ジェムストーン賞2025 予想分析

[Updated: 2026-01-23 20:13:22] Revised by AI Assistant

Analysis by AI

#01 Race Overview & Course Characteristics: The Gemstone Stakes

Race Details: The Gemstone Stakes

• Race Name: Gemstone Stakes (重賞 – Graded Race)
• Target: 2-year-old Thoroughbreds
• Distance: Dirt 1200m
• Venue: Oi Racecourse (Right-handed, Outer Track)
• Key Feature: This is the premier championship for 2-year-old dirt sprinters, serving as a crucial stepping stone for future short-distance campaigns. A highly competitive field of 16 runners ensures thrilling action.
• Prize Money: 1st place prize of 13,000,000 JPY
• Entrants: The race attracts the top-tier short-distance specialists from the Southern Kanto region.

Oi Dirt 1200m Course Analysis

• The distance from the starting gate to the first turn is notably short, creating immediate pressure for position.
• While outer gates can be disadvantageous due to the tight first turn, inner gates carry the risk of being boxed in during the early scramble.
• A multitude of horses vying for the lead is anticipated, likely setting up a grueling, high-paced battle of attrition.
• The estimated winning time for this race is 1:13.1.
• The race typically favors horses that can conserve energy in the mid-to-rear division and unleash a powerful closing burst (上がり3F) in the final stretch.
• Victory on this demanding course requires not just raw speed, but exceptional stamina and sustained acceleration.

#02 Top Contenders: Quantitative Analysis of Form & Best Times

The Elite Duo: Top-Tier Talent

Saddlecloth: 12

Wannahavefun

• Best Time: 1:12.8 (Tied for fastest in the field)
• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 37.3
• Recent Form: Dominated his transfer debut with an impressive time, showcasing elite speed.

Saddlecloth: 15

Handen Drake

• Best Time: 1:12.8 (Tied for fastest in the field)
• D1200m Record: Undefeated with 2 wins from 2 starts.
• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 37.3
• Recent Form: Finished a strong 2nd in a Grade 2 mile race, demonstrating excellent stamina which will be a significant asset here.

D1200m Specialists: Proven on the Sprint Course

Saddlecloth: 13

Doki Doki

• D1200m Record: Placed in all 3 career starts.
• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 36.9 (One of the sharpest closing bursts in the field)
• Recent Form: If the early pace becomes frantic, expect a potent late surge in the straight.

Saddlecloth: 16

Nagisanoruna

• D1200m Record: Currently on a winning streak.
• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 38.6
• Recent Form: With a smooth run from the wide outside gate, this contender has the tenacity to hold on for a placing.

Rising Stars: Horses in Peak Form

Saddlecloth: 11

Miraiheno Hero

• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 37.2
• Recent Form: After transferring, he has shown significant physical improvement and enhanced early speed, leading to consecutive victories. He carries strong momentum.

Saddlecloth: 3

Black X

• Recent Form: Unbeaten since debut (2-1-0-0), yet to show his full potential.
• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 38.4
• Comment: The change from Urawa to Oi will be a key factor, but his inherent talent promises much.

Others to Watch: Potential Dark Horses

Saddlecloth: 10

Gold Kaguyahime

• D1200m Best Time: 1:14.1
• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 37.7
• Comment: If she breaks well and secures a good position, she has the closing speed to challenge in the final stages.

Saddlecloth: 4

Baby Quest

• D1200m Best Time: 1:14.2
• Last 3 Furlongs (上がり3F): 37.4
• Recent Form: Returned from a layoff with a solid win, and her recent training reports are exceptionally positive.

Pedigree Insights

• Many leading contenders are sired by prominent stallions known for their speed on American dirt, such as Morning and Mozu Ascot.
• Notably, four Morning progeny are entered, making them particularly interesting given their excellent sustained speed on the demanding Southern Kanto dirt tracks.

#03 Final Preparations: Analysis of Recent Training & Stable Comments

Condition Improving: Horses Showing Significant Progress

• Baby Quest (4): Received the highest praise with reports of “even better movement,” making her a must-watch.
• Miraiheno Hero (11): Demonstrating clear improvement in condition.
• Wannahavefun (12): Evaluated as “keener after a single prep race,” suggesting significant enhancement from his previous start.
• Handen Drake (15): Recorded an excellent time effortlessly on the uphill track, indicating flawless preparation.
• Presto Emperor (14): Showing notable improvement in his overall condition.

Stable Insights & Final Workouts

• Baby Quest (4): Trainer Tanaka Masashi is confident, stating “Looking forward to her performance in a graded race.”
  Final Workout: 3F in 36.8 seconds, ridden effortlessly (馬なり).
• Wannahavefun (12): Trainer Arayama maintains a cautious stance regarding the heightened competition.
• Nagisanoruna (16): Trainer Asakura is also reserved about the increased level of opposition.
• Doki Doki (13): Trainer Takahashi Kiyoshi notes, “Condition is improving after the previous race.”
• Handen Drake (15):Final Workout: 1F in 11.2 seconds on the uphill track.
• Horses that clock fast times with minimal effort (馬なり) in their final workouts are highly regarded, as it suggests they have ample reserve energy for the race.

#04 Race Development Forecast: The High-Paced Battle of Attrition

Pace Setters & Front Runners: With powerful front-runners such as Crimson Prince (2), Wannahavefun (12), and Nagisanoruna (16) all set to contest the lead, the battle for supremacy from the gate will be fierce.

Pace Prediction: We anticipate a scorching early pace, with the first 3 furlongs likely run in the high 34 to low 35-second range.

Key Factors in Race Dynamics

• In a crowded field over Oi’s 1200m, an outer gate isn’t necessarily a disadvantage. It can allow a horse to avoid the inside scrum and position themselves smoothly in a favorable spot.
• If Wannahavefun (12) and Nagisanoruna (16) manage to secure forward positions cleanly from their outside gates, they could dictate the race tempo.
• Presto Emperor (14), benefiting from an outside draw that reduces the risk of being boxed in, also stands to gain from this strategic advantage.

Opportunities for Closers & Stalkers

• Should the race unfold into a high-paced, grueling contest, horses that conserved energy in the middle or rear of the field will find a golden opportunity to unleash their finishing power.
• Handen Drake (15), with his experience closing from behind in a graded mile race, is perfectly poised to capitalize on his stamina in such a scenario.
• Doki Doki (13), renowned for his devastating turn of foot in the final 3 furlongs, possesses the raw ability to sweep past rivals in the straight.

#05 Conclusion & Final Prediction Highlights

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Our Top Pick: The Unbeatable Favorite

Handen Drake (15)

• Proven second-place finish in a top-level Southern Kanto mile graded race.
• The shortening of distance to his preferred 1200m is ideal.
• His final workout was exceptional, indicating peak condition.

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Strong Challenger

Wannahavefun (12)

Holds the joint-fastest time in the field. Anticipate significant improvement on his second start after a layoff.

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Dark Horse Contender

Doki Doki (13)

His formidable closing speed will be unleashed by a predicted high-paced race scenario.

Exotic Bets & Longshot Potentials

Recommended for Trifecta/Quiniella:

• Miraiheno Hero (11)
  (Showing remarkable and consistent improvement.)

Potential Longshots:

• Baby Quest (4)
  (Coming in with absolutely stellar training reports.)
• Presto Emperor (14)
  (Benefits greatly from an advantageous outside draw.)

The “Outside Shot” Perspective:

• Fuku Ambition (9)
  (A Morning progeny; could surprise with a late run if the pace sets up perfectly.)

Final Selections & Betting Recommendations

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