November 11, 2025
For the Ohi Racecourse events on November 11, 2025, this report thoroughly explains high-value ‘bargain horses’ by integrating AI predictions with expert qualitative analysis. We rigorously evaluate each horse’s potential based on AI’s hit rate and expected return, along with training reports and stable comments. From highly reliable ‘Absolute Core’ picks to ‘Value Core’ picks with appealing odds, we reveal the reasons behind our selection of 5 top recommended horses.
- Key Points of This Article
- Introduction: Prediction Approach via AI and Expert Analysis
- Analysis of Today’s Recommended Horses’ Characteristics
- Recommended Horses AI Evaluation Summary
- Ohi Race 1 (3YO Thoroughbreds 1600m) Analysis
- Ohi Race 3 (2YO Thoroughbred Newcomers 1600m) Analysis
- Ohi Race 4 (2YO Thoroughbred Newcomers 1400m) Analysis
- Ohi Race 9 (Ganbare! Basanchi Hidaka Sho 1200m) Analysis
- Ohi Race 11 (Topaz Sho 1400m) Analysis
Key Points of This Article
- 03R Eight That: An ‘Absolute Core’ pick, achieving 1st place in all AI evaluation categories, balancing reliability with betting value.
- 04R Stradivarius: Similar to Eight That, a ‘Reliability Core’ pick with outstanding ability, fully ranked 1st by AI.
- 01R Miunger: A ‘Value Core’ pick with excellent odds appeal, ranking 1st in AI’s expected return.
- 09R Nine Esquire: A ‘Data-Complemented Core’ pick whose impressive training performance dispels concerns about returning from a break.
- 11R Fujiyujin: A ‘High-Value Core’ pick – a horse with 7 graded race wins, competing in its second start after a layoff.
Introduction: Prediction Approach via AI and Expert Analysis
This report aims to identify high-value ‘bargain horses’ for the South Kanto horse racing (Ohi Racecourse) held on November 11, 2025, based on objective data analysis. The analysis approach consists of two main pillars.
First, a meticulous examination of quantitative prediction models by AI (Artificial Intelligence). Here, each horse’s expected value is rigorously assessed based on the provided dataset of AI prediction hit rates (win rate, place rate, show rate) and AI predicted expected returns (win, trifecta total, overall).
Second, the analysis of qualitative information by experts. This includes analyzing ‘training data’ indicating each horse’s final adjustment state, ‘stable comments’ reflecting the team’s intentions, and ‘key data’ critical to the race. This report conducts analysis solely within the provided dataset, presenting analytical conclusions that exclude speculation or inferences not based on the provided materials.
Analysis of Today’s Recommended Horses’ Characteristics
Today’s five recommended horses are categorized into distinct patterns based on their ‘value bet’ characteristics.
- Pattern A: Quantitative Absolute Core (Race 3, Race 4)
Horses where AI predictions dominate all major categories (win rate, show rate, overall expected return) with 1st place, achieving both overwhelming reliability and betting value. 03R Eight That and 04R Stradivarius fall into this category. - Pattern B: Quantitative Value Core (Race 1)
Horses not ranked 1st in AI predicted win rate, but ranked 1st in AI predicted expected return (ROI), judged to have the highest value in terms of odds appeal. 01R Miunger falls into this category. - Pattern C: Qualitative (Data-Complemented) Core (Race 9, Race 11)
Horses where AI prediction data is outside the scope of provided materials, but qualitative information such as training content, stable comments, and expert key data strongly supports their ‘value bet’ nature. 09R Nine Esquire and 11R Fujiyujin fall into this category.
This classification indicates that today’s predictions are not merely ‘win predictions’ but are based on a consistent investment theme: ‘Bargain Horses = Value Bets’.
