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Queen Elizabeth II Cup 2025 Preview | Contender Analysis & Race Outlook

投稿者: ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

November 9, 2025

A thorough analysis of key JRA races, centering on the G1 Queen Elizabeth II Cup held on November 16, 2025. The focus is on the power dynamic between the maturing 4-year-old Regaleira and top 3-year-old contenders from the Shuka Sho. We’ll explore the keys to the race by considering track conditions, workout evaluations, and jockey comments for each top contender, plus introduce promising 2-year-old prospects.

Key Takeaways

  • ✓The Queen Elizabeth II Cup features a clash between Regaleira, winner of the G2 All Comers, and the 3-year-old contenders from the Shuka Sho (Erika’s Express, Paradis Reine).
  • ✓The forecast of rain (heavy track) could favor horses with proven ability on soft ground, such as Coconut Brown, who finished 2nd in the Sapporo Kinen.
  • ✓In the 2-year-old races, many promising prospects are running, including Chicco Bello in the Kigiku Sho and Satono Voyage in the Oxalis Sho.
  • ✓We break down crucial betting tips based on final workout evaluations and comments from the stables for each horse.

50th Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) Outlook

Race Analysis and Betting Points

This traditional championship race for fillies and mares is held over 2200m on the outer turf course at Kyoto. This year, the main focus is the matchup between the 4-year-old Regaleira, who showed her class by winning the G2 All Comers, and the 3-year-olds who fought hard in the G1 Shuka Sho (Erika’s Express, Paradis Reine). Furthermore, Lavanda, who won the previous Ireland Trophy (L), and Coconut Brown, with a 2nd place finish in the Sapporo Kinen, are also aiming for the top spots. With rain and a heavy track predicted for race day, the track condition will be a key factor influencing each horse’s performance.

Analysis of Key Contenders

Regaleira (4F)Coming off a win in the G2 All Comers (1st). Her ability to win despite a poor start is a testament to her strength. She received high marks in her final workout on Nov 5, suggesting her condition may be even better. The start is the biggest key, but a slight delay is recoverable over the 2200m outer course at Kyoto.Erika’s Express (3F)Finished 2nd in her last race, the Shuka Sho (G1). Jockey Yutaka Take cited her pulling during the race as the reason for her loss, so the key will be how well she settles with the extra 200m. Her Nov 5 workout was a light tune-up to manage her temperament. She has G1-level ability, but comes with a temperament risk.Paradis Reine (3F)Finished 3rd in her last race, the Shuka Sho (G1). The late kick she showed is genuine, and if the race develops in her favor, she is a definite contender. She was reported to be full of energy in her Nov 5 workout, indicating good condition.Coconut Brown (5M)Finished 2nd in her last race, the Sapporo Kinen (G2). Her record of 5 top-two finishes in 5 starts on soft turf suggests a high aptitude for heavy tracks. If the track is tough on race day, her rating should be raised even higher.Lavanda (4F)Won her last race, the Ireland Trophy (L), with a “stronger-than-the-margin-suggests victory.” She received the highest praise from her jockey, who said, “She seems capable of competing in a G1.” Her maturation should be considered genuine.Stellenbosch (4F)Suffered a major defeat in her last race, the Sapporo Kinen (G2), but race notes analyze that the soft track was the cause. If it rains and the track is heavy, there’s a risk of a repeat performance, but if the track recovers, she has a chance to bounce back.

Analysis of Key 2-Year-Old Races

[Kyoto 9R] Kigiku Sho (1-Win Class)

A small but elite field of 9. The focus is on two horses: Chicco Bello, who lost on a heavy track last time, and Thunderstruck, who showed great potential in his debut race.Chicco BelloFinished 2nd in his last race, the Hagi S (L). Jockey Yuga Kawada clearly blamed the heavy track for the loss, and a rebound is expected on a firm track. However, there is a risk if the rain and heavy track conditions persist.ThunderstruckIn his debut, jockey Christophe Lemaire praised his high potential, saying he “won on raw talent alone.” He has been through high-quality training, including working out with G1 winner Regaleira, and is reported to be steadily improving.

[Tokyo 9R] Oxalis Sho (1-Win Class)

A gathering of promising contenders on the 2-year-old dirt circuit. Satono Voyage’s performance, in particular, stands out.Satono VoyageSet a course record in his last maiden race, providing strong time-based credentials. He is also praised for his speed in training and shows signs of maturing temperamentally, making him a clear standout.Ask KentuckyThe main rival. He won his debut race convincingly, and his stable is confident, saying they are “looking forward to the class jump.” He is in perfect condition and could be competitive immediately.

[Fukushima 9R] Fukushima Nisai Stakes (OP)

The race is held over the short 1200m straight at Fukushima, a test of speed and early pace.Rouge SaudadeShe has the top pick from the paper, but caution is advised as there’s a discrepancy with the data. The reason for her last loss was her temperament, and her final workout evaluation was not favorable.LamplogueThe key will be how she leverages the stamina she showed over 1400m in her last race, now that she’s shortening to 1200m.

Analysis of Key Allowance Races

[Kyoto 10R] Amanohashidate Stakes (3-Win Class)

A middle-distance dirt handicap race where 3-year-olds clash with older horses. The momentum of the 3-year-olds moving up in class is notable.TripolitaniaWon his last race with plenty to spare and hasn’t shown his full potential yet. His training has been substantial, including workouts with G1 runners, so it’s reasonable to assume the class jump won’t be a major hurdle.Hiruno HamburgA highly talented horse praised by jockey Yutaka Take as having “considerable ability.” He posted an excellent time in his final workout, and his youthful physical development may overcome his inexperience.

[Tokyo 9R] Ginrei Stakes (3-Win Class)

A handicap race over 1400m on the Tokyo dirt course. The main comparison is between the up-and-coming Fuusetsu and the proven performer in this class, Benne.FuusetsuWon his last race with ease and is aiming for a third consecutive victory to enter the open class. He is on the rise and seems capable of handling the step up.BenneFinished 4th in his first race at this class level. He is expected to have acclimatized and a comeback is anticipated.

[Tokyo 10R] Utopia Stakes (3-Win Class)

A fillies and mares only race with a mix of 3-year-olds and older horses. Fleming Hoop is the central figure, but there are also promising newcomers.Fleming HoopHer good sense shines through, and she is consistently performing at a high level. She maintains good form in training and is a leading candidate here as well.Shonan SomedayRecovered from a disadvantage at the start to win her last race. Her excellent race sense is a highlight.MakanaHer winning time in the last race was excellent, and the performance was solid. She is improving and is expected to be competitive immediately after moving up in class.Lynx TipHer last race should be re-evaluated as the pace didn’t suit her. She is also entered in the Queen Elizabeth II Cup, but if she runs here, the competition will be easier, and her workout movements are excellent.

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