金沢競馬場の熱戦、兼六園雪吊り…
Pedigree, Training & AI Data Analysis
November 24, 2025
A thorough analysis of the 2-year-old maiden races (6R & 7R) at Tokyo Racecourse on November 24, 2025. This report provides a multi-faceted breakdown of these crucial races—key indicators for the Classic season—by analyzing pedigree, training, and AI prediction data to visualize the potential of top contenders and present a detailed strategy for maximizing win rates and returns.
As the 2025 autumn season at Tokyo Racecourse reaches its climax, the maiden races on the sixth day of the fifth meeting hold significant importance in forecasting next year’s Classic contenders. Maiden races at this time of year often feature high-level competition, as they attract well-bred horses whose debuts were delayed for careful development, as well as talented horses that have physically matured during the autumn growth period. The precision of factor analysis becomes the key to victory, especially on the Tokyo turf, where subtle but undeniable factors like the wear on the inner part of the track (due to the C-course configuration) and the condition of the grass from falling temperatures can influence race outcomes.
This report focuses on two races on Sunday, November 24, 2025: Tokyo Race 6 (2-Year-Old Maiden, Fillies Only, 1600m Turf) and Tokyo Race 7 (2-Year-Old Maiden, 1400m Turf). We will provide a detailed strategy to maximize both win rates and returns through a multi-faceted analysis of each horse’s pedigree, training regimen, stable comments, and the latest AI prediction data.
The 1600m turf course at Tokyo Racecourse is known as one of the fairest stages in Japanese horse racing, where a horse’s true ability is often reflected. The race starts from the 2-corner pocket deep in the backstretch, with a long run of about 540m to the wide, sweeping third corner. This long initial stretch mitigates intense positioning battles right after the start, allowing horses to settle into their own pace and reducing the extreme advantages or disadvantages of gate positions.
| Item | Data & Features | Trends & Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Starting Point | Backstretch (2-corner pocket) | Approx. 540m to 3rd corner; early pace is rarely intense. |
| Course Layout | One-turn, left-handed | Wide, sweeping turns. Raw speed is valued over agility. |
| Homestretch Length | 525.9m | One of the longest in Japan, often leading to late-stretch duels. |
| Elevation Change | Approx. 2m uphill slope in the stretch | Requires not just a burst of speed, but also power and stamina. |
| Advantaged Running Style | Closer/Stalker | Maiden races often feature a slow pace, making closing speed crucial. |
| Bloodline Trends | Sunday Silence lineage | Progeny of Deep Impact, Heart’s Cry, Epiphaneia perform well. |
The course’s defining features are its 525.9m long homestretch and the steep 2m uphill climb midway through it. This makes it difficult for front-runners to hold on, and most races are decided by a burst of closing speed. In maiden races, the pace is often slow, frequently resulting in a contest of pure late-kick ability. Therefore, the most critical task in forecasting is to determine which horses possess a powerful finishing kick, based on their pedigree and training.
This race features many promising horses with high expectations, including those with excellent pedigrees and impressive training performances, promising a very high-level contest.
Pedigree: A Blue-Blooded Heir to a Famous Mare
Sired by Saturnalia out of Fermion (by Agnes Tachyon). Her maternal line traces back to Wind in Her Hair, the dam of Deep Impact, making her exceptionally well-bred. She is expected to be suited for distances from a mile to 2000m, likely inheriting her sire’s turn of foot and her dam’s stamina.
Training Analysis: Primed for a Top Performance
On November 13, she clocked an impressive 65.6-50.7-36.2-11.4 on the Miho wood chip course, outperforming a 2-win class older horse. She showed sharp responses on the training track during the final week, with trainer Morita commenting, “She has a great turn of foot and high potential.” She is ready to perform at her best from her debut.
AI Evaluation & Overall Judgment
AI predictions have her as the 2.0 favorite, with win and place probabilities far exceeding her rivals. With no apparent weaknesses in pedigree, training, or jockey (C. Lemaire), she is the reliable centerpiece of this race.
Pedigree: A Fusion of World-Class Bloodlines
Sired by Admire Mars out of Gold Essence (by King Kamehameha). Her granddam is Manfath, the celebrated broodmare who produced Japanese Derby winner King Kamehameha. This is an attractive combination of her sire’s speed and her dam’s stamina.
Training Analysis: Impressive Time at Ritto CW
She recorded a time of 82.7-67.2-52.1-37.2-11.8 on the Ritto CW course on November 12. Having completed demanding workouts, she finished her final gallop with a sharp 11.5-second final furlong, indicating above-average talent.
AI Evaluation & Overall Judgment
AI odds place her as the second favorite at 4.1. With C. Demuro, currently riding on a short-term license, in the saddle, she is a strong contender to challenge Fermi Arc.
Concert Piano (Filly, 2 y.o., Miho – Nakadate Stable, Jockey: K. Matsuyama)
Her sire, Siskin, was a precocious and speedy stallion who won the Irish 2000 Guineas. In her final workout, she clocked a final furlong of 11.7 seconds on the Miho wood chip course under a light hold, showing excellent condition. Trainer Nakadate is confident, stating, “She has great concentration and I’m excited for her debut.” AI odds of 7.4 make her the third favorite, with the potential to challenge the top two.
