November 15, 2025 • Tokyo RacecourseUnderstanding the Analysis
This selection prioritizes “dynamic data” (training performance, stable comments) over past results to identify horses with current peak form and potential value.
Key Concepts:
- Professional Main Odds Index: Confidence in a horse being the primary contender.
- Professional Secondary Odds Index: Confidence in a horse as a strong secondary contender.
- Value for Money: Highlights potential value bets where professional assessment exceeds current odds. A higher percentage means greater value.
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Tokyo 3R 2yo Unraced
Meinel Tremors
Expected Popularity: 1st
155% Value
Training: Marked 67.7 seconds on the Miho Woodchip course on November 12th, finishing 0.1 seconds ahead of its companion while under no pressure (“馬なり余力”). Rated “active movement” (動き活発) with an A evaluation.
Stable Comment: Trainer Tezuka commented, “If it moves as it did in training.” This indicates confidence that the horse will perform as well as it trained.
Key Points: High reliability (60% index), training performance supports the high index, stable’s comment suggests confidence, good value at 155% despite being the favorite. Recommended as a reliable anchor for morning races.
60%
Main Odds Index
76
Secondary Index
Tokyo 4R 2yo Unraced
Guard of Honour
Expected Popularity: 3rd
256% Value
Training: Final training on November 12th received a “showing good condition” (好気配示す) comment with an upward arrow (↗) indicating a rapid improvement in form.
Stable Comment: Trainer Hayashi stated, “Its forward momentum has increased, and it feels better than ever.”
Key Points: High professional rating (52%) but moderate popularity, significant value (256%), consistent positive on-site evaluation (training comment and stable comment). A must-bet horse due to the strong evidence and odds discrepancy.
52%
Main Odds Index
64
Secondary Index
Tokyo 5R 2yo Newcomer
Coreo Sequence
Expected Popularity: 2nd
159% Value
Training: Final training on November 12th showed “above-average movement” (水準以上の動き). The horse easily finished 0.1 seconds ahead of its companion while under no pressure (“馬なり余力”), while the companion was pushed hard (“一杯に追う”). This indicates high potential.
Stable Comment: Consistent with training, the comment was “standard” (水準), suggesting a solid preparation.
Key Points: Very high professional index (43%) for a newcomer, excellent training performance (outperforming a pushed companion while relaxed), consistent positive evaluation, reasonable value (159%) for a favorite. A solid choice for a newcomer race anchor.
43%
Main Odds Index
57
Secondary Index
Tokyo 6R 2yo Newcomer
Master Soara
Expected Popularity: 4th
151% Value
Training: The horse was “delayed” (遅れる) in training but was not pushed. This is interpreted as an educational training method to leverage its “forward-thinking temperament” (気性前向き).
Stable Comment: Trainer Tezuka highlighted the horse’s “forward-thinking temperament” as its strength, crucial for a newcomer race.
Key Points: Low professional index but moderate popularity, the key factor is the “forward-thinking temperament” emphasized by the trainer, the training “delay” is not a negative sign, offers value (151%) as an outsider candidate based on temperament.
10%
Main Odds Index
47
Secondary Index
Tokyo 7R 3yo+ 1yo Class
Erica Mayuri
Expected Popularity: 1st
199% Value
AI Analysis: Overall rating “A”, predicted win rate 30.6% (both top ratings).
Training: Final training on November 12th received a “sharpness sufficient” (鋭さ十分) comment with an upward arrow (↗) indicating rapid improvement.
Stable Comment: Trainer Hori expressed confidence, stating, “Will be effective immediately upon promotion.”
Key Points: All information sources (professional index, training, stable comment, AI) align on a strong performance. Despite being the favorite, the 199% value indicates it’s a “must-bet” horse. Considered a solid anchor for the day.
50%
Main Odds Index
70
Secondary Index
Tokyo 8R Akiharu Jump Stakes
All the World
Expected Popularity: 2nd
211% Value
AI Analysis: Rated “B”, indicating stability.
Training: Jockey Kazuma Mori personally rode in the final training, rating it as “reasonably well-prepared” (まずまず仕上がる). This indicates a deliberate preparation without excessive exertion for a veteran horse.
Stable Comment: Assistant Trainer Shibata (Nakate Stable) stated, “It has been able to refresh,” and “Even at 8 years old, the horse is young.” This suggests the horse is in good condition.
Key Points: High professional support (50%), stable emphasizes freshness and youthfulness despite age, preparation is as intended, 211% value makes it a top contender for an upset.
50%
Main Odds Index
66
Secondary Index
Tokyo 9R Miura Special
Sanono Wonder
Expected Popularity: 1st
261% Value
AI Analysis: Confirms the high rating with an overall “A” and a predicted win rate of 32.5%.
Training: Final training on November 12th received the highest evaluation of “active movement” (動き活発) with an upward arrow (↗).
Stable Comment: Trainer Toru Kurita confidently stated, “Decisive power is outstanding” (決め手断然で).
Key Points: All factors align: highest professional index (70%), top AI ratings, excellent training, and a strong stable comment. The 261% value indicates the odds are higher than its strong assessment suggests. This horse is considered the absolute center of attention.
70%
Main Odds Index
74
Secondary Index
Tokyo 10R Okutama Stakes
Meinel Ticket
Expected Popularity: 1st
154% Value
Training: Received a “lively movement” (動きキビキビ) comment with an upward arrow (↗), indicating improvement.
Stable Comment: Trainer Miya explicitly mentioned “equipment adjustments” (馬具工夫) for this race, indicating a specific strategy to address issues and improve performance.
Key Points: Training shows improvement, specific stable strategy (equipment adjustments) suggests a focused effort, high secondary index (76%) and good value (154%) make it a reliable anchor for betting tickets.
38%
Main Odds Index
76
Secondary Index
Tokyo 11R Musashino Stakes
Peptide Nile
Expected Popularity: 5th
198% Value
Training: Final training received an “ambitious training content” (意欲的な攻め内容) comment with an upward arrow (↗). The horse has had ample training in the interim, suggesting the stable intentionally applied strong workloads for this race.
Stable Comment: The stable expressed confidence, stating “no decline” (衰えなし).
Key Points: Low main index but high on-site evaluation and excellent condition. The “ambitious training” and “second run after layoff” timing are key. The 198% value suggests it has the potential to cause an upset in this GⅢ race. Also strongly recommended by an external expert.
8%
Main Odds Index
51
Secondary Index
Tokyo 12R 3yo+ 2yo Class
Effortless
Expected Popularity: 10th
325% Value
Training: Final training on November 12th received a positive comment: “good physique catches the eye” (好馬体目につく), indicating good physical condition.
Stable Comment: Trainer Kato commented, “after a poor performance upon promotion,” which explains the low popularity.
Key Points: Highest value (325%) of the day. Despite low popularity due to a previous poor run, the training indicates good physical condition. This represents a classic “long shot” scenario where popularity and condition are misaligned, making it a prime betting target.
4%
Main Odds Index
46
Secondary Index
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