Report Summary
This report provides a data analysis and prediction for six horses at Kawasaki Horse Racing on November 19, 2025, focusing on identifying “expected value” by analyzing discrepancies between market odds and projected winning probabilities. The analysis integrates pedigree, training data, and stable comments to highlight horses with overlooked performance signals. Key featured races include the Rosita Kinen with Will Shine and the final race with Star Grip.
Key Points:
- Six recommended horses for Kawasaki Horse Racing on November 19, 2025, based on data analysis.
- Horses selected for high “expected value” due to market odds not reflecting projected winning probabilities.
- Featured races: Rosita Kinen (Will Shine) and the final race (Star Grip).
- Analysis combines pedigree, training data, and stable comments for justification.
Recommended Portfolio
| Race | Class | Recommended Horse | Projected Win Rate | Projected Place Rate | Projected Odds | Investment Rationale Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kawasaki 02R | Tsubame Sho | Grand Freude | 19% | 53% | 287% | Speed Arbitrage |
| Kawasaki 03R | Shijukara Sho | Meisho Matilda | 21% | 49% | 298% | Temperament Risk Discount |
| Kawasaki 08R | Scotch Sho | Saddle | 15% | 53% | 416% | Recovery Signal Value |
| Kawasaki 09R | Malt Sho | GT Kaisoku | 24% | 59% | 307% | Race Flow-Dependent High Return |
| Kawasaki 11R | Rosita Kinen | Will Shine | 17% | 61% | 388% | Peak Performance |
| Kawasaki 12R | Bourbon Sho | Star Grip | 14% | 66% | 460% | Class Potential Discrepancy |
Detailed Horse Analysis
Kawasaki Race 02: Tsubame Sho (Dirt 900m) – Grand Freude (No. 8)
This race emphasizes pure speed and reaction time due to the long stretch to the first turn.
Featured Horse: Grand Freude (No. 8)
Pedigree: Sire Benbatl provides speed, and the maternal line’s Storm Cat influence offers American-style dirt sprint aptitude. 3×4 inbreeding to Storm Cat reinforces early development and explosive power, beneficial for 2-year-olds.
Training Data: On November 14, Grand Freude finished level with a higher-class opponent under a hand ride, clocking 50.9 seconds for 5 furlongs and 37.7 seconds for the last 3 furlongs, indicating superior ability for the C2 class.
- Nov 14 Training: Kawasaki Training Track, Good track, Hand Ride, Workmate: One Target (B3), Time: 68.7 – 50.9 – 37.7, Comment: Moves lightly.
Stable Sentiment: Trainer Kawazu expects a lot from the horse due to its speed and improved training times, noting good condition for the 900m distance.
Rival Evaluation: Monza Second (No. 1) and Hidegami Queen (No. 3) have start issues. Bitter Melon (No. 2) is making a debut transfer with unknown adaptation. Grand Freude is considered the most reliable key horse.Kawasaki Race 03: Shijukara Sho (Dirt 1500m) – Meisho Matilda (No. 3)
This 3-year-old race balances mental and physical maturity, with tractability being crucial over four turns.
Featured Horse: Meisho Matilda (No. 3)
Pedigree: Sire California Chrome is known for progeny excelling on Japanese local dirt tracks. The dam’s side, with Sunday Silence lineage, suggests a front-running style suitable for 1500m.
Stable Sentiment: Trainer Jun Murata describes her as “temperamental and unreliable,” but capable of contention with a smooth trip. This temperament inflates odds, increasing expected value. Her ability is considered winning level. The inner gate (Gate 3) may aid mental stability.Kawasaki Race 08: Scotch Sho (Dirt 1400m) – Saddle (No. 7)
Featured Horse: Saddle (No. 7)
Pedigree & Recovery: Sire Heart’s Cry produces late-maturing progeny with sustained ability. She possesses stamina for dirt 1400m. Rested due to a stone bruise, her final workout showed she was pushed hard, indicating recovery.
Stable Sentiment: Trainer Hirata acknowledges her class advantage and favorable transfer conditions. Her current undervaluation due to injury risk is a buying signal.Kawasaki Race 09: Malt Sho (Dirt 1600m) – GT Kaisoku (No. 1)
Featured Horse: GT Kaisoku (No. 1)
Pedigree & Race Style: Sire Dream Valentino and dam’s sire Durandal suggest conserving energy for a late surge. Trainer Hiroshi Yamazaki noted the horse had “plenty left in the tank” in the previous race due to being boxed in. Despite the innermost gate, jockey Tsubasa Sasagawa’s navigation could enable a strong finish.Kawasaki Race 11: Rosita Kinen (Dirt 2100m) – Will Shine (No. 5)
This is a nationwide graded race for 3-year-old fillies, testing stamina and mental fortitude over a challenging 2100m.
Featured Horse: Will Shine (No. 5)
Pedigree: Stamina from sire Just A Way (Heart’s Cry progeny) combined with dirt aptitude from dam’s sire Speightstown provides a balance for Kawasaki’s tough track and the 2100m distance.
Training Data: On November 15, under a hand ride, she achieved the last 2 furlongs in 36.0 seconds, described as “excellent movement” and “regaining top form,” indicating peak condition.
Stable Sentiment: Trainer Yutaka Sato has “high expectations for her over the long distance again,” reinforcing her proven long-distance aptitude.
Rival Comparison: While Donna Gini (No. 1) and Blue Passion (No. 6) are strong, Will Shine has an edge in training performance and distance aptitude.Kawasaki Race 12: Bourbon Sho (Dirt 1500m) – Star Grip (No. 14)
Featured Horse: Star Grip (No. 14)
Pedigree & Return: Sire Asia Express suggests aptitude for dirt mile races. Returning from a layoff due to “fetlock concerns,” his final workout showed a sharp 37.8 seconds for the last 3 furlongs, with no signs of leg issues.
Stable Sentiment: Trainer Tajima is confident in his ability for C1 class. Jockey Tsubasa Sasagawa’s engagement for his return race signals strong winning intent. His current undervaluation due to injury risk offers high return potential.
Summary and Recommended Strategy
The investment strategy for Kawasaki Horse Racing on November 19, 2025, is based on three pillars:
- Correction of Aptitude Assessment (Races 2 & 9): Grand Freude and GT Kaisoku are expected to outperform market expectations under specific conditions, providing reliable returns.
- Repricing of Risk (Races 3 & 8): Meisho Matilda (temperamental) and Saddle (returning from injury) have distorted odds due to negative information, but the risks are deemed manageable.
- Peak and Potential (Races 11 & 12): Will Shine (in-form) and Star Grip (high potential) represent the highest expected value. Their high place rates make them logical anchors for exacta/trifecta bets.
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