November 20, 2025
Data Analysis for 6 Recommended ‘Value Horses’
Event Overview & Analytical Framework
Kawasaki Racecourse Characteristics
- Smallest of the four South Kanto racecourses.
- Circumference: 1200 meters.
- Key features: Tight corners and spiral curves.
- Favors front-running horses and ‘sweeping’ moves using centrifugal force.
- Track bias significantly impacts race times.
Analysis Purpose
To select ‘value horses’ with high investment potential based on objective data, considering course characteristics, pedigree, training data, and stable comments.
Weather: Cool late autumn conditions.
Recommended Value Horses
Race 1: Black Tourmaline
2YO Unclassified Dirt 900m
Race Structure & Prediction Points
In Kawasaki’s 900m races, the start dash is crucial, especially for 2-year-olds. Pedigree and training content supporting ‘early speed’ are key.
Analysis
Basic Information: Colt, 2yo, Sire: Shanghai Bobby, Dam’s Sire: Battle Plan, Trainer: Ken Takatsuki (Kawasaki), Jockey: Ryo Nohata.
Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby (early-maturing American speedster) x Battle Plan (power pedigree) is an ideal cross for Kawasaki’s 900m, demanding a strong start and power.
Training Data: On Nov 15, outpaced superior 3yo Hinata Sky by 0.9s while held in check, indicating speed capabilities exceeding lower-class older horses.
Assessment: High likelihood of outstanding ability in this class due to pedigree and performance against older horses. Recommended as a highly reliable investment target.
Hidden Potential
Race 2: G. Velocce
Shoryobatta Sho Dirt 1400m
Race Structure & Prediction Points
2-year-old 1400m races require speed, stamina, and temperament. Training volume and pedigree-based distance suitability are critical.
Analysis
Basic Information: Filly, 2yo, Sire: Mozu Ascot, Dam’s Sire: Distorted Humor, Trainer: Yoshikazu Suzuki (Kawasaki), Jockey: Naoto Machida.
Training Data: On Nov 16, outpaced Galadella Pantera (strong contender) by 0.4s while circling wide. Stable comment: ‘excellent closing speed.’ Condition is outstanding.
Pedigree: Mozu Ascot x Distorted Humor excels in sustained speed and can handle Kawasaki’s 1400m pace.
Conclusion: Most reliable anchor horse in this race due to overwhelming training performance, pedigree suitability, and stable confidence. Assessed to have extremely high win and exacta/quinella potential.
Peak Condition
Race 3: Mama Arigato
Pfeil Sho Dirt 900m
Race Structure & Prediction Points
A 900m race for 3-year-olds, focusing on adaptation to sprint pace for horses shortening their distance.
Analysis
Basic Information: Filly, 3yo, Sire: Noble Mission, Dam’s Sire: Pyro, Trainer: Satoru Furusawa (Kawasaki), Jockey: Wataru Fujie.
Distance Reduction: Trainer Furusawa intentionally shortened the distance, stating, “1500 meters is too long. I have renewed expectations for 900 meters.”
Pedigree Re-evaluation: While the sire is European, the dam’s sire, Pyro, is a top sire with a proven record in Japanese dirt sprints. This distance reduction may unlock her maternal line’s sprinting aptitude.
Conclusion: An interesting ‘value horse’ for high dividends, despite not having outstanding past performance. The strategic distance change and the explosive power of her dam’s sire make her a worthwhile wager.
Win Bet Potential
Race 4: Pegase Briller
C3-1-2 Dirt 1400m
Race Structure & Prediction Points
In C3 class, condition is paramount. Assessing smooth racing and perfect physical condition is crucial.
Analysis
Basic Information: Horse, 5yo, Sire: Daiwa Major, Dam’s Sire: Union Rags, Trainer: Yuki Yamashita (Funabashi), Jockey: Hikaru Nakano.
Training Data: Recorded outstanding training times at Funabashi on Nov 15: ‘5F 51.1 – 3F 38.0’, indicating meticulous preparation for this target race.
Stable Comments: Trainer Yamashita commented, “There are no issues with the preparation,” indicating readiness after a break.
Conclusion: Solid reliability as an anchor horse in the C3 class, with training, stable comments, and pedigree aligning.
Proven Record & Class
Race 9: Sound Bach
Goen no Kuni Shimane Special Dirt 1400m
Race Structure & Prediction Points
A B3 class special race where promoted horses challenge established forces.
Analysis
Basic Information: Colt, 3yo, Sire: Moanin, Dam’s Sire: Fuji Kiseki, Trainer: Hiroshi Kawazu (Kawasaki), Jockey: Shigeharu Honda.
Training Performance: On Nov 15, outpaced Mind Your Mimosa (B1) by 0.1s while circling wide. Recorded an exceptional 4 furlongs in 49.5 seconds, demonstrating ability transcending the B3 class.
Pedigree: Moanin (Henny Hughes line) x Fuji Kiseki (Sunday Silence line) is a golden cross in modern dirt racing, with 1400m being its best stage.
Conclusion: Strongly recommended as the most valuable pick of the day. Class is a stepping stone, with condition, pedigree, and stable expectations at the highest level.
Peak Condition
Race 11: Gloria Mundi
Fujimi Open Dirt 2100m
Race Structure & Prediction Points
The main race is a long-distance 2100m event. Stamina and pace distribution are key, comparing proven horses and rising stars.
Analysis
Basic Information: Horse, 7yo, Sire: King Kamehameha, Dam’s Sire: Blu Air Force, Trainer: Hajime Kawashima (Kawasaki), Jockey: Norihiro Mikamoto.
Record and Class: Winner of the Diolite Kinen (Jpn2) and a Dirt Graded race winner. Possesses overwhelming superiority in ability for a South Kanto Open Special race. Proven aptitude for 2100m.
Preparation: Recorded an accelerating last furlong of 12.1 seconds on an uphill track, showing no signs of decline at 7 years old. Stable is confident, stating he is “in a condition to show his full power.”
Conclusion: Most solid choice as an anchor for betting. Underlying ability is superior, with no discernible weaknesses in record, distance aptitude, or preparation. Weight impost is a challenge but compensated by capabilities.
Proven Record & Class
Overall Conclusion & Recommended Portfolio
The ‘value horses’ are categorized as follows:
- ‘Hidden Potential’ Discovery Category: Black Tourmaline (Race 1)
- ‘Peak Condition’ Certain Victory Category: G. Velocce (Race 2), Sound Bach (Race 9)
- ‘Proven Record and Class’ Reliable Category: Pegase Briller (Race 4), Gloria Mundi (Race 11)
Betting Strategy Recommendations
- Anchor Horses: Sound Bach (Race 9) and G. Velocce (Race 2) are the most reliable anchor horses.
- Win Bets: Black Tourmaline (Race 1) and Mama Arigato (Race 3) could be interesting for win bets depending on odds.
- Exacta/Quinella Focus: For Gloria Mundi (Race 11), focus on finding strong exacta/quinella partners, as he is a solid exacta/quinella anchor.
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