目次 I. はじめにII. 鞍馬ステーク…
Can the Undefeated Two M Freak Continue Her Streak? Full Analysis & Betting Tips
November 26, 2025 / Updated: November 26, 2025
Here are our expert predictions for the “Tochigi Wagyu Sho Tokubetsu (C1)” at Urawa Racecourse on November 27, 2025. Focusing on the phenomenal mare Two M Freak, currently on a 10-race winning streak since her debut, we provide a deep dive into course characteristics, the latest track bias, pedigree, training data, and a professional evaluation of every horse to formulate a winning strategy and concrete betting recommendations.
The “Tochigi Wagyu Sho Tokubetsu,” held at Urawa Racecourse on November 27, 2025, may seem like just another C1 class, 1500m dirt race. However, this race features the phenomenal mare, Two M Freak, who is chasing an incredible 11th consecutive victory since her debut. Her performance is more than just a record; it’s a litmus test that could reshape the power dynamics of the mid-distance division in Minami Kanto horse racing.
In this article, we provide a comprehensive, fact-based analysis of the “Tochigi Wagyu Sho Tokubetsu,” covering each horse’s pedigree, training regimen, and the latest track bias to pave a clear path to victory.
The Urawa 1500m dirt course has a unique layout, starting from a “pocket” behind the 4th corner. This results in an extremely short distance to the first turn, heavily influencing the race’s development.
Urawa’s 1200m circumference makes it a tight course with sharp turns that demand agility. Horses with long strides or clumsy movements are forced to slow down in the corners, and with Urawa’s short straight, making up lost ground is difficult. Making a wide, sweeping move (“makuri”) is also less effective, making a forward position by the 4th corner crucial.
Analysis of the recent Urawa race days (Nov 25-26) shows a clear trend towards a “fast” and “front-runner dominant” track. The track has been consistently “good to yielding” or “yielding,” creating a firm surface where front-runners don’t tire. This creates a desperate bias against closers and late-runners.
| Date | Track Condition | Main Winning Time (1400m) | Running Style Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25 (Tue) | Yielding | 1:32.2 (2-y-o) | Front-runners favored, inside lane strong |
| Nov 26 (Wed) | Yielding/Good to Yielding | 1:30.4 (C1) | Pacesetters/Front-runners favored, fast times |
The main attraction of this race is Two M Freak (Gate 2, Mare, 5 y.o., Urawa – Ozawa Stable). With 10 wins from 10 starts, her potential is limitless.
Her pedigree, by Majestic Warrior (A.P. Indy line) out of a dam by Empire Maker, is a proven formula for success on dirt. The fusion of her sire’s sustained speed and her dam’s sire’s stamina and power makes her a perfectly formed miler, best suited for distances from 1400m to 1600m.
In her last C1 race (Urawa 1400m), she won with an exceptional time of 1:29.0. Her solid performance, breaking away from a fast pace, demonstrated a decisive ability gap with her rivals. This time is equivalent to a 6-7 length difference compared to other races in the same class.
She clocked a fast time in her final workout while being held back, indicating she is maintaining top form. Trainer Ozawa’s comment that she is “still evolving” suggests she has more room to grow and reflects the stable’s confidence.
The only potential concern is the distance extension to 1500m, but her pedigree suggests this could actually be a positive. She has no issues with settling, and a dominant, front-running performance from the inside gate makes an 11th consecutive win highly likely.
Here are the key contenders who could potentially challenge Two M Freak’s dominance.
Nervis Zeta (Gate 6, Filly, 3 y.o.) is the youngest in the field and has untapped potential. She performed well in her last race, finishing 5th against older horses in a C1 class. Her final workout was impressive, suggesting she’s in even better condition now. With jockey Tsubasa Sasagawa and a weight advantage (54kg), she has upset potential.
Elegant Jewelry (Gate 7, Mare, 5 y.o.) is a natural speedster. Inheriting her sire Danon Legend’s pace, she faces no other front-runners in this lineup. If she can smoothly take the lead from her outside gate, she could leverage the current fast track to hold on for a strong finish.
Hubble (Gate 4, Colt, 5 y.o.) is a talented horse from the stable of renowned Minami Kanto trainer Satoshi Kokubo. Despite recent poor form, the stable’s comment that he has been “retuned” and his Urawa-friendly pedigree (dam’s sire is Pyro) cannot be ignored. His training shows signs of a revival, and if he runs to his potential, he will be in the mix.
[Gate 1] Live GarnetExcellent gate, but high risk of getting boxed in based on recent starts. Best to watch.[Gate 2] Two M Freak【Favorite】. Ability, gate, and race flow are all in her favor. No weaknesses found.[Gate 3] Raikou no HikariReturning from a layoff is a negative. Shorter distance is also an unknown.[Gate 4] Hubble【Place】. Expecting improvement from being retuned. Worth considering due to stable strength.[Gate 5] Cosmo PandoraContinued poor form makes a turnaround unlikely. Pass.[Gate 6] Nervis Zeta【Top Contender】. Her growth and excellent training are appealing. The top challenger to Two M Freak.[Gate 7] Elegant Jewelry【Dark Horse】. If she gets an uncontested lead, she could hold on. Key to the race’s pace.[Gate 8] RenderingA quick turnaround in her race schedule is a concern. A contender for minor placings at best.[Gate 9] Hakusan TopQuestionable ability to handle a high-speed race.[Gate 10] CommodoresFacing tougher competition, likely to struggle.[Gate 11] Stoic NoahThe wide outside gate is a major disadvantage. May not be a factor.[Gate 12] Don AresReturning from a long layoff, and the stable is cautious. Wait and see.
| Horse No. | Horse Name | Time (5F – 3F) | Pace | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Two M Freak | 55.9 – 40.8 | Canter | S |
| 6 | Nervis Zeta | 55.3 – 40.1 | Slightly urged | A |
| 4 | Hubble | 54.5 – 41.0 | Slightly urged | B+ |
| 3 | Raikou no Hikari | 54.5 – 39.3 | Slightly urged | B |
The training times clearly show the outstanding condition of Two M Freak and Nervis Zeta.
Lead: 7 Elegant Jewelry
Forward: 2 Two M Freak, 6 Nervis Zeta
The most likely scenario is Elegant Jewelry taking the lead, with Two M Freak tracking closely on the inside. On the current Urawa track, front-runners are not fading, making this a perfect setup for Two M Freak. She is expected to take the lead early around the 3rd or 4th corner and pull away for the win.
We conclude that Two M Freak’s 11th consecutive victory is highly probable. This race is a stepping stone for her to advance to higher classes.
This concludes our analysis. For the final professional opinion and betting slips, which will consider the latest odds and paddock conditions, please check the link below.Check Final Predictions on netkeiba.com