目次 Key Points:Ohi 02…
Jpn-Grade Shin Medaisy vs. Local Champion Meisho Taisetsu
This is a prediction article for the 66th Tokai Kikka Sho (SP1), held on November 13, 2025. Centered on the showdown between Shin Medaisy, boasting Jpn-grade achievements, and Meisho Taisetsu, undefeated at its home track in Nagoya, we conduct a thorough analysis based solely on objective facts like course characteristics and past performance data. We’ll detail key prediction points, from horses that hold the key to the race on the front-runner-favored Nagoya 2000m course, to dark horse candidates emerging from the data.
On November 13, 2025, the traditional long-distance graded race, the “66th Tokai Kikka Sho (SP1),” will be held at Nagoya Racecourse. This race, bearing the Aichi Governor’s Cup, is an open competition for thoroughbreds aged three and older, run on the 2000m dirt track. The race will be held at night with a post time of 20:00. This year, a field of 11 elite horses has gathered, against a full gate of 12. An exciting race is expected, pitting visiting horses with experience in Jpn-grade races against local contenders who know the track inside and out.
For this article, we are unable to confirm training data and stable comments, which are usually central to predictions, due to a data acquisition error. Therefore, we will completely eliminate speculation and conjecture, and thoroughly analyze and dissect the race points based solely on objective facts: the official performance charts (past race data) and course characteristic data.
To grasp the key prediction points, it is essential to first understand the characteristics of the Nagoya Dirt 2000m course. Analysis shows that due to its layout, the Nagoya Dirt 2000m is known as a course that “fundamentally favors front-running and pace-setting horses.” Statistically, horses with these running styles have a top-three finish rate of about 56%, while closers coming from the back of the pack tend to struggle.
Regarding gate positions, data from past Nagoya 2000m races (including data from the Nagoya Daishoten) shows that “Gate 8” has produced the most winners. With these course characteristics—namely, “① Absolute advantage for front-runners” and “② Favorable trend for Gate 8”—as our premise, the most crucial task for this prediction is to scrutinize the past performance data of all 11 runners.
In this year’s Tokai Kikka Sho, the performance data clearly shows a two-horse race, with two top contenders possessing contrasting strengths: “Jpn-grade class” and “home track advantage.”
Among the entrants, Shin Medaisy from the Kochi stable stands at the absolute top in terms of achievements and “class.” The most noteworthy aspect of this horse’s performance data is its brilliant record in graded exchange races.
Not only is Shin Medaisy the only horse among the 11 runners to have competed on the Jpn1 stage (Teio Sho), but three races ago in the Nagoya Grand Prix, it secured an impressive 2nd place against strong contenders from both central and regional racing associations in a Jpn2 race under nearly identical conditions (Nagoya Dirt 2100m). This “top-two finish record in a Jpn2 race at Nagoya” is the strongest indicator of reliability in this SP1-grade event, towering over the competition. Furthermore, its running positions in past races indicate a versatile “stalking” style, allowing it to position itself just behind the leaders. Its consistent high placings in races of 2000m or more, which demand stamina, are a true testament to its “class.”
If Shin Medaisy is the leader in “class,” then the champion of “home track and course suitability” is the Nagoya-based Meisho Taisetsu. Its “record at this course” listed on the performance chart is nothing short of spectacular.
Record at this course (Nagoya): [11-1-0-0]
As the data shows, Meisho Taisetsu has run at Nagoya Racecourse 12 times, winning 11 and placing 2nd once. It has never finished outside the top two, boasting an incredible course suitability. It is literally “unbeatable” at its home track. Moreover, an analysis of its running positions in past races reveals it to be a typical “front-runner.” This “front-running style of Meisho Taisetsu” perfectly aligns with the “Nagoya 2000m favors front-runners” course characteristic analyzed in Section 1. In terms of race pace and positioning, its advantage is unparalleled.
However, there is one question mark in the data analysis. Its last four races listed on the performance chart were all at distances of 1700m or less. While its absolute dominance at its home track is proven, whether it can handle the “2000m” distance of this race is an “unknown” based on the available data. The biggest focus of this prediction is the data comparison between these two horses: “Shin Medaisy with its Jpn-grade record and stamina” versus “Meisho Taisetsu with its supreme local front-running ability but unproven at the distance.”
Beyond the two main contenders, there are other strong horses that could influence the race. Here is an analysis of all 11 runners based on objective performance chart data.
Analyzing the past race data (running positions) of all 11 horses, there are no other clear “front-runners” besides Meisho Taisetsu. Therefore, the data strongly suggests a high probability that he will easily take the lead and secure an extremely advantageous position, either “leading uncontested” or sitting “uncontested in second.”
On the front-runner-favored Nagoya 2000m track, the local champion is highly likely to gain the significant advantage of setting his own pace.
Based on the objective data analysis so far, we summarize the “Tokai Kikka Sho Prediction Points” into four items.Point 1: Can the Jpn-Grade “Class” be trusted?Shin Medaisy’s top-two finish in a “Nagoya Jpn2” race is far superior in this SP1 event. The key question is whether home track advantage and pace can overcome this “class.”Point 2: Which horse will gain the “pace advantage” on this “front-runner-favored” course?According to the data, Meisho Taisetsu is most likely to gain the pace advantage (leading uncontested). His clearest path to victory is to run away with it from the front.Point 3: Adaptability to the “2000m” distance is the biggest key.Meisho Taisetsu’s only weakness is his lack of a track record at 2000m. On the other hand, Shin Medaisy, Mad Roulette, and Not Regret have clearly demonstrated long-distance performance in their data, and the stamina comparison could be decisive.Point 4: Is there a chance for a dark horse?Mad Roulette, who has a direct victory over Meisho Taisetsu, and the visiting Not Regret, with his exceptional consistency in long-distance races, are horses that cannot be ignored for betting purposes, as they are prime candidates for an upset if the top two falter.
In this article, we have completely excluded subjective information like training reports and stable comments, providing analysis and predictions for the Tokai Kikka Sho based solely on public data. Will the Jpn-grade “class” of Shin Medaisy dominate the field as expected? Will the unbeatable local champion Meisho Taisetsu overcome the distance concern by leading from the start? Or will a dark horse break into the two-horse battle?
Based on this data analysis and pace projection, our final conclusion (top picks: ◎○▲) and recommended bets can be viewed at the link below.