder.
【7】Hikaru No Kimi (Kasamatsu・Colt 3)
Race Record & Condition Analysis: An invader from Kasamatsu. While he secured a win in his previous start, it was in a C5 class, meaning the competition level will be significantly tougher here. His sire, Transcend, suggests dirt suitability, but he will need to show exceptional growth beyond his current form to be competitive in a stakes race.
【8】Bell Bold Nine (Ohi・Colt 5) (Challenger / Potential Upset)
Bloodline & Suitability Analysis: By Makfi out of a King Kamehameha mare, this pedigree offers an excellent balance of power and speed, contributing to high average performance. He possesses the underlying genetics to adapt well to the demanding dirt tracks of regional racing.
Race Record & Condition Analysis: The strongest contender to challenge Aitaka. His decisive victory in the C2 class at Ohi, one of regional racing’s highest levels, suggests his ability is comparable to A-class horses in other regions. The decision to secure national-level top jockey Yamato Ishikawa further indicates the stable’s serious intent. While he carries the risk of being new to the course, his raw ability could simply overpower the competition.
【9】Eishin Chonpa (Hyogo・Colt 4)
Race Record & Condition Analysis: Genetically, he is a sprinter, but his prior experience racing at Saga is a positive factor. However, his recent performances at Sonoda have been inconsistent, and an increase in distance is not in his favor. He would need a very specific race development to be competitive.
【10】Kashino Lucas (Saga・Colt 4)
Race Record & Condition Analysis: While he consistently manages to finish around the placings in Saga, he appears to lack the decisive finishing kick to win. To close the gap on the top contenders, he would need unforeseen race circumstances or a significant boost in form.
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【11】Nirai Kanai Arrow (Saga・Colt 3) (Dark Horse / Rising Star)
Bloodline & Suitability Analysis: By Ares Barows out of a Kinshasa no Kiseki mare, his pedigree is strongly inclined towards sprinting. However, his race performances have demonstrated an underlying strength beyond mere speed. He possesses the youth and momentum to potentially overcome any distance limitations.
Race Record & Condition Analysis: Currently, the horse with the most momentum, a true “rising dragon.” He has been dominating C-class races with overwhelming performances, indicating his current class is simply not challenging enough. While the competition significantly steps up here, his 54kg weight allowance is a major advantage. If he can secure an early lead and dictate the pace, he could very well ascend to the pinnacle of this race.
【12】Ichiza Winner (Saga・Colt 6)
Race Record & Condition Analysis: His recent form has been disappointing, lacking the sparkle seen previously. Starting from the widest gate also raises concerns about potential ground loss. He is expected to face a challenging race here.
Race Development Prediction and Simulation: The Turning Point
【Early Stage: Position Scramble】
After the start, Himawari Kun (1) will likely aim for a good position from the inside. From the outside, the highly-motivated Nirai Kanai Arrow (11) will challenge for the lead. Aitaka (5) will observe these movements and settle into a prime 3rd or 4th position, while Bell Bold Nine (8) will run in the front-to-middle group.
【Middle Stage: Backstretch to 3rd Corner】
The pace is expected to be relatively steady initially, but it will gradually pick up from the backstretch. This is where Bell Bold Nine (8) and jockey Yamato Ishikawa will make an early move from the outside, applying pressure to the leading group. The key will be how well Nirai Kanai Arrow (11) can resist this challenge, while Aitaka (5) conserves energy on the inside, waiting for the decisive moment.
【Final Stage: 4th Corner to Finish Line】
Approaching the 4th corner, Nirai Kanai Arrow, Aitaka, and Bell Bold Nine are expected to pull away, setting up a thrilling battle. Aitaka, with her superior course experience and sharp turns, will make her move from the inside. Bell Bold Nine will unleash his powerful stride in the straight, while Nirai Kanai Arrow, aided by his light weight and momentum, will fight tenaciously to hold his ground.
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