The 50th Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) will be held on November 16, 2025, at Kyoto Racecourse. Ahead of this decisive battle between 3-year-old fillies and older mares, this article analyzes race trends with data and provides a thorough diagnosis of the pre-race workouts for all 19 registered horses, including Regaleira and Stellenbosch. We delve deep into each horse’s condition to get to the heart of the forecast.
On November 16, 2025, the 50th Queen Elizabeth II Cup (G1) will take place at Kyoto Racecourse. This race is a true “Queen’s deciding battle,” where 3-year-old fillies, fresh from the final leg of the Fillies’ Triple Crown, the Shuka Sho, clash for the first time under the same conditions as seasoned older mares. This year, G1 winners from the 4-year-old generation like Regaleira and Stellenbosch, who lit up last year’s classics, will face off against rising 3-year-old stars like Erica Express and Paradis Reine, who fought fiercely in the Shuka Sho. The field is further bolstered by a diverse group of talented runners, including Coconut Brown, who showed strength in the Sapporo Kinen, and Lavanda, who dominated her prep race. This article analyzes the key “forecasting points” from the data.
The Kyoto Turf 2200m uses the outer loop. There is a long stretch from the start to the first corner, followed by a gentle incline up to the third corner. The critical point of the race is the downhill slope from after the third corner to the fourth. The pace quickens dramatically here, leading to a final stretch of about 400m on flat ground that demands either a burst of speed or sustained power carried from the downhill run. As it’s a B course week, the inner part of the track may be protected, but it’s generally a fair course that tests a combination of stamina and speed.
On this course, certain bloodlines have shown remarkable strength. Recent sire data for the Kyoto Turf 2200m shows Kizuna at the top with an overwhelming win rate of 14.6% and a top-two finish rate of 29.3%. Heart’s Cry follows in second with a 12.9% win rate and 19.4% top-two finish rate, and Gold Ship is third with a 14.3% win rate and 17.9% top-two finish rate. Among this year’s registered horses, Paradis Reine (by Kizuna), Safira (by Heart’s Cry), Regaleira (by Suave Richard, from the Heart’s Cry line), and Vermicelle and Fair Ehrung (both by Gold Ship) fit this profile. Horses with these pedigrees can be analyzed as having a strong advantage in course suitability.
This is a set-weight race where 3-year-olds run with 54kg and mares aged 4 and older run with 56kg. This 2kg weight difference has historically had a significant impact on race results. This year, Erica Express and Paradis Reine, who performed well with 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the Shuka Sho, represent the 3-year-olds. The core of the forecast lies in determining if they can leverage their 54kg weight to defeat formidable older rivals carrying 56kg, such as G1 winners Regaleira (4yo) and Stellenbosch (4yo), and Sapporo Kinen runner-up Coconut Brown (5yo).
Here, we provide a detailed column-style analysis and evaluation for all 19 registered horses, integrating their pre-race workout content, comments from stables and jockeys, and performance in their previous races.
Evaluation/Bloodline: Received the highest rating “◎” (Top Pick) from Mr. Masashi Muta of Keiba Book. Her sire is Suave Richard from the Heart’s Cry line, suggesting high suitability for the Kyoto outer loop.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, worked on the Miho Woodchip Course. Clocked a final furlong of 11.2s from an overall time of 96.0s. Finished level with her partner in a paired workout, with the comment “Improving with this workout.”
Previous Race Analysis (All Comers, 1st): Broke slightly slow but settled well mid-pack. Showed a powerful stretch to win. Jockey Keita Tosaki praised her finishing kick, saying, “She’s easy to ride and has a great final kick.”
Overall Analysis: A G1 winner who won her prep race convincingly and is in perfect form. Her sharp workout and the top rating from experts suggest she has very few weaknesses.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, with jockey C. Lemaire aboard, worked on the Ritto Woodchip Course. Recorded a final furlong of 12.0s. Chased Berber Compass (older, 3 wins) by 0.3s and finished 0.2s ahead. Comment: “Training smoothly.”
