November 12, 2025 / November 12, 2025
This report focuses on the Minami Kanto Ohi Racecourse on November 12, 2025, providing an in-depth analysis of recommended horses derived from quantitative data and qualitative assessment. We delve into the training details, stable comments, and race suitability of “value bets” in each race, including Gobuddy, the featured horse for the main race, Haiseiko Kinen (S2), to explore their winning potential.
- Summary of Key Points
- November 12, 2025 Ohi Racecourse: List of Recommended Horses (Quantitative Analysis)
- Ohi 01R C3 (12)(13) Group Dirt 1600m
- Ohi 02R C3 (12)(13) Group Dirt 1200m
- Ohi 03R 2YO (4)(5) Dirt 1200m
- Ohi 04R C2 (8)(9) Group Dirt 1600m
- Ohi 06R C2 (8)(9) Group Dirt 1200m
- Ohi 07R C1 (2)(3) Group Dirt 1600m
- Ohi 11R Haiseiko Kinen (S2) 2YO Dirt 1600m
- Ohi 12R November Sho A2 and below Selection Dirt 1600m
Summary of Key Points
- Main Race Featured Horse: For the Haiseiko Kinen (S2), Gobuddy is recommended, with the stable describing its “potential as first-class.”
- Highest Value Bet of the Day: Meisho Kajibo in Race 4 recorded a value index of 333%. This horse targets the blind spot of a transfer debut.
- Highly Reliable Key Horse: White Magic in Race 6 boasts a stable win rate of 33% and a place rate of 70%. Victory is highly likely from an excellent draw.
- Impressive Training Evaluation: Nihondaira in Race 7 showed training performance that overwhelmed higher-class horses, demonstrating ability far beyond the C1 class.
November 12, 2025 Ohi Racecourse: List of Recommended Horses (Quantitative Analysis)
This report presents 8 “value bets” selected based on provided quantitative data (estimated win rate, estimated place rate, estimated odds index), supplemented by comprehensive qualitative analysis of training data, stable comments, and race suitability.
| Course | R | Pick | Gate | Horse No. | Horse Name | Est. Win Rate | Est. Place Rate | Est. Odds Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohi | 01R | ◎ | 3 | 3 | Tosen Dean | 29% | 60% | 278% |
| Ohi | 02R | ◎ | 2 | 3 | Koigoromo | 23% | 67% | 309% |
| Ohi | 03R | ◎ | 5 | 5 | Flight Nurse | 31% | 61% | 215% |
| Ohi | 04R | ◎ | 8 | 13 | Meisho Kajibo | 23% | 60% | 333% |
| Ohi | 06R | ◎ | 1 | 1 | White Magic | 33% | 70% | 239% |
| Ohi | 07R | ◎ | 8 | 11 | Nihondaira | 29% | 67% | 286% |
| Ohi | 11R | ◎ | 5 | 10 | Gobuddy | 24% | 76% | 305% |
| Ohi | 12R | ◎ | 4 | 4 | Escendream | 23% | 60% | 285% |
Ohi 01R C3 (12)(13) Group Dirt 1600m
Race Prediction Points
This is a C3 class mile race. Composed of maiden and lower-class horses, the individual ability differences tend to be relatively large. If even one horse possesses superior ability, it is highly likely to directly influence the outcome. Recommended horse Tosen Dean is ridden by jockey Norihiro Mikamoto, and the presence of a top jockey in Minami Kanto in this class is a crucial indicator of the stable’s winning intent.
Recommended Horse: ◎ Gate 3, