Key Points:
- Ohi 03R: (8) Bright Terra – Top AI-predicted place rate, balancing reliability and value.
- Ohi 04R: (10) Longing Star – Expected “improvement,” likely unpopular due to previous poor performance.
- Ohi 06R: (8) Baby Quest – Highly reliable, exceptional training performance for a 2-year-old.
- Ohi 10R: (4) Mikuni Sunbeam – Significant class advantage entering B3 class after S1 graded stakes 3rd place.
- Ohi 11R: (3) Two Shadow – Advantage in fillies-only event after 2nd place in mixed-sex graded stakes race.
Ohi 03R: 2-year-old Thoroughbred (Dirt 1400m・15:35 Start)
(8) Bright Terra (Colt 2, Ryo Fujita)
Recommended as the key horse due to overwhelming place rate and balance with estimated odds.
Evaluation Data:
- User Data: Win Rate 24%, Place Rate 63%, Estimated Odds 340%
- AI Prediction: Win Rate 26.0% (1st), Place Rate 66.6% (1st)
- AI Overall Ranking: 2nd
Race Key Point Analysis:
General publication: “Main Contenders Equal.” AI shows (8) Bright Terra highest predicted rates. (9) Justice ranks 1st in AI Overall Ranking for odds value. Bright Terra for ability, Justice for expectation value.
Condition Analysis (Training):
Final workout on Nov 8th (Good) showed good movement, finishing alongside veteran Shonan Tahati with an easy feel. Described as “showing gradual improvement.”
Stable’s Perspective:
Trainer Sakai expects further progress, noting improved atmosphere after debut race (Oct 21st, Ohi 1400m, 6th place).
Pedigree Consideration:
Sire Majestic Warrior provides American-style speed and power, high aptitude for Ohi’s dirt course.
Summary:
High reliability (66.6% place rate) combined with estimated odds of 340% makes Bright Terra a valuable “bargain horse.”
Ohi 04R: 2-year-old Thoroughbred (Dirt 1200m・16:07 Start)
(10) Longing Star (Colt 2, Kan Taniuchi)
Targeted as a “bargain horse” due to likely unpopularity and AI’s top rankings, with estimated odds of 313%.
Evaluation Data:
- User Data: Win Rate 21%, Place Rate 67%, Estimated Odds 313%
- AI Prediction: Win Rate 26.7% (1st), Place Rate 57.7% (1st)
- AI Overall Ranking: 1st
Race Key Point Analysis:
General publication: “Potentially Upset.” AI shows (10) Longing Star a “triple crown” in predictions. Contrasts with ordinary 4th place debut. AI quantifies significant “improvement” in training.
Condition Analysis (Training):
Training evaluation: “↗” (Improvement). Workout on Nov 8th (Good) showed nimbleness.
Stable’s Perspective:
Trainer Matoba expects a change in form, stating the horse has improved after its debut.
Pedigree Consideration:
Freshman sire Roger Barows and dam sire Henny Hughes, strong dirt sprint record. Distance reduction from 1400m to 1200m is positive.
Summary:
Despite a poor previous race, AI’s top rankings and clear indications of improvement from training and stable comments suggest a strong possibility for a surprise outcome.
Ohi 06R: 2-year-old Thoroughbred (Dirt 1200m・17:12 Start)
(8) Baby Quest (Colt 2, Shige Honda)
Recommended as today’s most reliable key selection with an AI-supported estimated 36% win rate.
Evaluation Data:
- User Data: Win Rate 36%, Place Rate 64%, Estimated Odds 170%
- AI Prediction: (Out of Data Provision Range)
Race Key Point Analysis:
General publication: “Main Contenders Equal.” AI shows (8) Baby Quest highest estimated win rate (36%). AI evaluation of overwhelming training content overrides layoff concerns.
Condition Analysis (Training):
Exceptional training performance. Final workout on Nov 8th (Good) was “driven hard.” Finished 1.2 seconds ahead of another 2-year-old over 800m, demonstrating exceptional movement.
Stable’s Perspective:
Trainer Masashi Tanaka is confident, stating the horse can perform well after layoff and expects immediate success.
Pedigree Consideration:
Sire Firenze Fire and dam sire South Vigorous combine US and Japanese dirt sprint speed, making 1200m optimal.
Summary:
Overwhelming training performance supports AI’s 36% win rate and stable’s confidence, making this an “undisputed favorite.”
Ohi 10R: Shiomizaka Sho (Dirt 1800m・19:30 Start)
(4) Mikuni Sunbeam (Colt 3, Takashi Yano)
Undisputed key selection due to impeccable reliability (71% place rate) and advantage in B3 class after S1 graded stakes 3rd place.
Evaluation Data:
- User Data: Win Rate 32%, Place Rate 71%, Estimated Odds 242%
- AI Prediction: (Out of Data Provision Range)
Race Key Point Analysis:
Selected race for B3 class. General publication: “Unwavering Favorite.” AI predicts 71% place rate, indicating absolute reliability for B3 class. High evaluation due to “difference in class” despite layoff.
Condition Analysis (Training):
“Off-track stable training” shows no condition concerns. Final adjustment on Nov 8th recorded sharp lap times. Workout partner was Sharf Jin (A2 class horse), with Mikuni Sunbeam keeping pace, demonstrating A-class ability.
Stable’s Perspective:
Trainer Fujita confirms smooth condition and capability, stating the horse has been worked as planned.
Pedigree Consideration:
N/A in provided text, focusing on class and training.
Summary:
Training content matching an A2 class horse dispels layoff concerns. Advantage of an S1 graded stakes 3rd place finisher in a B3 class race is immense. With 71% place rate and 242% odds, it’s a prime “bargain horse.”
Ohi 11R: Rose Vale Sho (Dirt 1600m・20:10 Start)
(3) Two Shadow (Mare 6, Yu Yamanaka)
Most reliable key horse in a predicted “close finish,” with AI’s 63% place rate.
Evaluation Data:
- User Data: Win Rate 20%, Place Rate 63%, Estimated Odds 270%
- AI Prediction: Estimated Win Rate 20%, Estimated Place Rate 63%
Race Key Point Analysis:
Fillies-only Open race. General publication: “Close Finish.” AI supports this, with (3) Two Shadow having high place rate. “No guarantee to win, but extremely high reliability for a top 3 finish” based on experienced race class.
Condition Analysis (Training):
Perfect condition. Nov 8th at Urawa Training Center showed “smooth progress without change.” Main workout “driven hard” on Urawa’s main course (Yielding) with splits of 68.0-53.0-39.2-12.7.
Stable’s Perspective / Course Suitability:
Trainer Ozawa notes competing against colts provided stimulation, evident in tenacity. Horse has a win at Ohi 1600m, indicating suitability for track and distance.
Pedigree Consideration:
N/A in provided text, focusing on class and training.
Summary:
2nd place finish in a mixed-sex graded stakes race is top-tier. On preferred Ohi 1600m and against only fillies, expected to perform well. 63% place rate and 270% odds make it the most reliable “bargain horse.”
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