Tokyo Racecourse: Top 10 Picks (Nov 1, 2025)

Is 86% Favorite Mornike Unbeatable?

November 1, 2025 / Updated November 1, 2025

A deep dive into Tokyo Racecourse on November 1, 2025, as the autumn racing season hits its peak. Based on professional indices, insider information, and training evaluations, we’ve carefully selected 10 horses with excellent betting value. From overwhelming favorites to high-value longshots, we’ll break down each horse’s strengths and weaknesses to give your betting strategy a powerful boost.

Article Highlights

• Tokyo 2R Mornike:A rock-solid favorite with an 86% Pro’s Favorite Index. Primed for victory with a shorter distance.
• Tokyo 9R Triple Coke:75% Favorite Index; an overwhelming talent experts are confident will win.
• Tokyo 12R Best Me Ever:Shows significant improvement in its second race after a layoff, with massive support from pros.
• Tokyo 1R Aoi Mizuho:A high-potential longshot with 222% Betting Value, aiming for a big payout with course suitability shown in its pedigree.
• Tokyo 6R Buena Diosa:A standout 264% Betting Value. A change in conditions could trigger a complete turnaround.

Tokyo 10R Koyo Stakes – Power Hall

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

Despite being the 4th favorite, it has a respectable Pro’s Favorite Index of 11% and a Contender Index of 45%. Notably, its “Betting Value,” which indicates the gap between real-time and pro-projected odds, is a high 158%. This suggests experts see more potential than the market does. While ranked 6th out of 12 in ability, it’s a very attractive pivot for exotic bets like the Trifecta and Trio.

Pedigree & Course Suitability

Sired by Suave Richard (Sunday Silence line) with a dam by Commands (Danzig line). The stamina and sharp late speed from its sire, combined with the speed and toughness from its dam’s side, make for an ideal combination for the Tokyo 1600m (mile) race, which demands high-speed cruising ability down the long straight.

Prediction Points

• High-Payout Potential: A high Betting Value of 158% suggests it could outperform its odds, offering great value.
• Exotic Bet Anchor: While not a top pick to win outright, its consistent ability makes it a strategic choice for 2nd or 3rd place in Trifecta or Trio bets.
• Course Suitability: Its pedigree, combining stamina and speed, is highly suited for the Tokyo 1600m course.

Tokyo 11R Perseus Stakes – Battle Cry

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

Projected as the 2nd favorite, it boasts an overwhelming Contender Index of 63%. Furthermore, its Betting Value reaches 167%, indicating that experts consider it the “most valuable challenger.” This suggests many pros find more betting value and reliability in Battle Cry than in the market’s top favorite.

Training & Stable Insights

After a past victory, jockey Keita Tosaki commented, “He’s gotten into really good condition… and he’s getting stronger,” noting the horse’s clear development. This is crucial testimony that the horse has physically matured and is reaching its peak racing ability.

Progress & Challenges Since Last Race

With Keita Tosaki, its record at Tokyo Dirt 1600m is 3 wins and 2 third-place finishes, boasting a 100% in-the-money rate. This absolute consistency with a specific course and jockey is a significant advantage not measured by simple ability indices. AI predictions also list it as a top contender.

Prediction Points

• Course Specialist: A perfect record at Tokyo Dirt 1600m with jockey Keita Tosaki, with a 100% in-the-money rate (3-0-2-0).
• Peaking Performance: Jockey comments confirm the horse has physically matured and is in a state to perform at its maximum potential.
• Pro-Endorsed Value: A high Betting Value of 167% and a dominant 63% Contender Index prove that experts rate this horse’s ability much higher than the market does.

Tokyo 12R 3YO+ 1-Win Class – Best Me Ever

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

While the market’s 2nd favorite, the professional evaluation is far superior. It has garnered overwhelming support with a 58% Favorite Index and a 69% Contender Index. A very high Betting Value of 171% also suggests a clear winning opportunity that the general public might be overlooking.

Training & Stable Insights

Reports on its final workout are filled with top-tier praise like “a more springy action than last race” and “truly in peak form.” The stable also commented, “His condition has improved dramatically,” confirming a significant physical and mental enhancement after one race.

Progress & Challenges Since Last Race

The horses it has lost to include many that went on to succeed in open class or graded stakes races. Having consistently competed against tougher opponents, the field in this race is clearly a step down in competition.

Prediction Points

• Peak Condition: Praised as being in “peak form” during workouts, it will enter the race at its physical and mental best.
• Second-Race Improvement: After a tune-up in its last race following a layoff, its condition is clearly on the rise. It embodies the “bet on the second race back” adage.
• Easier Competition: Has faced strong opponents in the past. The competition here is significantly weaker, allowing its experience to shine.
• Overwhelming Pro Support: An incredible 58% Favorite Index shows that experts are unanimously backing this horse.