Previous Race Analysis (Sapporo Kinen, 15th): Traveled mid-pack on the outside but faded at the 4th corner, finishing poorly. Jockey Kenichi Ikezoe commented, “For a horse of her ability, it can only be a mental issue.”
Stable Comment: According to reports on Nov 5, the camp stated, “Her condition is not a problem.”
Overall Analysis: A G1 winner coming off a shocking defeat, her recovery is the main theme. It’s a positive sign that Lemaire rode her himself and rated her as “smooth.” If her mental state and the track conditions align, she could easily show her true ability.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, cantered up the Ritto Hill Course alone. Timed at 53.9s – 12.4s. Comment: “Maintaining good form.”
Previous Race Analysis (Shuka Sho, 2nd): Led the race but couldn’t hold on in the stretch, finishing 2nd. Jockey Yutaka Take cited her temperament as the reason for defeat, “She got a bit too keen mid-race.”
Stable Comment: Trainer Haruki Sugiyama noted her growth, “She had some weakness in her hindquarters, but that has firmed up.” Mr. Izumiya emphasized her good condition, “Staying at the training center has been great for her physically and mentally. She’s improved since her last race.”
Overall Analysis: The key is “settling.” The camp has focused on her mental state while at the training center and confirmed her composure in workouts. If she can enter the race in the “better than last time” condition the camp claims, a G1 victory is within reach.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, worked on the Ritto Woodchip Course. Put in long work, clocking a final furlong of 11.4s. Finished ahead of Tripolitania (older, 3 wins). Comment: “In good shape.”
Previous Race Analysis (Sapporo Kinen, 2nd): Despite a poor start, she made a strong late charge from the outside to secure 2nd. The analysis noted, “The difference in inside/outside draw and positioning made the difference,” suggesting her performance was better than the result.
Stable Comment: Trainer Takateru Uemura expressed confidence, “We’ve reset her, and she’s coming along nicely,” and “I have no complaints about her condition.”
Overall Analysis: As her high rating (▲) from experts suggests, she is a top-class horse. The camp considers her known tension issues “within expectations,” and her workout was perfect. She is consistent at a high level and a major contender here.
Evaluation/Bloodline: Rated “○” (Second Pick) by Keiba Book. Sired by Kizuna, who has the top win and top-two finish rates on this course.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, cantered up the Ritto Hill Course. Timed at 54.9s – 12.1s. Her sharp finish was notable, earning a high evaluation: “Full of energy.”
Previous Race Analysis (Shuka Sho, 3rd): Saved ground at the back and showed a solid stretch run to finish 3rd. The analysis stated, “The gap in positioning to the top two was significant,” implying she could have finished higher with a different trip.
Overall Analysis: With a high expert rating, the strongest bloodline for the course, and an energetic workout, all signs are positive. The 3-year-old’s weight advantage (54kg) is also a major plus. She is a top candidate for the crown.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 6, jockey Ryusei Sakai rode her on the Ritto Woodchip Course. She posted an exceptional overall time of 79.9s, with a sharp final furlong of 11.6s. Comment: “Intensified training.”
Overall Analysis: Her last race was clearly a prep run, as she was +16kg. After posting a blistering time in her workout, it’s safe to say her condition has completely turned around, as the “intensified training” comment suggests.
Evaluation/Bloodline: Sired by Gold Ship, who has a good record on this course. Jockey Shun Samejima rode her for a final furlong of 11.7s in her workout. Comment: “Improved response.”
Overall Analysis: She’s in good form, coming off a 3rd place in a G2, and has the pedigree to back it up. Her workout shows improvement, making her a dark horse.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 9, worked on the Ritto Hill Course. Cantered for a final furlong of 12.7s. Comment: “Careful work on the hill course.”
Overall Analysis: Currently on a winning streak and showing signs of maturing. Although her workout was light, the test will be whether her “sharp turn of foot” from her last race is effective on the G1 stage.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 6, worked on the Miho Woodchip Course. Clocked 66.0s – 11.7s (cantering). Comment: “Continuing good form.”
