The 2025 Okutama Stakes (Tokyo, 1400m Turf) is a wide-open contest featuring talented horses aiming to break into the open class. This article provides a thorough analysis of the challenges facing favorite Myner Ticket, the condition of the streaking Sliding Road, and the reliability of veterans like Yuhannus. Using only official data from training reports and stable comments, we break down the key points for your predictions and uncover valuable dark horses.
Key Takeaways
- Top 4 Favorites Have Pros & Cons: Myner Ticket attempts to overcome issues with new equipment, while Sliding Road faces slight concerns about her condition.
- Veteran Stability: Our top pick Yuhannus shows signs of peaking, but his finishing kick is a concern. Kita San Damour, with jockey C. Lemaire, is expected to improve.
- Value in Dark Horses: Several mid-tier horses are worth watching, including the 3-year-old Fortem, described as “better than his last race,” and Satono Kirari, who had an unlucky run last time out.
- Data-Driven Analysis: We decipher the condition and competitive spirit of each horse using comprehensive training data, stable comments, and jockey interviews.
Top Contenders: Head-to-Head Data Comparison
First, let’s compare the core data for the top favorites and horses attracting expert attention. Understanding each horse’s situation, condition, and the stable’s intentions is the first step in making your predictions.
| Horse Name | Predicted Odds | Expert Picks | Training Notes | Key Stable Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Myner Ticket | 3.8 (1st Fav) | ◎, ○, ◎, ▲ | Sharp movements | Wearing a shadow roll to correct his habit of veering off. |
| Sliding Road | 4.2 (2nd Fav) | △, ○ | Appears calm | Not moving as well as in her last two wins, but 1400m is good. |
| Kita San Damour | 5.0 (3rd Fav) | △, ▲, ○ | Steady and on track | Ran well through a tight spot last race. Tougher field but… |
| (Int’l) Yuhannus | 5.9 (4th Fav) | ▲, ▲, ◎ | Training smoothly | Finally running to his potential. Same jockey is a plus. |
| Omega Captain | 13.8 (5th Fav) | ○, △ | Improving with this workout | Pay attention to his weight. Ideal is around 470kg. |
| Fortem | 14.6 (6th Fav) | ◎, △ | Good finishing kick | Showed he can compete in this class. Has experience at Tokyo 1400m. |
| Satono Kirari | 26.1 (10th Fav) | △ | Good response | Showing signs of recovery. Blocked in the stretch last race. |
Source: Official Race Card, Training Data, Stable Comments
Point ①: A Deep Dive into the Top 4 Favorites’ Reliability
The top four horses, all with single-digit predicted odds, each have clear “reasons to bet” and “reasons for concern.” Let’s delve deeper into their data to assess their reliability.
Myner Ticket: A “Decisive Equipment Change” to Overcome His Biggest Flaw
Myner Ticket, the favorite at 3.8 odds and a top pick for multiple experts, presents a mix of “reliability and risk.” His reliability stems from a dominant performance in his last race, the Sannenzaka S (2nd), and his excellent condition, described as “sharp movements” in his final workout. However, his critical flaw, as pointed out by his jockey, is a tendency to “drift inwards after taking the lead.” This time, the stable has announced a countermeasure: “he will wear a shadow roll.” If this “decisive equipment change” is successful, he has the potential to be much better than this class.
Sliding Road: A “Discord” Between Talent and Condition
The 3-year-old filly Sliding Road enters on a two-race winning streak. With top jockey D. Lane aboard and a light weight of 55kg, she’s an attractive prospect. This weight advantage could be significant in a close finish. However, trainer Fukunaga commented, “she’s not moving as well as she did in her last two wins,” suggesting she may not be at her peak. While her improved mental maturity has made her “calmer,” there seems to be a “discord” between her mental and physical condition. The question is whether to bet on her talent or heed the stable’s cautious remarks.
(Int’l) Yuhannus: The “Top Pick’s” Reliability vs. Last Race’s “Weak Finish”
As a leading older horse, Yuhannus is the “top pick” of the racing paper. Trainer Okubo stated, “he’s finally running to his potential” after his last race, the Hakushu S (2nd), indicating he’s coming into form. However, that race also exposed a “weakness” as he was overtaken at the finish line. The stable is hopeful for improvement in his second ride with jockey Kazuo Yokoyama, noting “the continued partnership is a plus,” and his training has been smooth. For those prioritizing consistency over explosive power, he is a highly reliable choice for the main bet.
