November 23, 2025
- Summary of Key Points
- Detailed Horse Analysis
- 1. Tokyo Race 1: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1300m) – Cobra Twist
- 2. Tokyo Race 2: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1800m) – Belle Saint Laurent
- 3. Tokyo Race 7: 3-Year-Olds & Up Allowance (Dirt 2100m) – D’Supremacy
- 4. Tokyo Race 8: 3-Year-Olds & Up Allowance (Dirt 1600m) – Manno Status
- 5. Tokyo Race 10: Akiiro Stakes (3-Year-Olds & Up Allowance, 3 Win Class, Turf 1600m) – Fukuno Blue Lake
- 6. Kyoto Race 11: Mile Championship (G1, Turf 1600m) – Gaia Force
- ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)
Summary of Key Points
- Underdogs with Potential: Cobra Twist and D’Supremacy are highlighted as underdogs whose past defeats may mask potential for sudden performance improvements due to changing conditions.
- Improved Performance: Belle Saint Laurent and Fukuno Blue Lake are expected to enhance their performance due to better training and strategic adjustments.
- High-Return Candidate: Manno Status is identified as a high-return prospect, mitigating the risk of a long layoff with the application of blinkers and pedigree-derived stamina.
- Strong Contender: Gaia Force is positioned as a strong contender for a G1 victory, noted for its peak condition and “lean and efficient physique.”
Detailed Horse Analysis
1. Tokyo Race 1: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Dirt 1300m) – Cobra Twist
Details
Post Position: 14
Favorite (Anticipated): 5th
Projected Expected Value: 138%
Stable: Miho・Tatsuhiko Ishiguri
Jockey: Kazuki Kikuzawa
Analysis
Pedigree: Sire Happy Sprint (regional racing hero) imparts mental toughness and drive, beneficial for stamina-demanding Tokyo dirt races. Dam’s sire Pyro provides explosive speed for short-distance dirt races. This combination is ideal for Tokyo Dirt 1300m.
Last Race & Stable Comment: The comment “ran wide last time” suggests the previous defeat was due to a physical disadvantage in course management rather than a lack of ability, indicating overlooked “hidden potential.”
Course Suitability & Race Development: Post position 14 (gate 8) is not necessarily a disadvantage on Tokyo Dirt 1300m, allowing the horse to run on turf longer at the start and reduce the risk of being covered. If the jockey minimizes distance loss, a horse that dislikes being covered can run at its own rhythm. Pyro’s explosive late kick could lead to a complete turnaround.
2. Tokyo Race 2: 2-Year-Old Maiden (Turf 1800m) – Belle Saint Laurent
Details
Post Position: 6
Favorite (Anticipated): 2nd
Projected Expected Value: 150%
Stable: Ritto・Hisashi Shimizu
Jockey: Hiroshi Kitamura
Analysis
Pedigree: Sire Kitasan Black’s progeny are known for abundant lung capacity and sustained acceleration over long distances, suiting Tokyo Turf 1800m. Dam’s sire Azamour (European pedigree) adds stamina and adaptability to tough races, suggesting potential for classic distances.
Training Analysis: “Smoothly worked” indicates excellent preparation. Final fast work on November 19 showed 12.3 seconds for the last furlong on the Ritto uphill track “with plenty left.” The debut comment “showed sharpness in debut” combined with improvement from race experience suggests a better performance than last time.
Race Strategy Prediction: Tokyo Turf 1800m often has a moderate pace, favoring a midfield position to conserve energy for a straight sprint. Kitasan Black’s “sustained speed” characteristic can lead to dominance from the last 400m. The 150% expected value indicates higher potential than odds suggest.
3. Tokyo Race 7: 3-Year-Olds & Up Allowance (Dirt 2100m) – D’Supremacy
Details
Post Position: 7
Favorite (Anticipated): 9th
Projected Expected Value: 157%
Stable: Miho・Koji Maki
Jockey: Takuya Kowata
Analysis
Course Suitability & Distance Extension: Tokyo Dirt 2100m tests stamina and overall ability. The comment “defeated by seconds” implies past conditions were unsuitable. The decision for a long-distance race aims to avoid speed duels and win a grueling race. Sire Dee Majesty’s pedigree suggests distance extension will be positive.