Recommended Horses AI Evaluation Summary
| Race (R) | Horse Name (◎) | Estimated Win Rate | Estimated Odds | AI Predicted Win Rate | AI Win Rate Rank | AI Overall Expected Return | AI Expected Return Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohi01R | 10 Miunger | 22% | 264% | 24.7% | 2nd | 230 | 1st |
| Ohi03R | 7 Eight That | 36% | 212% | 56.0% | 1st | 200 | 1st |
| Ohi04R | 5 Stradivarius | 33% | 253% | 50.7% | 1st | 188 | 1st |
| Ohi09R | 12 Nine Esquire | 33% | 255% | (Out of Data Scope) | (Out of Data Scope) | (Out of Data Scope) | (Out of Data Scope) |
| Ohi11R | 11 Fujiyujin | 10% | 522% | (Out of Data Scope) | (Out of Data Scope) | (Out of Data Scope) | (Out of Data Scope) |
Ohi Race 1 (3YO Thoroughbreds 1600m) Analysis
Race Prediction Key Points
AI prediction analysis for this race clearly indicates two strong contenders. #5 Satono Beats (AI win rate 41.7%, 1st) and #10 Miunger (AI win rate 24.7%, 2nd), significantly outdistancing the rest of the field. However, from the perspective of betting value (ROI), this evaluation is reversed. Satono Beats’ AI overall expected return is “168” (2nd), whereas Miunger records an overwhelming “230” (1st). In terms of win bet expected return, Miunger also ranks 1st with “115”. Quantitatively, this race is analyzed as a direct contest between “the horse with the highest probability of winning” (Satono Beats) and “the horse with the most investment appeal” (Miunger). Our ‘bargain horse’ for this race is Miunger.
Featured Horse Column: 10 Miunger (◎)
AI Evaluation: The strongest basis for recommending this horse lies in its exceptional investment value. In AI predicted expected return, this horse received a decisive 1st place in all categories: “Win” (115), “Trifecta Total” (115), and “Overall” (230). This implies that the AI model assesses “this horse’s market valuation (estimated odds) as unfairly low relative to its actual ability (AI win rate).”
Qualitative Evaluation: There is a clear reason for the “gap between odds and ability” calculated by AI. Stable comments explicitly point to a cause for the previous race’s defeat: “He couldn’t settle in the last race.” The stable team highly rates his potential, stating, “If he runs smoothly, he can perform well.” Regarding this temperament issue, his final workout was adjusted “under jockey’s guidance,” receiving a brief comment of “finished together with plenty of room,” suggesting that he successfully resolved the issue of being too tense from the previous race and is now running more relaxed.
Overall Analysis: The high expected return calculated by AI indicates that this horse’s “potential” has been underestimated by the market due to “temperament issues in previous races.” Based on stable comments and training content, the primary issue of “settling” from the last race is highly likely to be improved this time. Therefore, we designate this horse as the core pick, an even better ‘bargain horse’ than Satono Beats (1st in win rate).
Ohi Race 3 (2YO Thoroughbred Newcomers 1600m) Analysis
Race Prediction Key Points
This race should be evaluated as an “absolute core” in today’s quantitative analysis. Despite being a 2-year-old newcomer race, #7 Eight That recorded astounding figures in AI predictions. Its AI predicted win rate reached 56.0%, place rate 75.0%, and show rate 87.3%, all overwhelmingly 1st place. The win rate difference from the 2nd place Tatsuno Warrior (AI win rate 17.9%) is more than threefold, indicating exceptional reliability. Furthermore, the AI overall expected return also recorded “200” for 1st place. The estimated odds of 2.12, based on AI evaluation, are extremely ‘good value’, combining both reliability and appeal.
Featured Horse Column: 7 Eight That (◎)
AI Evaluation: As mentioned above, this horse achieved “complete 1st place” in all six AI prediction categories (win rate, place rate, show rate, win bet return, trifecta total return, overall evaluation). Quantitatively, it is an undeniable core horse.
Qualitative Evaluation: AI’s absolute evaluation is perfectly supported by qualitative information. Stable comments indicate the highest praise from the stable and top jockey: “Among our stable’s 2-year-olds this year that jockey Yano has ridden, this horse received the highest evaluation.” Expert key data also emphasizes growth after the ability test, stating, “After re-adjustment at the farm, its movement became more flexible, and its condition improved,” confirming further progress. Training content is also “thorough” and impeccable.
Overall Analysis: This horse is a rare case where AI’s “absolute quantitative evaluation” and the “highest qualitative evaluation” from the stable and jockey perfectly align. Its pedigree (dam’s sister is Oka Sho winner Let’s Go Donki) also reinforces this high potential. From the provided data, no weaknesses for this horse in this race are discernible, leading to the conclusion that it is an unshakable core horse.