Kita San Damour: Facing the “Class Jump Wall” with Jockey Lemaire
Kita San Damour teams up with jockey C. Lemaire for the first time. His debut in this class, the Nagaokakyo S (3rd), was impressive despite coming off a layoff, with the jockey noting “he pushed through a narrow gap strongly.” The previous jockey’s comment, “he’ll be even better next time,” suggests improvement is expected in his second race back. Stable comments also indicate good condition, and the “jockey upgrade” is a major plus. He stands as one of the strongest contenders among the older horses.
Point ②: Uncovering “Value Dark Horses” from Training & Comments
While the top four favorites are closely matched, a closer look at the data reveals several attractive “value dark horses” in the middle tier. Here are three to watch.
Fortem: Is the 3-Year-Old’s “Upward Trend” for Real?
Despite predicted odds of 14.6, the 3-year-old Fortem is rated as a “◎” top pick by the CPU forecast. He’s been praised in training analysis as “full of spirit with a quick turnover. Better than his last race,” showing a clear upward trend. The stable is also confident, stating, “his last race proved he belongs in the 3-win class.” As a 3-year-old acclimatizing to the class and on a sharp improvement curve, he has the potential to upset the favorites.
Satono Kirari: Bouncing Back from an “Incomplete Burn” Last Race
Though his popularity has dropped, Satono Kirari has clear reasons for a potential comeback. His last race was an unlucky one where he had plenty left in the tank, as the jockey commented, “it was a shame we couldn’t find a clear path in the stretch.” The stable feels he’s breaking out of his slump, noting “his run showed signs of recovery,” and his training has been positive with “good response” and “plenty of power.” It would be premature to dismiss him based on his last finish alone.
Judo: In Good Form, but the “Gate” is the Biggest Hurdle
Judo is moving up in class after a brilliant closing victory in his last race. Trainer Hisashi Tezuka is confident, stating, “his condition is even better than last time.” However, this horse has a major issue: the “gate.” His last win was aided by a good start, and the stable admits he “has trouble at the gate.” He’s a high-risk, high-reward dark horse dependent on the start, but if he breaks evenly, he’s in good enough shape to compete at this level.
Point ③: Quick Data Analysis for All Runners
Here are key data points extracted from the training notes and stable comments for all runners to aid your betting decisions.
- Emanuele: The stable is confident in his course suitability, stating, “The long, left-handed stretch at Tokyo suits him.” Expect improvement with the change of venue.
- Omega Captain: A clear signal from the stable: “Pay attention to his weight,” and “Ideally, he should run around 470kg.” His weight on race day is key.
- Juno: Running on consecutive weeks. “Racing is easier for her at 1400 meters,” so expect a change with the longer distance.
- Gardaia: The key is bouncing back from a poor last race. The stable is hoping for a change, saying, “It would be nice if the shorter distance brings out something new.”
- Trapeziste: Training analysis suggests he may be an over-hyped favorite, with comments like “discount due to layoff” and “still looks a bit heavy-legged.”
- Lateral Thinking: Despite a win last time, the stable is level-headed: “He was helped by the pace and track conditions.” His true ability will be tested in a fast race at Tokyo.
- Elise Dia: Training data is not promising, noting she “stumbles when pushed.” A tough race is expected on a fast track.
- Awesome Stroke: “Settling is key,” says the stable. Everything depends on how relaxed he can run during the race.
- Satono Great: Returning from hurdle racing, but his training has been panned as “ordinary” and “lacking spirit,” offering little to recommend him.
- Win Lair: The stable’s comments are pessimistic (“half-believing, half-doubting”), and training data notes “a bit stiff, perhaps from fatigue,” raising concerns about her condition.
- Koto: The stable feels he’s improving (“He’s better after his last race”), so a straightforward step forward can be expected.
Conclusion: Final Picks and Betting Slip for Okutama S. 2025
In this article, we analyzed the key betting points for the Okutama Stakes based on official data. We examined multiple factors, including the intent behind Myner Ticket’s equipment change, Sliding Road’s fitness, Yuhannus’s reliability, and the rising form of dark horses like Fortem and Satono Kirari.
Our final conclusions and specific betting recommendations, based on this detailed data analysis, are available at the link below.
See Final Picks and Betting Slip Here
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