Published on November 16, 2025 / Updated on November 16, 2025
A detailed analysis of 11 handpicked horses for the Tokyo Racecourse, blending AI indices with qualitative data. We break down the betting value and rationale, from the overwhelming favorite Danon Mustang to the balanced contender Danon Figo, and even longshots with over 300% value that the market has overlooked.
- Key Takeaways
- Tokyo 1R 2-Year-Old Maiden – New Kawaii
- Tokyo 2R 2-Year-Old Maiden – Honobono
- Tokyo 3R 2-Year-Old Maiden – My Chibai
- Tokyo 4R 2-Year-Old Newcomer – Asian Treasure
- Tokyo 5R 2-Year-Old Newcomer – Danon Mustang
- Tokyo 7R 3-Year-Old & Up, 2-Win Class – Osea Express
- Tokyo 8R 3-Year-Old & Up, 2-Win Class – King no Jo
- Tokyo 9R Ginrei S – Danon Figo
- Tokyo 10R Utopia S – Shonan Someday
- Tokyo 11R Aurora C – Red Schwert
- Tokyo 12R 3-Year-Old & Up, 1-Win Class – Premier Solti
Key Takeaways
- Solid Pick: Danon Mustang (Tokyo 5R) with an 88% AI Favorite Index.
- Best Value Bet: Danon Figo (Tokyo 9R), balancing a 52% win probability with great value.
- High-Payout Longshots: New Kawaii (Tokyo 1R), Honobono (Tokyo 2R), and Premier Solti (Tokyo 12R), all with over 300% value scores.
- Methodology: Our analysis combines quantitative AI data with qualitative information like stable comments and workout evaluations.
Tokyo 1R 2-Year-Old Maiden – New Kawaii
Projected Popularity
11th
Pro Favorite Index
8%
Value Score
381%
Analysis Points
Qualitative assessments from trackmen and workout reports are low, which is the main reason for its projected 11th popularity. However, the AI gives this horse an extremely high “Value Score” of 381%, indicating a massive gap between market perception and the AI’s calculated probability of a good run.
Why We Recommend
The recommendation is based squarely on this 381% figure. It’s evidence that the AI model is weighing factors the market is ignoring. Specifically, the 52kg weight carried by jockey ▲Endo Taiga. In a low-level maiden race, the AI analyzes that this 3kg reduction could have enough impact to overcome the negative qualitative ratings. The stable’s comment “expecting further progress” also suggests potential for improvement. This is a pick for those who trust the data model and are aiming for a high payout.
Tokyo 2R 2-Year-Old Maiden – Honobono
Projected Popularity
9th
Pro Favorite Index
10%
Value Score
348%
Analysis Points
Similar to Race 1, this is a longshot highly rated by the AI for its value (348%). The key factor again is the light weight of 53kg with jockey ▲Endo Taiga. The stable’s comment “if it can just hold on better” clearly identifies the horse’s weakness, and the 3kg weight reduction is likely to directly assist with this “stamina” issue.
Why We Recommend
Unlike New Kawaii in Race 1, this horse has qualitative data to back it up. The workout report is positive, stating “steady footwork.” Despite being projected as the 9th favorite, the AI’s Pro Favorite Index is 10%, higher than its popularity suggests. With a clear problem (stamina) and a clear solution (weight reduction), the AI’s 348% value score seems well-founded. We recommend this as a more reliable value pick than the one in Race 1.
Tokyo 3R 2-Year-Old Maiden – My Chibai
Projected Popularity
5th
Pro Favorite Index
9%
Value Score
192%
Analysis Points
The theme for this horse is clearly “second-race improvement.” The biggest key is the “gate,” as pointed out in the stable comments. If it can get a clean break, a performance jump is almost certain. The workout report noting “a light workout was sufficient” also suggests the horse is improving smoothly and is already in good condition.
Why We Recommend
The team’s post-race feelings and recent stable comments are consistent, making the expected improvement highly credible. The 192% value score, which accounts for the clear risk factor of the gate, presents a worthwhile opportunity. It’s a solid choice as a mid-range longshot to build bets around.
Tokyo 4R 2-Year-Old Newcomer – Asian Treasure
Projected Popularity
5th
Pro Favorite Index
16%
Value Score
248%
Analysis Points
In newcomer races, the stable’s confidence in a horse’s readiness is a crucial factor. This horse has drawn a strong comment from the team: “It’s above standard.” Furthermore, the workout report praises its “powerful movement,” indicating it’s ready to perform from its very first race.
Why We Recommend
Despite qualitative information strongly suggesting good preparation, the market has it projected as only the 5th favorite. Given its readiness, this is a clear undervaluation. The AI rates it with a 16% Pro Favorite Index, higher than its popularity, which directly translates to the high 248% value score. This is a horse to consider betting on from its debut.
Tokyo 5R 2-Year-Old Newcomer – Danon Mustang
Projected Popularity
1st
Pro Favorite Index
88%
Value Score
169%
Analysis Points
This is the standout horse in today’s AI evaluation. A Pro Favorite Index of “88%” is exceptionally high, indicating the AI’s conclusion that “it’s very unlikely to lose.” The basis for this overwhelming index is clearly reflected in the qualitative data. The workout report offers the highest praise with “outstanding propulsion.” The stable also comments that it’s a “light-footed horse with good racing sense,” suggesting a low risk of self-destruction due to temperament issues common in debut races.