Ohi Race 4 (2YO Thoroughbred Newcomers 1400m) Analysis
Race Prediction Key Points
Following Race 3, this newcomer race also sees AI predictions recommending an absolute core horse. #5 Stradivarius ranks 1st with an AI predicted win rate of 50.7%. This figure is more than double that of 2nd place Ascot Miyagi (AI win rate 23.5%), indicating that the AI model evaluates this horse’s ability as outstanding. The AI overall expected return is also “188” for 1st place, and a win bet at estimated odds of 2.53 is judged to have high investment value based on AI analysis.
Featured Horse Column: 5 Stradivarius (◎)
AI Evaluation: Similar to Eight That in Race 3, this horse achieved “complete 1st place” in all six AI prediction categories. AI is strongly confident in this horse’s debut victory.
Qualitative Evaluation: The key to evaluating this horse is “clear improvement from the ability test.” According to expert key data, while showing a dull reaction in the ability test, the subsequent training process and final workout led to the conclusion of “excellent finish,” which perfectly aligns. The trajectory of clear improvement in ability test issues through training serves as a very strong recommendation for a newcomer race.
Overall Analysis: We analyze that the overwhelming potential indicated by AI predictions is now fully prepared to be demonstrated in the actual race, thanks to clear “improvement” from the ability test. Both AI’s quantitative evaluation and the qualitative evaluations from training and experts agree on “excellent condition,” making this horse a core pick with reliability second only to Eight That in Race 3.
Ohi Race 9 (Ganbare! Basanchi Hidaka Sho 1200m) Analysis
Race Prediction Key Points
This race is outside the scope of AI prediction analysis, and expert key data is also missing. Therefore, the analysis is conducted based on limited information: “estimated win rate,” “training data,” and “stable comments.” The core of the evaluation is to determine from qualitative information whether the recommended horse, #12 Nine Esquire, is in perfect condition after “returning from a break.”
Featured Horse Column: 12 Nine Esquire (◎)
Qualitative Evaluation: In the absence of AI predictions, the intentions of the stable and objective training results become more crucial. Stable comments indicate a clear competitive spirit: “He’s returning from a break, but his adjustments are smooth,” and “We want to win with jockey Konno.” Supporting this, in his final workout, he finished 0.6 seconds (approximately 3-4 lengths) ahead of a C2 class horse. This is not just satisfactory for a horse returning from a break but is a strong indication that he is prepared to perform at a high level.
Overall Analysis: The most reliable evidence is the stable’s clear intention to “win” and the objective performance of “0.6 seconds ahead” in training. The fact of “returning from a break” offers appealing odds, but the training content completely dispels any concerns. Based on the quality of qualitative information, we recommend this horse.
Ohi Race 11 (Topaz Sho 1400m) Analysis
Race Prediction Key Points
This race most perfectly symbolizes today’s theme of “bargain horses.” While #11 Fujiyujin’s estimated win rate is a low 10%, its estimated odds are set at 5.22, making it a typical high-value recommendation. Since this race is also outside the scope of AI prediction data, the analysis focuses on finding the basis for these appealing odds through qualitative information.
Featured Horse Column: 11 Fujiyujin (◎)
Qualitative Evaluation: The evaluation of this horse is summarized in the expert’s key data. Its overwhelming record of “7 wins in regional graded races” signifies that it is still the top-ability horse in this class. The expert unequivocally states, “His talent is not inferior even in this field.” Regarding potential concerns about his condition, it is clearly noted that “his condition is steadily improving after being sharpened up in his first start since transfer,” which aligns with stable comments and training data indicating “improvement.”
Overall Analysis: Fujiyujin is a “super talented horse” with a record of “7 graded race wins.” Due to the result of his first start since transfer, his talent might be overlooked by the market. However, experts, stable, and training data all perfectly agree on “improving and smooth condition.” Therefore, the evaluation of 10% estimated win rate / 5.22 estimated odds is concluded to be an excellent value bet recommendation, capturing the strongest buying factor: “a top-performing talented horse showing definite improvement in condition for its second start after a layoff.”
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