Creanoa (Filly, 2 y.o., Miho – Kubota Stable, Jockey: K. Tosaki)
Sired by Admire Mars, with a dam by Lord Kanaloa. Her granddam is Liliside, the dam of four-time G1 winner Lys Gracieux, giving her a world-class pedigree. In training, she matched strides with a 1-win class older horse on the Miho polytrack, with an assistant trainer noting her “springy and light action.” With AI odds of 8.0, she is among the top contenders.
Evans Bay (Filly, 2 y.o., Miho – Miyata Stable, Jockey: T. Marquand)
As a daughter of Isla Bonita, she is expected to suit the Tokyo course. She has shown she can hold her own against 1-win class older horses in training, and her AI odds of 8.9 offer good value.
Fancy Shape (Filly, 2 y.o., Miho – Yano Stable, Jockey: M. Iwata)
Sired by Logotype, with Victoire Pisa in her maternal line, she has plenty of aptitude for the mile. Her AI odds of 15.8 may be an underestimation, making her an intriguing long shot.
The key factor is the overwhelming presence of Fermi Arc. Her top-class pedigree, training, and jockey make her a solid contender for the win. The race for second place is more open, but Grasberg stands out with her strong training performance. The race is expected to be run at a slow pace, favoring horses with a strong finishing kick.
Conclusion
The top pick is Fermi Arc. The main rival is Grasberg. A strong contender is Concert Piano. Also consider Creanoa, Evans Bay, and Fancy Shape for exotic bets.
Recommended Bets
Unlike the mile, the Tokyo 1400m turf course has a shorter run of about 350m from the start to the first corner, leading to more intense positioning battles. As a result, outside gates can be a disadvantage due to the extra ground covered, while inside to middle gates tend to be more favorable.
| Item | Data & Features | Trends & Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Starting Point | Entrance to backstretch | Short 350m run to 3rd corner; positioning is key. |
| Course Layout | One-turn, left-handed | Gentle uphill after the start, then downhill. |
| Gate Position Bias | Inside favorable, outside unfavorable | Outside gates risk losing ground and poor positioning. |
| Homestretch Length | 525.9m | Long stretch like the mile, with the final uphill climb. |
| Advantaged Running Style | Pacer/Stalker | Requires both speed to secure a good position and stamina for the stretch. |
| Bloodline Trends | Sprinter/Miler types | Speed-oriented lines like Fappiano and Danzig, plus Sunday Silence. |
The 1400m distance demands a blend of sprinter-like speed and miler stamina, making composure and a sharp turn of foot the keys to victory.
This race features several highly-touted contenders and horses with impressive training performances, promising an exciting contest.
Pedigree: A Masterpiece by a 5-time European G1 Winner
Sired by St Mark’s Basilica, a five-time European G1 winner. Her dam is also an Irish stakes winner, giving her a world-class pedigree. Her potential is immense.
Training Analysis: A Breathtaking Performance
In her final workout on the Ritto CW course on November 19, she displayed an extraordinary turn of foot, clocking the final furlong in 11.1 seconds—a time rarely seen from a 2-year-old. She easily outpaced a 1-win class older horse, with an assistant trainer praising her “forward-going attitude and great speed.”
AI Evaluation & Overall Judgment
AI odds have her as the overwhelming 1.8 favorite. With a perfect combination of pedigree, training, stable, and jockey, she has no apparent weaknesses. She is the undisputed top pick.
Celeste Regalo (Filly, 2 y.o., Miho – Koga Stable, Jockey: T. Marquand)
Her dam, Dea Regalo, won the Kyoto Himba Stakes. Sired by Epiphaneia, she is a type that combines speed and a sharp kick. In training, she worked on even terms with a 3-win class older horse, showing she can compete with higher-class rivals. As the second favorite with AI odds of 3.5, she is the top challenger.
Seasonal Words (Filly, 2 y.o., Miho – Hatakeyama Stable, Jockey: D. Sasaki)
Sired by Poetic Flare (English 2000 Guineas winner), with a granddam who was a G1 winner in the UK and Canada. She has shown sharp movement in training and, with AI odds of 8.1, is a strong candidate to finish in the money.
Cafe Lover (Filly, 2 y.o., Miho – Wada Stable, Jockey: Poucha)
Hailing from the super-elite family of the great mare Gentildonna (her granddam). Sired by Maurice, she combines power and speed, and the tough conditions of Tokyo’s 1400m should suit her. Her AI odds are 8.4.
Star Plain (Colt, 2 y.o., Ritto – Oguri Stable, Jockey: K. Matsuyama)
His dam was a sprinter who won the CBC Sho. Sired by Maurice, he possesses high speed, and his AI odds of 11.5 make him an attractive bet.
King’s Message (Colt, 2 y.o., Miho – Ozeki Stable, Jockey: A. Sugawara)
Sired by Danon Kingly, winner of the Yasuda Kinen. His speed-oriented pedigree is complemented by above-average training performances. Despite being a long shot at 17.9, his bloodline holds significant appeal.
In this race, Parent’s Gift appears to be a cut above the rest. Her world-class pedigree, spectacular training, and the booking of jockey Yuga Kawada provide a massive advantage in a maiden race. The main challenger is Celeste Regalo, with a competitive field vying for third.
Conclusion
Parent’s Gift is the undeniable top pick. The main rival is Celeste Regalo. From there, consider Seasonal Words, Cafe Lover, Star Plain, and King’s Message.
Recommended Bets
※ The predictions in this report do not guarantee winnings. Please wager responsibly.