Tokyo 1R 2YO Maiden – Aoi Mizuho

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

A dark horse projected as the 7th favorite, but it has a high Contender Index of 46% and an exceptional Betting Value of 222%. This means algorithms and experts see a potential far beyond its public perception, making it an unmissable longshot for a high payout.

Training & Stable Insights

In its final workout, it easily kept pace with Nishino Lykou, a higher-class horse, suggesting hidden ability. Trainer Yoshiaki Koga also noted its clear progress, saying, “His body has firmed up since his last race, and we can expect significant improvement.”

Progress & Challenges Since Last Race

After its debut, the jockey pointed out a lack of physical coordination affecting its acceleration, which was a sign of its immaturity. Now that it has race experience, this issue is likely being overcome, and a dramatic improvement in performance is highly possible.

Pedigree & Course Suitability

The strongest reason for this pick is that its full brother, Aoi Mimosa, has won twice on this very same Tokyo Dirt 1600m course. This is proven course suitability, and the source of its incredible 222% Betting Value.

Prediction Points

• Incredible Value: An outstanding 222% Betting Value indicates a major discrepancy between its odds and actual ability, making it a prime target.
• Proven Pedigree: Its full brother has won twice on this course, proving its bloodline is suited for this track.
• Overcoming Immaturity: The physical weakness seen in its debut is improving with experience, promising significant progress.
• Hidden Potential: Its ability to match a higher-class horse in training shows it has untapped potential not yet seen in a race.

Tokyo 2R 2YO Maiden – Mornike

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

This is the most reliable horse of the day. It has a phenomenal 86% Pro’s Favorite Index, meaning nearly all experts are confident in its victory. Despite being the top favorite, its Betting Value is also high at 188%, making it a “rock-solid” bet.

Training & Stable Insights

Its final workout on the Miho training track’s uphill course was effortless, earning the highest rating of “stable at a high level.” Trainer Takafumi Kanari showed absolute confidence in the strategic distance reduction, stating, “With that performance, a shorter distance will be easier to handle. I have high hopes.”

Progress & Challenges Since Last Race

After its last race, jockey Keita Tosaki commented, “It would be better if he could run a bit more calmly in the first half.” Based on this feedback, the team decided to shorten the distance to 1400m. This is a logical tactic to channel the temperament issue from its last race into raw speed.

Pedigree & Course Suitability

Its pedigree, by Indy Champ out of a Rock of Gibraltar mare, strongly supports this distance change. Its sire was a two-time G1 mile winner, and its bloodline is specialized for speed duels at a mile or less. The 1400m distance is its ideal stage.

Prediction Points

• Rock-Solid Pro Confidence: An exceptional 86% Favorite Index is proof that experts are unanimously convinced of its victory.
• Problem-Solving Distance Change: The team has made a precise adjustment to shorten the distance, addressing the only issue (temperament) from its last race.
• Perfect Preparation: Its workout was flawless. As rated “stable at a high level,” it will run in peak condition.
• Speed Pedigree: With a world-class miler bloodline, the move to 1400m is the best way to maximize its ability.

Tokyo 3R 2YO Maiden – Solanell Man

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

As the projected favorite, its numbers—65% Favorite Index and 72% Contender Index—speak to its extraordinary ability. The vast majority of experts see it as a certain contender, and its 160% Betting Value shows it still offers good value despite being popular.

Training & Stable Insights

Trainer Takahisa Tezuka commented, “He was good in his debut, but it was a bit of a rushed preparation. In a maiden race, his ability is a cut above.” Despite a strong 2nd place finish in its debut, the trainer asserts it wasn’t in top form, suggesting even greater potential.

Progress & Challenges Since Last Race

After its debut, jockey Christophe Lemaire noted some mental immaturity, saying, “His reaction was a bit slow.” Yet, to finish a close 2nd with no time difference is proof of exceptional talent. With one race under its belt, mental growth is almost certain.

Pedigree & Course Suitability

This is a blue-blooded horse, sired by two-time Tenno Sho (Spring) winner Fierement, out of Social Club, a daughter of the great mare Buena Vista. The 2000m distance is the perfect stage to fully utilize its stamina and late kick.

Prediction Points

• Superior Ability: The trainer states it’s “a cut above” for this class. It performed well in its debut despite not being fully prepared, so expect more this time.
• Blue-Blooded Potential: With a top-tier pedigree (Fierement x Buena Vista line), its potential is likely to blossom in its second race.
• Gains from Experience: The mental greenness shown in its debut is expected to be resolved with race experience.
• Solid Support: A high 65% Favorite Index shows a consensus among experts. It’s a solid anchor for bets.

Tokyo 5R 2YO Newcomer – Itoshisa

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

Despite it being its debut, it has garnered a high 36% Pro’s Favorite Index. Its Betting Value is also very high at 181%, indicating it’s a talent worth rating higher than its popularity suggests. It has enough appeal to overcome the uncertainties of a debut race.

