Urawa Horse Racing Comprehensive Analysis Report

November 27, 2025

Publication Date: November 26, 2025

Overview

This report analyzes six horses—Black Honey, Fairion Ice, Fire Whip, King Perle, Porepore, and Rizin—for races at Urawa Racecourse on November 27, 2025. The analysis utilizes AI prediction models and expert insights, focusing on bloodline, training, stable comments, and statistical figures to determine investment value and theoretical win values. The report targets specialized investors and researchers, providing evidence-based arguments to reduce uncertainty in horse racing.

Key Points:

• Absolute Banker: Race 12 Rizin, due to minimal weaknesses and strong preparation.
• High Value: Race 2 Fairion Ice and Race 1 Black Honey, offering returns beyond their odds due to high statistical figures and quality training.
• High Risk, High Return: Race 5 Fire Whip and Race 6 King Perle, possessing potential for significant performance improvements, suitable for win or exacta bets.
• Sleeper for Connoisseurs: Race 8 Porepore, often underestimated but data indicates high suitability, ideal for place or trifecta combinations.

Introduction: Data-Driven Decision Making in Minami Kanto Horse Racing

Report Objectives and Analytical Framework

The report aims to recommend six specific horses based on AI predictions and on-site information. It emphasizes multilayered analysis of bloodline, training, stable comments, and statistics to manage risk. The focus is on verifying unique data and identifying the source of “value” in horses.

Urawa Racecourse and Track Conditions

Urawa Racecourse is compact with a short homestretch, favoring front-runners. Races analyzed range from 1400m to 2000m. The report notes the importance of considering performance under “Good” and “Slightly Heavy” track conditions present in the training data.

Chapter 1: Awakening of a Young Horse and Bloodline Determinism

Urawa Race 1: #8 Black Honey

Target Race: Urawa 01R (2-year-old Thoroughbred, Dirt 1400m)

Recommended Horse: #8 Black Honey (Colt 2 / Jockey Sho Honjo / Noguchi Hiroshi Stable)

Analysis: Based on AI-calculated “place rate of 51%” and “projected odds of 3.2x,” along with observed training improvements.

Bloodline Analysis: Sire Gold Dream progeny are known for strong muscle mass and power on dirt. Dam’s sire Cherokee Run provides speed and early finish. This “power × speed” combination is ideal for Urawa’s 1400m.

Detailed Training Data Analysis:

• Mid-term training: High-pressure inside partnered workout, indicating mental growth.
• November 22 (Sat) final gallop: Intensified workout (56.3 – 41.9 for 3F-1F) with “driven to finish” urging, indicating the stable aims for a win.

Decoding Stable Comments: Trainer Hiroshi Noguchi stated, “In the last race, it was able to make a late surge, and the content was not bad. I don’t think there’s much difference here either,” suggesting confidence in its ability to contend.

Conclusion: Evaluation of Investment Value: AI win rate of 18% and place rate of 51% suggest consistent in-the-money finishes. Projected win odds of 3.2x offer considerable betting value, making it a suitable core horse.

Chapter 2: Resilience in Adversity and Statistical Superiority

Urawa Race 2: #12 Fairion Ice

Target Race: Urawa 02R Lunchtime Challenge (Dirt 1400m)

Recommended Horse: #12 Fairion Ice (Filly 3 / Jockey Ryo Nohata / Ito Shigeru Stable)

Analysis: AI prediction model shows a “win rate of 34%” and “place rate of 74%,” making it a statistical favorite. The analysis addresses its previous withdrawal from a race due to a ballot.

Analysis of Pre-Race Process: Ballot exclusion last week is deemed not to have impacted condition. Trainer Shigeru Ito commented, “Last week’s Kawasaki race was a ballot exclusion, but there’s been no impact, and she’s maintaining good condition. I have high expectations for her in this field,” indicating mental stability and a favorable assessment of the current competition. The rescheduled entry is seen as an opportunity for a more winnable race.

Detailed Training Data Analysis (Funabashi Outer Course):

• ■ Training: 51.0 – 37.4 for 3F-1F, “Strongly,” “Fairly well conditioned.”
• ◇ Training: 50.6 – 38.2 for 3F-1F, “Eased up,” “Lively run.”

The “Lightened workout” suggests the horse was already in condition. “Lively run” and good times while eased up indicate excellent condition.

Conclusion: Favorite That Turned an Accident into an Advantage: The withdrawal is seen as an advantage, securing adjustment time and a softer field. Training, stable comments, and AI predictions align, making it an unshakable core horse for this race.

Chapter 3: Process of Rejuvenation and Advantage from Head-to-Head Comparison

Urawa Race 5: #5 Fire Whip

Target Race: Urawa 05R (3-year-old and Up Thoroughbred, Dirt 1400m)

Recommended Horse: #5 Fire Whip (Colt 4 / Jockey Sho Honjo / Noguchi Hiroshi Stable)

Analysis: AI predicts a 19% win rate and projected odds of 3.5x. The analysis focuses on training data revealing potential beyond market expectations.

Detailed Training Data Analysis:

• Nov 21 (Fri) final gallop: 69.9 – 36.8 for 5F-1F, “Strongly.” Partnered with Peptide Hudson (B1 horse). Fire Whip “passed on the outside by 0.3 sec” with a strong response, indicating superior ability in the C1 class. The comment “Despite slightly heavy body weight, moved well” suggests a “power-up.”

