Comprehensive Race Analysis & Prediction
November 29, 2025 | Tokyo Racecourse | 1400m Dirt
Key Takeaways
Two-Horse Race
A showdown is expected between 3-year-old filly Promist Jean and the seasoned Estrella de Belen.
Gate Bias Nuance
While outside gates are favored, data shows the innermost gates at Tokyo Dirt 1400m can be surprisingly competitive.
High-Pace Expected
An intense early pace will test fundamental ability and sustained finishing power, making stamina crucial for victory.
Blinkers on Watch
Horses like Strength and Gekizaru, newly equipped with blinkers, could emerge as serious dark horse threats.
Course Characteristics: Tokyo Dirt 1400m
Pace & Positioning
Turf Acceleration: The unique start on turf is critical. Outside gates get a longer run on the faster surface, aiding in securing a favorable early position and contributing to a very fast initial pace.
Pace Intensification: A downhill section post-start further amplifies the pace. This demanding layout requires horses in the 3-win class to possess exceptional fundamental ability to manage energy for the long final straight.
Gate Data Peculiarities
1
Gate 1 shows a surprisingly high win rate, defying the general trend. Favorable for Asia Mission & Promist Jean, but with risk of being boxed in.
2-3
Gates 2 and 3 tend to struggle statistically, showing lower performance.
4-6
Performance improves, creating a “U-shaped” trend. Statistically favors Doutap & Happy London.
Leading Contenders
1st Favorite
Promist Jean
2.4
Predicted Odds
3-y-o Filly / 55kgJockey: T. Marquand
Pedigree: The “Golden Cross”
Sire Nadal (stamina) and dam’s sire Henny Hughes (speed) create a perfect blend for Tokyo’s 1400m, excelling at both the turf start and the long straight.
Training & Condition
Reported to be in excellent condition with a strong final gallop. Trainer is confident in her raw ability.
Concerns
Her “mental aspect remains key.” As a sensitive filly, her performance heavily depends on the jockey’s ability to manage her temperament on race day.
2nd Favorite
Estrella de Belen
3.5
Predicted Odds
4-y-o Colt / 58kgJockey: C. Lemaire
Pure Ability
Possesses the highest official rating among all contenders, indicating superior raw talent and racing ability.
Training & Condition
Achieved a rapid 4F time of 50.2s with ease in final workout. Described as “spirited,” suggesting peak physical condition and a strong fighting spirit.
Concerns
A tendency to “drift left” on the left-handed Tokyo course is a major concern. Any loss of ground could be costly and relies on the jockey’s skill to correct.
Pace Setters & Dark Horses
Gun Wolf
Odds: 13.3 | Jockey: R. Yokoyama
Primary pace setter. Strategy is “dangerous if leading.” Ability to sustain speed on the long straight is the main question.
Strength
Odds: 7.4 | Jockey: M. Iwata
First-time blinkers. Classic dirt pedigree. Aiming for a turnaround and could challenge the top two.
Gekizaru
Odds: 18.4 | Jockey: S. Kobayashi
First-time blinkers. Reaching peak form at age six. Speed-oriented sire makes him well-suited for 1400m.
Asia Mission
Odds: 29.3 | Jockey: K. Yokoyama
Previous 6th place finish shows he can compete. Temperamental inconsistency is a drawback; needs a smooth race.
Hidden Aptitude from Bloodline Bias
Storm Bird Lineage
Explosiveness
Strong aptitude for the high-speed nature of this course.
Promist JeanAsia MissionGun Wolf
A.P. Indy Lineage
Stamina
Excels in attrition races with a sustained, high pace.
StrengthUnsealDaytona Mode
Sunday Silence Lineage
Speed
A significant factor on Tokyo’s dirt course, where speed is comparable to turf.
Estrella de Belen
All Runners Evaluation Matrix
| Gate | Stall | Horse Name | Sex/Age | Weight | Jockey | Evaluation/Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 5 | Cumulonimbus | G7 | 58 | Hiroshi Uchida | Racing on consecutive weeks. Potential for improvement if he has slimmed down. |
| 3 | 6 | Tosen Saudade | G5 | 58 | Takumi Koba | Dark horse candidate. Expecting benefits from refreshment. |
| 4 | 8 | Stanley Tesoro | G4 | 58 | Akihide Sugawara | Consistent at this course. Key is recovery from previous poor performance. |
| 5 | 9 | Marble Mountain | F4 | 56 | On On Kame | Blinkers worn. Showing improvement after a race. |
| 5 | 10 | Daytona Mode | G5 | 58 | Akimasa Tsumura | Fragile temperament, tends to fade at the finish. Needs pace support. |
| 6 | 11 | Doutap | G4 | 58 | Keita Tosaki | Long layoff but possesses high ability. Caution advised with blinkers. |
| 6 | 12 | Happy London | G5 | 58 | Kazuki Kikuzawa | Excellent form in training. Could place well despite low popularity. |
| 7 | 13 | Jasly | G5 | 58 | Yuichi Taniuchi | Finished 3rd in this race last year, cannot be underestimated. |
| 7 | 14 | Ground Beat | C4 | 58 | Daiki Sasaki | First time at this distance. Resists when pushed. Aims for improvement with distance reduction. |
| 8 | 15 | Unseal | C4 | 58 | Shiu Ishibashi | Maintaining good form. Stable and could place well if pace suits. |
Race Simulation & Pace Forecast
Pace Forecast
HIGH PACE
Gun Wolf is expected to lead, but intense competition from Unseal and Strength will ensure a sustained high pace with little respite.
Key Stage: The battle into the final straight will be demanding. Front-runners will be tested. Victory will hinge on “fundamental stamina” and “absolute finishing speed.” The race likely boils down to a clash between Promist Jean, Estrella de Belen, and Strength.
Final Prediction & Top Picks
◎ MAIN PICK
Promist Jean
Superior ability, bloodline suitability, and good form. Victory is hers if she overcomes her mental challenges.
○ SECOND PICK
Estrella de Belen
Top rating and peak condition. Lemaire’s skill can mitigate track issues.
▲ THIRD PICK
Strength
Perfect fit for the course. Blinkers could trigger a major turnaround.
△ Potential Placers
- Gekizaru:Peak form, blinkers boost.
- Gun Wolf:Dangerous if left alone in front.
- Happy London:Excellent training form.
- Doutap:High ability despite layoff.
For final betting, observe Promist Jean’s demeanor in the paddock and assess track conditions on race day.
AI Generated Webpage for Shangri-La Stakes 2025 Analysis. Data provided for illustrative purposes.
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