Training Analysis: “No significant change” is interpreted positively, as the horse previously showed impressive leg power and maintained condition in fast work. A complete change in conditions could lead to a drastic performance improvement if its aptitude aligns.
Conclusion: This is a high-risk, high-reward long-distance candidate expected to “turnaround due to a change in conditions.” The 157% expected value signifies that its stamina aptitude is not factored into current odds, making it an unmissable horse for longshot bettors.
4. Tokyo Race 8: 3-Year-Olds & Up Allowance (Dirt 1600m) – Manno Status
Details
Post Position: 16
Favorite (Anticipated): 9th
Projected Expected Value: 149%
Stable: Miho・Tsuguo Ono
Jockey: Yutaka Yoshida
Analysis
Situation Analysis: The “too long off” comment indicates a disadvantage from a long layoff. However, the application of blinkers signals a strong intention from connections to enhance concentration and overcome dullness from the layoff.
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Hokko Tarumae, a dirt racing legend, passes on toughness and late-blooming strength in older horses, many of whom perform well after layoffs. The horse potentially has the underlying strength to overcome the break.
Race Development Prediction: Post position 16 (gate 8), the widest draw, can be favorable in Tokyo Dirt 1600m, allowing the horse to gain speed on the turf portion at the start and establish a smooth early position. Enhanced concentration from blinkers could lead to a tenacious performance. The 149% expected value indicates an excellent opportunity in an undervalued situation.
5. Tokyo Race 10: Akiiro Stakes (3-Year-Olds & Up Allowance, 3 Win Class, Turf 1600m) – Fukuno Blue Lake
Details
Post Position: 9
Favorite (Anticipated): 10th
Projected Expected Value: 132%
Stable: Miho・Masahiro Takeuchi
Jockey: Seiji Matsuoka
Analysis
Current Situation Analysis: Despite struggling against Class 3, the comment “reassessment and reset” signifies a fundamental review of training and race strategy. Horses in a slump can dramatically improve after a successful “reset.”
Pedigree Analysis: Sire Win Bright’s lineage (Stay Gold) suggests potential for explosive power. As a descendant of the Stay Gold line, Fukuno Blue Lake may possess unstoppable power once ignited. A “reset” could revive its true ability for a stunning performance.
Basis of Expected Value: The 132% expected value suggests the horse is not merely participating. While recent placings have lowered market assessment, the “reset” by connections indicates high potential not reflected in the odds.
6. Kyoto Race 11: Mile Championship (G1, Turf 1600m) – Gaia Force
Details
Post Position: 6
Favorite (Anticipated): 4th
Projected Expected Value: 136%
Stable: Ritto・Haruki Sugiyama
Jockey: Makoto Sugihara (anticipated)
Analysis
Condition for G1 Victory: AI projected the highest expected value for this horse in the Mile Championship. The training report praises its “very good condition with no unnecessary flesh,” signifying an athletic physique for ultimate sharpness.
Training Analysis: Praised for “agile footwork” in final fast work. A week prior, it clocked a good time when pushed hard. This training pattern (fast time one week before, light session race week) indicates perfect conditioning to peak on race day.
Pedigree and Course Suitability: Also a progeny of Kitasan Black, showing high aptitude at Kyoto Racecourse. Kyoto Turf 1600m (outer course) requires acceleration using the downhill slope. Gaia Force’s “lean and efficient physique” is ready for an explosive late kick.
Conclusion: The 4th favorite status is attractive, with a 136% expected value indicating a greater probability of overturning higher-ranked favorites than odds suggest. Perfect conditioning and course suitability are key weapons for its anticipated G1 title.
All six analyzed horses possess “hidden positive factors” beyond readily available data and popularity. True winning chances in horse racing are revealed by deciphering the “context” behind the data, not just following common information. The November 23 races at Tokyo and Kyoto are expected to feature significant drama from these horses.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not guarantee winning. Please engage in betting at your own risk.
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