Suzuran Sho 2025 Predictions: Jpn1 Veteran Helios or Rising Star Suzuka Goketsu? A Deep Dive on All 11 Runners

November 2, 2025

A race preview for the 48th Suzuran Sho (M3) at Morioka Racecourse on November 2, 2025. The main focus is the showdown between Jpn1 veteran Helios and the in-form local star Suzuka Goketsu. This article provides a thorough analysis of the top four contenders’ strengths and weaknesses based on three key factors: Morioka dirt 1800m course suitability, recent form, and predicted race pace. We break down all 11 runners to help you conquer this challenging race.

Key Takeaways

• The 2025 Suzuran Sho centers on the clash between “Helios,” a seasoned Jpn1 contender from the central circuit, and “Suzuka Goketsu,” a local horse in peak form.
• The three keys to victory are: suitability for the Morioka Dirt 1800m, recent momentum, and predicting the race pace.
• The top contenders form a “Big Four”: Helios, Suzuka Goketsu, Morioka course specialist Miniature, and Seiran Sho winner Hiroshikun.
• Ryan is expected to take the lead, but a potential slow pace must be considered.
• Miniature, with her weight advantage, offers great betting value if her odds are favorable.

Suzuran Sho 2025: Race Outlook & Keys to Victory

On November 2, 2025, Morioka Racecourse will host the 48th Suzuran Sho (M3). The race is set for 17:35 over 1800m on the left-handed dirt track, featuring talented horses aged three and older. This year’s main event is a classic showdown: a proven contender from the premier JRA circuit versus a local Iwate horse hitting its stride.

Will the seasoned veteran Helios, with his Jpn1 experience, demonstrate his class? Or will local heroes like Suzuka Goketsu, who delivered a stunning performance in his last race, or Miniature, who knows the Morioka course inside and out, leverage their home-field advantage for an upset? This “JRA Record vs. Local Momentum” narrative makes the race all the more compelling.

To crack this challenging race, three factors are key:

• Course Suitability: The Morioka Dirt 1800m is a tough course that demands both stamina and power. A horse’s track record here is a critical indicator of its ability.
• Recent Form vs. Class: Should you prioritize a horse with strong recent performances or one with a history of success in higher-grade races? This is a timeless debate in horse racing and a central theme of this year’s Suzuran Sho.
• Pace Prediction: Understanding the race’s likely pace based on each horse’s running style is essential. Whether it’s a slow pace favoring front-runners or a fast pace that sets up closers will drastically change which horses have the advantage.

The presence of Helios, in particular, will significantly influence the entire race. Although he finished poorly in his last two starts, the Sakitama Hai (Jpn1) and the Mile Championship Nambu Hai (Jpn1), his resume alone will attract considerable attention from fans. This potential over-popularity could inflate the odds of other strong contenders, like Suzuka Goketsu, creating excellent betting value. Furthermore, other teams will be watching Helios closely, which could lead to an unusual early pace and positioning, adding another layer of uncertainty to the race.

Top Contenders: Data-Driven Analysis of the “Big Four”

Based on the data, we’ll conduct a thorough analysis of the four most promising contenders, highlighting their strengths and potential weaknesses.

Helios: Glory and Shadow, The Veteran’s Verdict

• Record and Experience: A 9-year-old gelding with a career record of 10 wins and 8 second-place finishes. His last two starts were in Jpn1 races, giving him a class edge over this field.
• Course Suitability: He has a strong record at Morioka of [1-1-1-2]. He won the Asunaro Sho over this same course and distance four starts ago, so the track is not a concern.
• Recent Form: Finished 10th in the Sakitama Hai and 12th in the Mile CS Nambu Hai, struggling against top-tier competition. However, his 4th place finish in the Seiran Sho at Mizusawa two starts back shows he can still compete at the local graded stakes level.

While his record is top-notch, there are concerns about his decline due to age. Helios is a horse that forces a decision: do you bet on his class or fade him due to his recent form? Facing a much weaker field after his Jpn1 campaigns, the key question is whether he can recapture his former brilliance.

Suzuka Goketsu: Peak Form! Aiming for the Top

• Recent Momentum: Currently in the form of his life. He delivered a dominant victory in the Kinka Tokubetsu at Morioka on October 20, winning by a commanding 0.8 seconds.
• Race Style: In his last race, he showcased excellent race sense and a powerful turn of foot, moving from 6th to 2nd around the final turn before pulling away in the stretch. This versatile running style is a major asset.
• Consistency: With one win and two second-place finishes in his last three starts, he has been consistently in the mix, proving he is at his peak.

He is arguably the horse with the most momentum in this field. While he lacks experience against top JRA competition, his current form and consistent performance at his home track in Iwate are highly commendable. Suzuka Goketsu brings “momentum” to challenge Helios’s “class.”

Miniature: The Queen with an Astonishing Win Rate

• Career Record: Boasts an incredible record of 17 wins, 7 seconds, and 5 thirds from 43 starts. Her ability to win is particularly noteworthy.
• Course Suitability: Her record at Morioka is a staggering [9-1-1-1], making it her home turf. She is a true course specialist.
• Weight Advantage: As a mare, she carries 55kg, 2kg less than top male contenders like Helios and Suzuka Goketsu. This is a significant advantage over the 1800m distance.

Although she finished 3rd in her last start, she won the Fairy Cup over 1800m at Morioka in August, so there are no concerns about the distance or course. As the local queen, she is expected to run with pride against the transferees from the central circuit.

