A final analysis of defending champion Exalt and the improving Satono Tempest.
November 10, 2025 / Updated: November 10, 2025
Presenting our predictions for the Topaz Stakes, a 1400m dirt race at Ohi Racecourse on November 11, 2025. While experts see a three-way battle, our latest AI forecast points to a clear two-horse race. This article cross-references AI data, expert opinions, and on-site information to identify reliable contenders and risky favorites.
Key Takeaways
- AI predicts a ‘two-horse race’ between Fuji Eugene and Exalt, differing from the experts’ ‘three-way battle’ view.
- The top contender is #11 Fuji Eugene, ranked #1 by AI, with all data points—potential, training, and stable comments—showing positive trends.
- #10 Exalt, ranked #2 by AI, has a strong track record but recent training and stable comments raise concerns, making him a pivotal choice.
- Offering better value than their AI rankings suggest are #3 Satono Tempest, praised for his last race, and #13 Consigliere, a strong performer after a layoff.
The Power Balance According to Data: AI’s Top 6 Overall Scores
As a foundation for our predictions, let’s examine the objective hierarchy based on the AI’s “Overall Score” (a composite of prediction accuracy and expected return value). The key takeaway here is the clear separation identified by the AI. #1 Fuji Eugene (Overall 233) and #2 Exalt (Overall 224) stand out, with a significant gap to #3 Mozu Ricky (Overall 206). This suggests the AI sees a “two-horse race,” contrasting with the experts’ “three-way battle” theory. The crucial question for bettors is whether this AI-driven “two-horse race” aligns with expert opinions and recent form, or if there’s a divergence.
| Rank (AI Overall) | No. | Horse Name | AI Overall Score | AI Win/Place Prediction Rate | AI Expected Return (Win Bet) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 11 | Fuji Eugene | 233 | 32.8% | 134 |
| 2nd | 10 | Exalt | 224 | 36.5% | 135 |
| 3rd | 6 | Mozu Ricky | 206 | 19.5% | 120 |
| 4th | 8 | Sea Serpent | 199 | 13.1% | 119 |
| 5th | 13 | Consigliere | 167 | 61.8% | 82 |
| 6th | 14 | Karlsbad | 166 | 4.0% | 90 |
Source: AI Prediction Data
[Most Important] In-Depth Analysis of Top Contenders
We will now cross-reference the top-ranked AI horses with expert analysis to assess their reliability.
AI’s Top Pick (#1): #11 Fuji Eugene (Colt, 4 / Kai Sugiyama ▲53kg)
The most reliable contender, with all data points showing an upward trend. Fuji Eugene is the AI’s clear top choice with an Overall Score of 233. His Expected Return of 134 is particularly noteworthy, indicating the AI sees a strong balance between his ability and his odds. This quantitative assessment is strongly supported by qualitative data. Experts highlight his dominant record of “7 wins in regional age-restricted stakes races” and believe “his talent is on par with this field.” His biggest asset is his improving condition. After his first race since transferring (11th in the Mile Grand Prix on 10/22), reports state his “condition is naturally improving,” a sentiment echoed by trainer Okano: “He’s been doing great since that first run.” Furthermore, his final workout on Nov. 7 was a “fast time on the outside,” signaling peak fitness. The four key data points—AI’s quantitative rating, expert talent assessment, stable’s confidence, and recent workout times—are all perfectly aligned in a positive, upward direction. With a light weight of 53kg, the stage is set for his talent to blossom, making him the prime candidate for the top spot.
AI Rank #2: #10 Exalt (Horse, 6 / Ryo Nobata 57kg)
The biggest question mark. A difficult horse to assess, with a direct conflict between “past performance” and “current condition.” Exalt, ranked #2 by the AI (Overall 224), is the focal point of this race. His achievements are undeniable: he is “last year’s winner of this race,” proving his suitability for the course. He also had a “dominant 7-length victory in this year’s Fujino Wave Memorial in March,” confirming that the Ohi 1400m is his “best stage.” Based on this record, experts give him the highest praise, expecting a “complete turnaround.” However, this is where the biggest contradiction lies. Recent on-site information raises clear concerns. His workout on Nov. 6 was critically described as “unresponsive when pushed.” Furthermore, trainer Arayama offered a cautious comment, stating, “We’ve run him once, but he hasn’t improved as much as I’d hoped,” directly opposing the expert’s view. This is a classic clash between “historical performance data” and “current on-site information.” Despite being the defending champion, the stable’s subdued tone suggests that even as the AI’s #2 pick, he could be a “risky favorite.”