Overall Analysis: Her last race could have been better with different timing. Her workout shows she’s maintaining good form, and despite being a 6-year-old, her ability hasn’t waned.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 6, jockey Yasunari Iwata rode her on the Ritto Woodchip Course. She was pushed hard at the end for a good time of 11.4s. Comment: “Coat has a good sheen.”
Overall Analysis: She performed poorly in the Shuka Sho, but her sharp finish in this workout is noteworthy. The positive physical comment “Coat has a good sheen” suggests we should be wary of a turnaround.
Evaluation/Bloodline: Sired by Heart’s Cry, who has the 2nd best top-two finish rate on this course. Jockey Junya Nishimura rode her for a final furlong of 11.4s at a canter. Comment: “Sharp leg action.”
Overall Analysis: Her last race can be disregarded due to a bad draw and race flow. With a strong pedigree and a sharp workout, the stable remains optimistic. A comeback is highly likely.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, trainer Masahiro Takeuchi rode her himself on the Miho Woodchip Course. Pushed hard for a final furlong of 11.7s. Comment: “Good paired workout, finished level.”
Overall Analysis: Her last performance was respectable considering the weight she carried. The stable asserts, “Her movement has gone up a level,” suggesting she may have fully matured in her 5-year-old autumn.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, jockey Shun Hamanaka rode her on the Ritto Woodchip Course. Driven hard, she recorded a stunning final furlong of 11.1s. Comment: “Full of vigor.”
Overall Analysis: Her last race was clearly a prep run. The blistering workout time shows the results, and as the “Full of vigor” comment suggests, her condition is rapidly improving.
Bloodline: Sired by Gold Ship, who has a good record on this course. Her workout on the Miho Woodchip Course had a final furlong of 11.8s. Comment: “Ambitious training.”
Overall Analysis: She is steadily improving, finishing 4th in a G2 last time out. The camp is working on her tendency to be keen, and this “ambitious training” could lead to a surprise performance.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 6, jockey Akihide Tsumura rode her on the Miho Woodchip Course, clocking a final furlong of 11.7s. Comment: “Showing improvement after a prep race.”
Overall Analysis: Her potential is top-class for her generation, but her last race was an inexplicable loss. As the workout comment indicates, improvement from her last run is the key.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, worked on the Miho Woodchip Course. Posted a very fast overall time of 81.4s with a final furlong of 11.3s. Comment: “Good stretch in the straight.”
Overall Analysis: Despite being a 6-year-old, the camp unanimously says she’s in the “best condition ever.” Her workout was flawless, and a major upset is expected on a stage the stable calls her “favorite.”
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 6, worked alone on the Ritto Woodchip Course at a canter. Posted a phenomenal overall time of 82.4s with a final furlong of 11.1s. Comment: “Maintaining good form.”
Overall Analysis: Her dominant win last time out signaled her maturation. Her jockey declared she “can compete at the G1 level,” and a final furlong of 11.1s at a canter confirms she is in peak condition.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 6, she was driven hard on the Ritto Woodchip Course but finished behind her lower-class work partner. Comment: “Lagged behind in paired workout.”
Overall Analysis: Based on her pre-race workout, there are few positive factors to highlight for a G1 race at this time.
Pre-Race Workout: On Nov 5, jockey C. Demuro rode her on the Ritto Woodchip Course. She posted a blistering time with an overall 80.5s and a final furlong of 11.2s. Comment: “Improving with this workout.”
Overall Analysis: Her last race was not a true measure of her ability, as the course and race flow were completely unsuitable. Her long stride is perfect for the Kyoto outer loop. With a fast workout time, she is rated as the horse with the highest potential for a dramatic turnaround.
After analyzing the pre-race workouts and various data, the notable horses can be classified into several categories.
In the final analysis, based on Keiba Book ratings and bloodline data, Regaleira and Paradis Reine emerge as the two main contenders. However, the movements in their pre-race workouts and comments from their camps suggest that Lavanda and Lilac are in the best possible condition. And Lynx Tip, with clear reasons for her last defeat and the highest potential for a dramatic turnaround due to the course change, is recommended as an extremely attractive prospect in this analysis.