Ampadeu’s “Absolute Ability” and the “Vein of Expected Value” Hidden in Late Autumn Tokyo & Kyoto
November 29, 2025
Overview
This article provides a deep analysis of four highly anticipated horses participating in JRA races on November 29, 2025, at Tokyo and Kyoto racecourses. It focuses on identifying horses with high “expected value,” defined as the discrepancy between market odds and intrinsic value derived from data and insider information. The analysis aims to offer a betting strategy with high investment value, based on data, theory, pedigree, training, stable strategy, and course suitability.
Key Recommendations
Tokyo R12 Ampadeu
Core Horse
Estimated Expected Value: 193%
Highlighted for absolute ability and an impregnable setup.
Kyoto R2 Supreme Realm
High Dividends
Expected Value: 141%
Potential to awaken hidden power through a switch to dirt.
Kyoto R9 Genius Barrows
Comeback Run
Expected Value: 149%
Showing remarkable signs of recovery under favorable dry track conditions.
Tokyo R8 Newfound
Superior Class
Expected Value: 143%
Returning to its preferred long-distance dirt race, likely to demonstrate superior class.
Detailed Analysis
Tokyo R12 Ampadeu
Expected Value: 193%
3yo+ Allowance, Turf 1600m
Horse Details
- Name: Ampadeu
- Sex/Age: Colt 4yo
- Jockey: C. Lemaire
- Stable: Miho, Tetsuya Kimura
- Sire: Iffraaj
- Dam’s Sire: Dubawi
Pedigree Analysis
Sire Iffraaj: Champion European miler, known for passing on speed and early maturity.
Dam’s Sire Dubawi: A “versatile giant” producing G1 winners across all categories and surfaces.
Cross: “Iffraaj × Dubawi” combines European stamina with essential high-level racing speed.
Training Analysis
Final fast work on Miho Woodchip Course (Yielding) on November 26 (Wednesday): 84.5 – 68.4 – 53.2 – 37.9 – 11.3 seconds (last furlong).
The “11.3 seconds” for the last furlong, repeated for two consecutive weeks, indicates a high standard of speed ability.
Training commentary noted “spirited run” and “physique has also tightened up,” resolving previous slight overweight concerns.
Stable’s Strategy
Combination of Tetsuya Kimura Stable and jockey C. Lemaire is a “golden equation for victory.”
Assistant trainer Tsuchida stated condition hasn’t dropped, improvement from the last race, and a desire for a result.
Retaining C. Lemaire indicates the stable is “aiming to win.”
Course Suitability and Race Development Forecast
Tokyo turf 1600m favors horses with a powerful late kick. Ampadeu’s sharp closing speed was exceptional in his previous race.
With a tighter physique and sharpened reactions, he is expected to demonstrate greater burst.
Versatile positioning is possible with Lemaire.
Conclusion
Ampadeu shows no weaknesses. The 193% expected value quantifies a “favorable distortion” between his victory probability and market odds. Recommended as the immovable core horse.
Kyoto R2 Supreme Realm
Expected Value: 141%
2yo Maiden, Dirt 1800m
Horse Details
- Name: Supreme Realm
- Sex/Age: Colt 2yo
- Jockey: Junya Nishimura
- Stable: Ritto, Tomokazu Takano
- Sire: Epiphaneia
- Dam’s Sire: Dubawi
Pedigree Background
Sire Epiphaneia, with bloodlines of Roberto and Sadler’s Wells, known for power and stamina.
Dam Dubawi Heights and dam’s sire Dubawi: Bloodlines that excelled in dirt G1 races, imbuing Supreme Realm with power for tough tracks.
Potential: “Lack of finish” on turf is likely to convert to driving power on dirt.
Training Analysis
Training on the Ritto sloped track provides clues to dirt aptitude.
Final fast work: Strong 12.2 seconds for the last furlong, ridden easily.
Previous workout: Exceptional 11.9 seconds for the last furlong, demonstrating extraordinary leg strength for a 2-year-old.
Stable’s Decision
Trainer Tomokazu Takano switched to dirt hoping it would work out well, analyzing previous turf limitations.
Decision leverages the horse’s “tenacity” and “stamina” on dirt.
Comment: “Dirt tenacity thrives.”
Prediction Points
Owner: Shadai Race Horse. Jockey: Junya Nishimura (achieving excellent recent results). Stable: Takano (forming a solid setup).
“Golden Combo of Shadai RH & Junya Nishimura J” noted for high recovery rate.
Kyoto Dirt 1800m from an outside draw is ideal for a smooth position.