Hiroshikun: Can the Seiran Sho Champion Rise Again?

• Head-to-Head Record: He won the Seiran Sho (1600m) at Mizusawa on September 21, defeating popular rivals in this race, Helios (4th) and Ryan (5th). This direct victory is a valuable piece of data for comparison.
• Recent Form: After his Seiran Sho victory, he challenged the Mile CS Nambu Hai and fought hard for a 3rd place finish. Competing well on the Jpn1 stage proves his talent is genuine.
• Running Style: He demonstrated tactical versatility in the Seiran Sho, stalking from 3rd position before making his move. His adaptable style makes him less dependent on the race pace.

The fact that he has already beaten some of his main rivals is his strongest selling point. If he can replicate his performance from the Seiran Sho, he will undoubtedly be a major contender here.

Full Field Diagnosis: Rating All 11 Runners

Here is an individual diagnosis of each horse based on their recent performances.

1. 1. AlexaRecent Form: Finished 8th in the Mombetsu Drefong Sho. Has been struggling in recent races, failing to make an impact from the rear.
   Evaluation: This is his first race since transferring to Iwate. His suitability for the Morioka course is unknown, and he faces a tough challenge.
2. 2. HeliosRecent Form: 12th in the Mile CS Nambu Hai (Jpn1), 4th in the Seiran Sho. Notably, he won the Asunaro Sho over this course and distance four starts ago (Time: 1:52.7).
   Evaluation: While he hasn’t performed well in recent Jpn1 races, his previous start shows he is a top contender in local graded stakes. A rebound is expected on his preferred track.
3. 3. Suzuka GoketsuRecent Form: Won the Kinka Tokubetsu (Time: 1:36.1), closing from 6th position for an impressive victory.
   Evaluation: He is in peak form, and his momentum is undeniable. His consistency since switching to dirt is excellent. The step up to 1800m is a question, but he looks capable of handling it.
4. 4. RyanRecent Form: 5th in the Seiran Sho. Two starts back, he led wire-to-wire to win the Shoshu Tokubetsu.
   Evaluation: His early speed is his main weapon. Although defeated by Hiroshikun and Helios last time, he could bounce back if he controls the pace.
5. 5. RailgunRecent Form: Finished 2nd in his last two starts, showing consistency without managing to win.
   Evaluation: A reliable closer with a solid late kick. If the pace is fast, he could sweep past the field in the stretch.
6. 6. MiniatureRecent Form: 3rd in the Venus Sprint. Three starts ago, she won the Fairy Cup over this course and distance (Time: 1:53.0).
   Evaluation: A Morioka course specialist. She’s proven at the distance, and the 55kg weight is a major plus. She cannot be overlooked.
7. 7. Last ManRecent Form: In good form with two consecutive 2nd place finishes.
   Evaluation: Like Railgun, he is a closer. His finishing kick is still sharp, and he will be a threat if the leaders set a fast pace.
8. 8. Noble SaturnRecent Form: Struggling in graded stakes, finishing 10th in the Mile CS Nambu Hai and 9th in the Seiran Sho.
   Evaluation: At 11 years old, this veteran seems to have lost his edge. It’s hard to see him contending for the win.
9. 9. FulgurantRecent Form: Comes into this race on a high note after winning the Kanro Tokubetsu.
   Evaluation: A 4-year-old on the rise. He finished 6th in the Seiran Sho but is lightly raced and has room for improvement.
10. 10. HiroshikunRecent Form: Won the Seiran Sho two starts back, defeating Helios. Followed up with a strong 3rd in the Mile CS Nambu Hai.
    Evaluation: His record and recent form are impeccable. He is undoubtedly one of the main protagonists in this race.
11. 11. ShinyomoginesuRecent Form: Has been finishing at the back of the pack in recent starts with no signs of a turnaround.
    Evaluation: Faces a very difficult task.

Race Pace Analysis & Betting Strategy

Analyzing each horse’s running style gives us a picture of how the race might unfold.

• Front-runners: Ryan, who won wire-to-wire two starts ago, is the most likely to take the lead.
• Stalkers/Mid-pack: Top contenders like Suzuka Goketsu, Helios, and Hiroshikun prefer to sit just off the pace. The battle for position among these horses will be a key factor mid-race.
• Closers: Railgun and Last Man will conserve energy at the back and rely on their finishing kick in the home stretch.

The most likely scenario is Ryan setting the pace with the main contenders tracking him. However, there are no dedicated front-runners in this field. Since Ryan doesn’t always go to the lead, there’s a real possibility of a slow pace if the jockeys are hesitant to commit early.

A fast pace would benefit the closers like Railgun and Last Man. Conversely, a slow pace would favor front-running Ryan and stalkers with a good turn of foot, such as Suzuka Goketsu and Hiroshikun.

Betting Strategy

• “Momentum” vs. “Class”: The core of your betting strategy will be deciding between Suzuka Goketsu’s current form and Helios’s proven class.
• Read the Pace: Betting on closers (Railgun, Last Man) is a high-risk, high-reward play that assumes a fast pace.
• Don’t Forget the Specialist: If her odds are generous, Morioka expert Miniature is a must-include in your wagers.

Conclusion: The Final Verdict

This article has provided a data-driven analysis of each horse and the key points for your betting strategy. For our final conclusions and specific betting recommendations, please follow the link below.See the Final Picks