Why We Recommend
With both “high ability” and “race sense,” there are no apparent qualitative weaknesses. The 169% value score means that even as the 1st favorite, from the AI’s perspective, the odds are still generous. The AI calculates this horse’s fair odds to be around 1.1, making the current market odds a value proposition. We recommend this as today’s “unshakeable anchor” bet.
Tokyo 7R 3-Year-Old & Up, 2-Win Class – Osea Express
Projected Popularity
6th
Pro Favorite Index
18%
Pro Contender Index
59
Value Score
256%
Analysis Points
The “powerful finishing kick” shown in its workout indicates the horse is in good condition. However, the stable’s comment is a bit reserved: “if things go well.” This tone may be suppressing its popularity. But the AI highly rates its workout performance and fundamental ability. A Pro Favorite Index of 18% and a Pro Contender Index of 59 suggest that while it may not win, it has a very high chance of finishing in 2nd or 3rd place.
Why We Recommend
The AI gives it a high “Value Score” of 256%, analyzing that the market is overreacting to the stable’s cautious tone. Despite being the 6th favorite, the AI’s evaluation is significantly higher. For betting purposes, it’s an attractive horse not for a win bet, but as a key horse for 2nd or 3rd place in Trifecta/Superfecta bets, or as part of an Exacta box.
Tokyo 8R 3-Year-Old & Up, 2-Win Class – King no Jo
Projected Popularity
4th
Pro Favorite Index
21%
Value Score
204%
Analysis Points
This horse’s biggest advantage is the “class drop.” Experts also rate it highly, stating “back in its own class on the Tokyo course, it has a great chance to close and win.” The stable also recognizes its superior ability with comments like “a fresh start in its own class.” The workout report mentioning it “held its own against a higher-class horse” further confirms its top-tier ability at this level.
Why We Recommend
The AI index, market popularity, and value score are well-balanced. However, when considering the expert opinions and the team’s recognition of the class advantage, it’s more reliable than its popularity suggests. The qualitative information strongly supports the AI’s evaluation, making it a strong candidate for the top pick.
Tokyo 9R Ginrei S – Danon Figo
Projected Popularity
2nd
Pro Favorite Index
52%
Value Score
220%
Analysis Points
A Pro Favorite Index of 52% is outstanding for this class (3-Win Class), showing the AI’s strong confidence. As a 3-year-old, there’s also potential for growth. Post-race analysis notes “it was a good experience in a higher class,” suggesting a significant performance improvement is likely in its second race since moving up.
Why We Recommend
This is the rarest horse among today’s picks, achieving both a “high win rate (52% Favorite Index)” and “high value (220% Value Score).” The market might be slightly skeptical of a 3-year-old in its second race at this level, but the AI is confident that “it’s a contender to win this time.” This gap creates the 220% value. The “powerful leg action” in its workout proves its good condition, making it an excellent choice for a win bet or as the anchor for an Exacta.
Tokyo 10R Utopia S – Shonan Someday
Projected Popularity
3rd
Pro Favorite Index
24%
Pro Contender Index
68
Value Score
195%
Analysis Points
The deciding factor for this horse is the stable’s comment: “expecting good results against other fillies.” While it hasn’t quite managed to win in mixed-gender races, this fillies-and-mares-only race is a clear advantage. The workout report, “excellent for a solo run,” confirms its good condition, making it a strong contender with the improved race conditions.
Why We Recommend
The AI’s “Pro Contender Index of 68” is exceptionally high, indicating a strong probability of finishing in the top two. The AI analysis suggests that “while winning is uncertain in this competitive field, it’s unlikely to finish out of the money.” Its reliability as a “quinella anchor” is higher than its 3rd-place popularity suggests. With a 195% value score, it’s an ideal horse to build Exacta and Trifecta bets around.
Tokyo 11R Aurora C – Red Schwert
Projected Popularity
4th
Pro Favorite Index
20%
Pro Contender Index
74
Value Score
152%
Analysis Points
The stable’s comment “condition is better than last race” is one of the most reliable signs of improvement for a horse in its “second race after a layoff.” The “sharp movement” in its workout further confirms this improvement. The AI highly values this “second race back” pattern.
Why We Recommend
A Pro Contender Index of 74 is the highest among all 11 horses picked today. The AI analyzes that this horse has an extremely high probability of finishing in the money (especially in the top two). As the 20% Pro Favorite Index suggests, rather than betting on a win, it’s the most reliable horse to use as an anchor for Exacta and Trifecta bets.
Tokyo 12R 3-Year-Old & Up, 1-Win Class – Premier Solti
Projected Popularity
6th
Pro Favorite Index
21%
Value Score
351%
Analysis Points
This is today’s biggest value candidate, where the market’s assessment (6th favorite) and the AI’s evaluation (21% Pro Favorite Index) are in direct conflict. A 21% index in a 1-Win Class race is extremely high, meaning the AI sees a strong chance of victory. This bullish AI rating is supported by qualitative data: the stable confirms “its condition is improving,” and the workout report notes it “maintains good spirits,” with no negative factors in sight.
Why We Recommend
This gap in evaluation has created today’s highest value score of “351%.” While the market may be undervaluing this horse based on recent form, the AI has calculated its “current good condition” and “suitability for today’s race conditions” and concluded it has a “21% chance of winning.” For those who trust AI data analysis, this is a horse to actively bet on for a win and as an anchor for Exacta bets.
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