A deep dive into the 2025 Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1). We analyze the form of top contenders Regaleira, Stellenbosch, and the highly-rated Paradis Reine, using official data from final workouts and stable comments. We’ll cover course suitability, past performances, risky favorites, and dark horses to watch.
The 50th Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) will be held at Kyoto Racecourse over 2200m (outer turf). A core part of race prediction is determining if a horse is in a condition to perform at its best. In a G1 race, where every horse is finely tuned, the slightest difference in condition can dramatically alter the outcome. We’ll use the latest training data to identify horses at their peak and those with potential issues.
Among this year’s contenders, (1) Paradis Reine has received the most glowing evaluation. Her final workout brief was simple yet powerful: “in absolute top form.” The detailed analysis explains why.
While this stable isn’t known for hard workouts, this is the best she has looked physically since her return. She’s full of energy, eager to run, and simply vibrant. It’s safe to say she’s in absolute top form.
Her time (Ritto Hill: 55.4 – 39.0 – 25.0 – 12.2) isn’t flashy, but this aligns with her stable’s training philosophy. It suggests that in her third race this autumn, she has peaked naturally. With her physical appearance, energy, and forwardness all in perfect alignment, she enters the race in undeniable peak condition.
Evaluating the Oka Sho winner, (2) Stellenbosch, is challenging. Her final workout on the Ritto woodchip course earned a positive brief of “personal best time.” However, the detailed analysis contains a sentence that cannot be ignored.
Her response in the final furlong was a bit lacking, but she did mark a personal best time, so perhaps it’s excusable.
While her time (Ritto CW: 95.4 – 79.0 – 64.5 – 50.6 – 36.8 – 12.1) is fast, it’s noted that her response at the crucial moment might be dull. This “lack of response” could be directly linked to the reason for her 15th place finish in the Sapporo Kinen, which jockey Kenichi Ikezoe attributed to “nothing but her mental state.” In other words, while her physique and coat look good, suggesting physical recovery, she may not have fully recovered mentally. Her talent is undeniable, making her a high-risk, high-reward contender whose performance will depend entirely on her mood on race day.
One of the favorites, (7) Regaleira, is fully prepared. Her final workout involved a solid three-horse drill despite upcoming travel, earning high praise for her “powerful movement and flawless spirit.” Assistant trainer Ota echoed this confidence, stating, “We have no concerns about her condition heading into the race.”
Veteran (12) Lilac should not be underestimated. The workout analysis notes, “It seems her old form is finally back,” indicating a genuine return to form. This isn’t just recent good form; after her 4th place in the Ireland Trophy, jockey Yuji Ishikawa testified, “In terms of condition, this was the best I’ve ever felt her.” Maintaining or even improving on that condition, this six-year-old mare is poised for a potential upset.
| Horse Name | Workout Brief | Workout Analysis (Excerpt) |
|---|---|---|
| (1) Paradis Reine | In absolute top form | The best she has looked physically since her return. Full of energy and eagerness. It’s safe to say she’s in absolute top form. |
| (2) Stellenbosch | Personal best time | Her response in the final furlong was a bit lacking, but she did mark a personal best time. Her coat is shiny and she looks good physically. |
| (7) Regaleira | Shows good spirit | Despite upcoming travel, she had a solid three-horse drill. Her movement is powerful and her spirit is flawless. |
| (12) Lilac | Lively movement | It seems her old form is finally back. |
| (8) Vermicelle | Sharp leg action | Posted a personal best on the CW a week prior with a sharp finish. Not typically a strong workout horse, so she’s moving very well. |
Assuming all horses are in good condition, the next crucial factor is their suitability for the tricky Kyoto 2200m outer turf course. The stable comments provide frank assessments.
The horse with the most emphatic endorsement for course suitability is (16) Links Tip. Trainer Nishimura states unequivocally, “The Kyoto outer course is a perfect fit.” The reason lies in her running style. Described by her trainer as a “horse with a large stride,” her long gait is her main weapon. This perfectly explains her 8th place finish in the Shion Stakes. Jockey Tomoki Kitamura commented then, “Her large stride made cornering at the third turn difficult.” In short, her last defeat was due to the tight turns of Nakayama Racecourse. This time, she moves to the wide, sweeping Kyoto outer course, where she can fully utilize her long stride. This is a classic case where a course change could lead to a significant comeback.
For (6) Erica Express, who ran an impressive second in the Shuka Sho, a serious concern has emerged. The training analysis notes, “Her form isn’t particularly large, so the extended distance is hard to call a plus,” raising a question about her stamina. This physical trait is compounded by a mental one revealed in her last race. Jockey Yutaka Take pointed out, “She was a bit too keen during the race.” For a horse with a shorter stride that tends to pull, the step up from 2000m to 2200m is a clear negative. Judging her solely on her Shuka Sho performance would be premature.
Besides the two mentioned above, many other stables have commented on their horse’s suitability for the Kyoto outer course.
These horses can be considered to have few concerns regarding the race setting.
The most significant prep race, the Shuka Sho (Kyoto 2000m), sends us the 2nd place finisher (6) Erica Express and 3rd place (1) Paradis Reine. While Erica Express finished ahead, a closer look at the race and current conditions suggests their evaluations could be reversed.
After finishing 3rd in the Shuka Sho, jockey Yusuke Tannai for (1) Paradis Reine commented, “Due to the draw… I had to hold her back and save ground.” He added, “The gap in positioning to the top two was just too big.” In other words, the loss was due to situational factors—the draw and race flow—not a lack of ability. Now, she moves to a course her stable welcomes, and most importantly, she is in “absolute top form.” With a clear reason for her last defeat and improvements in both condition and course, she is primed for a comeback.
In contrast, for (6) Erica Express, the 2nd place finisher in the Shuka Sho, the comment “She was a bit too keen during the race” says it all. The jockey believes she “could have held on” otherwise, but that very keenness is her fundamental issue. The physical trait of a “shorter form” noted in the training analysis, combined with her mental tendency to be “keen,” both work against her over the extended 2200m distance. While she secured 2nd place on sheer ability last time, she is likely to face a distance barrier in this race.
A multi-faceted analysis of the official data reveals the following key points:
This article has thoroughly analyzed the key factors for the Queen Elizabeth II Cup 2025 based on detailed data. For our final conclusions, top picks (◎○▲), and recommended bets considering training condition, course suitability, and past performance, please follow the link below.