Conclusion
Supreme Realm’s switch to dirt is a “logical choice” based on winning prospects. Pedigree, training, and stable intentions align. Expected to break maiden with power and front-running ability.
Kyoto R9 Genius Barrows
Expected Value: 149%
3yo+ Allowance, Dirt 1800m
Horse Details
- Name: Genius Barrows
- Sex/Age: Colt 5yo
- Jockey: Jun Takada
- Stable: Ritto, Yasuyuki Tsujino
- Sire: Heart’s Cry
- Dam’s Sire: Sakura Bakushin O
Pedigree Background
Heart’s Cry progeny: Known for “growth potential” and “late-blooming tendency.” At 5 years old, entering peak condition.
Dam’s Sire Sakura Bakushin O: Imparts speed.
Combination: Sire’s stamina and dam’s speed suit middle-distance dirt. Suitability: High for Kyoto Dirt 1800m, a flat course requiring sustained speed.
Stable’s Testimony
Trainer Tsujino: “He’s finally taking the bit and running like he used to. He can definitely perform well on a dry track.”
Recent poor performances attributed to unfavorable soft ground. Mental state has recovered; dry track expected to allow true ability to show.
Training Analysis
One-week prior workout: Good time on Ritto’s CW course, “noticeably good physique.”
Race week: Final adjustment on the sloped track on Monday, perfect schedule. Indicates confidence in condition, comparable to or better than past peak form.
Prediction Points
Kyoto Dirt 1800m course layout suits Genius Barrows’ leading and tenacious running style.
Continuation of regular jockey Jun Takada, familiar with the horse’s characteristics, is a significant positive.
Conclusion
Genius Barrows is a “hidden dark horse” unfairly underestimated. Overlooked despite favorable conditions represents a “market distortion” with a 149% expected value. Expected to defy odds with a strong run on a dry track.
Tokyo R8 Newfound
Expected Value: 143%
3yo+ Allowance, Dirt 2100m
Horse Details
- Name: Newfound
- Sex/Age: Gelding 3yo
- Jockey: Yukito Ishikawa
- Stable: Miho, Kaoru Aizawa
- Sire: New Year’s Day
- Dam’s Sire: Stay Gold
Pedigree Background
Sire New Year’s Day: US dirt G1 winner, providing dirt aptitude. Dam’s Sire Stay Gold: Imparts endless stamina.
Combination: Exhibits unparalleled strength on Tokyo Dirt 2100m.
Previous Victory: Has a win record on this exact course.
Stable’s Strategy
Previous race: Disregarded graded stakes challenge. Layoff due to osselet: Expected to be positive if fully recovered.
Trainer Aizawa: “He’s a bit heavy, so we’ll work him hard right before the race. I think he’ll be ready.”
Return to Allowance class: Competition is eased, allowing demonstration of superior class.
Training Analysis
Final fast work: Excellent overall time of 81.9 seconds on Miho Woodchip course. Stamina and cardiopulmonary function are at race level.
“Slightly heavy but good physique” interpreted as growth; sufficient training completed.
Prediction Points
Regular jockey Yukito Ishikawa’s continuous riding is reassuring, leveraging the horse’s stamina.
Gelding status: Less temperament inconsistency, a plus in long-distance races.
Conclusion
Newfound is “cut above the rest” in this class. Having overcome trials and returned to his own class, it’s an excellent investment opportunity. Expected to show true strength in his own class and powerful surge down Tokyo’s long stretch.
Overall Conclusion: Today’s Investment Strategy
On November 29, 2025, four horses offer “doors to victory”:
- Tokyo R12 Ampadeu: Solid core horse, expected to win consistently due to absolute speed and jockey C. Lemaire. Highlighted by 193% expected value.
- Kyoto R2 Supreme Realm: Harbinger of high dividends with transformative dirt switch potential. Expected to break maiden with power.
- Kyoto R9 Genius Barrows: Dark horse expected to defy odds with a strong run on a dry track, aided by recovery signs.
- Tokyo R8 Newfound: Stamina-laden long-distance specialist poised to show true strength in his own class.
Betting Strategy:
Target these horses for Win and Place bets. Combine them as core selections in Quinella or Trifecta bets for a robust portfolio designed for positive returns.
Disclaimer: Purchase betting tickets at your own risk. Always confirm final information such as odds and horse weights from the official event organizer.
english
english
english![[Nov 1, 2025 Maiden Race Predictions] In-depth Analysis of Top Prospects Saliente, Rajabrook, and More!](https://sp-ao.shortpixel.ai/client/to_webp,q_glossy,ret_img,w_300,h_200/https://keibastat.net/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/compressed_ChatGPT-Image-2025年10月31日-22_52_14-300x200.png)
english
english
english