Decoding Stable Comments: Trainer Hiroshi Noguchi stated, “We’ve been adjusting him while reconditioning, and he’s gotten better compared to when he arrived. I wish he’d fill out a bit more.” This confirms a recovery trend and suggests functional concerns are dispelled, with the trainer wishing for more physical development.

Conclusion: Ability Level of a Higher-Grade Challenger: Outperforming a higher-grade B1 horse in training is a significant advantage in the C1 class. It’s considered an “undervalued horse” with more ability than odds suggest. Monitoring body weight on race day is advised.

Chapter 4: Unlocking Potential Through Tactical Shift

Urawa Race 6: #7 King Perle

Target Race: Urawa 06R Shinfu Special (Dirt 1500m)

Recommended Horse: #7 King Perle (Colt 2 / Jockey Aoi Shinoya / Inamasu Takahiro Stable)

Analysis: The horse is undergoing a “model change” after its previous defeat, with potential for sudden ability improvement if the tactical shift succeeds.

Decoding Stable Comments: Trainer Inamasu outlined the plan: “He was too eager to go in the last race. We want to put a horse in front of him, let him take some dirt, and teach him to settle.” This addresses immaturity in temperament and aims to teach patience.

Detailed Training Data Analysis:

• Recent training (Funabashi Outer, Good): 67.8 – 51.0 – 37.6 for 6F-3F, “Strongly,” “No decline in condition.”
• Mid-term training (Funabashi Outer, Bad): 63.9 – 48.6 – 36.2 for 6F-3F, “Driven to finish,” “No lingering effects from interruption.”

The “Lightened workout” considers temperament. The 63.9 seconds for 6F on a bad track shows clear absolute ability for a 2-year-old.

Conclusion: High-Risk, High-Return Strategic Investment: Bloodline (sire Le Vent Se Leve, dam’s sire Symboli Kris S) suggests resilience. If the educational race succeeds, explosive late surge is possible. AI projected win rate of 22% and odds of 3.2x are high. Due to uncertainty, combination bets (place or wide bets) are recommended.

Chapter 5: Silent Contender and Suitability Revealed by Data

Urawa Race 8: #9 Porepore

Target Race: Urawa 08R Sagittarius Special (Dirt 1400m)

Recommended Horse: #9 Porepore (Filly 3 / Apprentice Haruka Nakayama / Sakai Hajime Stable)

Analysis: No stable comments were available, but objective data reveals her as a “hidden contender.”

Race Performance Analysis: Consistent performance across track conditions.

• Oct 27, 2025 (Urawa, Heavy, 1500m): 3rd, 1.6 sec diff, 10th Favorite. Strong adaptability to softer conditions.
• Oct 15, 2025 (Kawasaki, Slightly Heavy, 1400m): 5th, 0.8 sec diff, 8th Favorite.
• Sep 24, 2025 (Urawa, Good, 1400m): 8th, 2.4 sec diff, 3rd Favorite.
• Aug 20, 2025 (Urawa, Good, 1300m): 2nd, 0.1 sec diff, 4th Favorite.

The 1400m is considered her best condition.

Weight Allowance Benefit: Apprentice jockey Haruka Nakayama provides a weight allowance, potentially offering a physical advantage in the final stretch.

Conclusion: Dark Horse Targeting Information Vacuum: AI predicts a win rate of 13% and a place rate of 50%, with projected odds of 4.5x, indicating high value. Lack of comments and lower popularity enhance payout value. Her track record, course suitability, and weight allowance make her a strong candidate for trifecta or wide bets.

Chapter 6: Return of the King and Flawless Preparation

Urawa Race 12: #3 Rizin

Target Race: Urawa 12R Tochigi Prefectural Livestock Association Chairman’s Award Special (Dirt 2000m)

Recommended Horse: #3 Rizin (Colt 6 / Jockey Shigeo Honda / Mizuno Takashi Stable)

Analysis: A transfer from JRA with a strong track record and training content, setting him apart.

Background and Ability Comparison: Consistent results in JRA’s 2-win class indicate capability for A-class local races. Entry into this B2/B3 mixed-class race is a favorable “class drop.”

Decoding Stable Comments: Trainer Mizuno stated, “He’s been ridden smoothly since entering the stable. He was originally one of our horses, so there’s no concern about the course. I have high expectations for a good performance.” The fact that Rizin was previously with Mizuno Stable is a significant advantage, ensuring environmental adaptation.

Detailed Training Data Analysis:

• JRA tenure (Ritto Hill Course, Good): 53.0 – 12.5 for 4F-1F, “Strongly,” “Extended well when urged.”
• JRA tenure (Ritto Woodchip C, Good): 80.6 – 12.2 for 6F-1F, “Eased up,” “Improvement after reconditioning.”
• Nov 22 (Sat) Urawa Training Ctr: 70.8 – 54.8 – 39.5 for 5F-3F, “Slightly Strongly,” “Worked over a long distance.”

JRA times exceed local standards, and recent Urawa training confirms stamina for the 2000m distance.

Conclusion: AAA-Rated Surebet Cornerstone: AI predicted win rate of 28% and place rate of 59% are outstanding. With JRA track record, course suitability, environmental adaptation, and flawless training, Rizin is considered the most reliable horse for betting strategies.

Overall Conclusion and Investment Strategy

The Urawa Horse Racing on November 27, 2025, presents a day of intertwined factors from young horse potential to experienced horse ability. The six analyzed horses each offer distinct strengths and buying opportunities. The report aims to guide Urawa Racecourse strategies by illuminating the future through data analysis.