Training & Stable Insights

Assistant trainer Yamazaki noted, “His improvement over the last two weeks has been remarkable,” suggesting a dramatic change in his workout movements. In his final workout, he clocked a sharp 11.4 seconds for the last furlong effortlessly, confirming his excellent condition and exceptional speed.

Pedigree & Course Suitability

It has a strong pedigree, sired by two-time G1 mile winner Indy Champ, out of the American G1 winner Albiano. Its dam also had success in Japanese mile graded stakes, making its suitability for the Tokyo mile course impeccable from a bloodline perspective.

Prediction Points

• High Hidden Potential: Despite its debut, experts rate it highly with a 36% Favorite Index.
• Rapid Workout Improvement: Its movement has improved dramatically in the last two weeks of training. It shows sharp form against higher-class horses, indicating it’s fully prepared.
• High Mile Aptitude: Its pedigree (Indy Champ x Albiano) is an optimal combination for the Tokyo mile.
• Ready for Debut: While some mental immaturity remains, it has enough speed and fitness to compensate and be a contender from the start.

Tokyo 6R 3YO+ 1-Win Class – Buena Diosa

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

A complete longshot at 14th favorite, but its most notable feature is the highest “Betting Value” in this analysis at 264%. This means the algorithm has identified an extremely large gap between its market evaluation and its ability, making it a horse with upset potential.

Training & Stable Insights

A brief comment on its workout was “sharper after one race,” suggesting its condition has improved since its last run. Trainer Masashi Okudaira also gave a positive comment: “His condition is improving, so I’m hoping he can be competitive.”

Progress & Challenges Since Last Race

Its last race was on turf, but this time it switches to dirt. It has run well on dirt in the past, and this change of surface could be the trigger for a breakout performance. This is a classic pattern for an underdog to succeed.

Prediction Points

• Outstanding Betting Value: An incredible 264% figure shows that its potential and current odds are completely mismatched.
• Hoping for a Turnaround: The switch from turf to dirt could be a positive factor, potentially unlocking its hidden ability.
• Improving Condition: Workout and stable comments suggest improvement from its last race, so it shouldn’t be underestimated.

Tokyo 7R 3YO+ 1-Win Class – Ouken Silver

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

A strong contender with top-tier support as the 2nd favorite and a high 17% Pro’s Favorite Index. Its Betting Value is also a solid 163%, making it a well-balanced horse in terms of popularity, ability, and betting value. Experts have noted it has “proven to be a top contender in this class and is well-prepared to compete.”

Training & Stable Insights

As per expert evaluation, it has completed a sufficient amount of training and is judged to be in good condition. It is ready to perform to its full ability, making it a reliable type that is unlikely to falter, perfect as an anchor for bets.

Pedigree & Course Suitability

Sired by New Year’s Day with a dam by Captain Steve. Its sire’s side is an American dirt pedigree, combining power and speed. It has shown consistent performance on the stamina-demanding Tokyo Dirt 2100m course, so there are no concerns about its course suitability.

Prediction Points

• Top-Class Ability: It has already proven it has the ability to win at this level.
• Smooth Preparation: With ample training, its preparation is perfect. It’s in a state to give its all.
• Consistency and Value: Its stable running style is appealing. A 163% Betting Value also makes it an ideal anchor for bets.

Tokyo 9R Motosuko Tokubetsu – Triple Coke

Overall Assessment & Current Analysis

The projected favorite, with a 75% Pro’s Favorite Index, it has overwhelming support second only to Mornike. Its Betting Value is also extremely high at 235%, suggesting experts believe “a win is almost inevitable.” Even moving up in class, it will not relinquish its leading role.

Training & Stable Insights

The fact that the same jockey continues to ride shows the stable’s confidence. After its impressive debut win, jockey Lemaire praised its potential, saying, “His top speed is great. He can handle a bit more distance,” so the longer distance in this race should be welcome.

Progress & Challenges Since Last Race

Its last win was highly praised: “On a track where the inside was dead, its acceleration in the straight was phenomenal. It was a class apart from the rest of the field.” With a pedigree by Kitasan Black out of a To Pee mare, there are no concerns about the distance extension; its strength may even be more pronounced.

Prediction Points

• Absolute Expert Confidence: An overwhelming 75% Favorite Index is a testament to the absolute trust in this horse.
• Jockey-Praised Top Speed: It possesses top-tier speed that jockey Lemaire has praised since its debut.
• Distance Extension is a Plus: Based on its pedigree and race performance, the extension to 2400m is likely to be a positive factor.
• A Different Class of Winner: Its performance in the last race was truly “a class apart,” and the gap in ability is unlikely to be closed even in a higher class.