Expert’s Focus: #3 Satono Tempest (Horse, 7 / Tsubasa Sasagawa 54kg)
An improving horse with quality that surpasses his AI rank (#7). Satono Tempest’s AI Overall Score is a modest 152, placing him 7th. However, qualitative data directly challenges this AI rating. Experts point to the “quality of his last race,” which the AI may have overlooked. He finished 2nd in the Evening Sho (10/10) at the A2 level, but analysts note, “considering the winner was Recall Gaa (3rd in last month’s Mile Grand Prix), there’s no need to downgrade his performance.” They also state, “based on his dominant win in his first race after transferring, his ability is top-tier even in this open class,” and explicitly recommend him as a “key horse in his second race back.” This confident view aligns with trainer Mashima’s hopeful comment: “He should improve after his first run back from a layoff. I want to see him run even better.” His Nov. 6 workout was also praised as “improving after one race,” objectively confirming his better condition. The AI may have ranked him 7th based solely on the “A2 class, 2nd place” result, but experts rate the quality of the horse he lost to very highly. While Exalt is a case of “record > condition,” Satono Tempest presents a “condition > AI score” scenario, making him a horse to watch closely despite his #7 AI rank.
The ‘Fresh Specialist’: #13 Consigliere (Horse, 6 / Norifumi Mikamoto 56kg)
A dark horse whose AI rank (#5) belies his strength after a layoff. Consigliere is ranked 5th by the AI (Overall 167). While the AI rates his consistency with a 61.8% win/place rate (2nd highest in the field), his overall score is held back, likely due to the nearly four-month gap since his last race. However, experts point out that this “layoff” is precisely when he’s at his best. He is a “‘fresh specialist’ with 3 wins off layoffs” and is recommended as a “horse to watch from the start.” In his last race (July Stakes on 7/3), he finished 2nd, just 0.2 seconds behind Satono Tempest (1st), and that was “an excellent performance considering his slow start,” indicating no difference in ability. This “fresh specialist” trait is backed by trainer Morishita’s comments: “He’s in good shape after the break” and “I have high expectations.” The phrase “good shape” combined with his “fresh specialist” characteristic strongly suggests he has the potential to outperform his #5 AI ranking.
Other Horses Recommended by AI
Here is a brief evaluation of other horses in the AI’s top 6.
#6 Mozu Ricky (Horse, 6 / Nao Machida 56kg)
AI Overall Rank #3 (206). Experts also rate his distance suitability, noting “1400 meters is his specialty, with 4 wins at this distance in the JRA.” His “third race of the campaign” and “consecutive trips to Ohi” are considered “intriguing” factors. Trainer Handa commented, “I have a good feeling about his condition,” making his #3 AI rank seem justified.
#8 Sea Serpent (Horse, 5 / Tadashi Konno 56kg)
AI Overall Rank #4 (199). Also returning from a layoff (last race 9/3), but trainer Kokubo states, “He’s had a break, but his preparation is better than for his last race.” His workout on Nov. 5 was rated as “good response,” indicating he is ready. With a “3rd place finish in a Hokkaido graded stakes race” on his record, he cannot be overlooked.
Topaz Stakes Prediction: Key Points & Summary
The key to this race boils down to the “reliability of the AI’s ‘two-horse race'” and, specifically, “what to do with #10 Exalt.”
- Reliable Anchor: #11 Fuji Eugene. Ranked #1 by the AI, with all data points—talent, training, and stable comments—positively aligned.
- The Wild Card: #10 Exalt. Ranked #2 by the AI and praised by experts for a potential “turnaround,” yet his “training” and “stable comments” present clear red flags. Whether you trust his record or worry about his current form will fundamentally change your betting strategy.
- Value Beyond AI: #3 Satono Tempest and #13 Consigliere. Both horses are rated significantly higher by experts and stables than by their AI ranks (#7 and #5). Considering the “quality” and “traits” the AI may have missed, these two have a real chance to upset the AI’s top two.
Final Conclusion and Recommended Bets
In this article, we’ve analyzed the key points for the Topaz Stakes based on AI data and the latest information from experts and stables. Do you trust the AI’s top pick, Fuji Eugene? Or do you believe in the comeback of the proven champion, Exalt? Perhaps you’ll build your ticket around the improving Satono Tempest or the fresh specialist Consigliere. Which horse should you anchor, and how should you bet? Our final conclusion and recommended bets are available at the link below.▼ See the Final Conclusion Here ▼
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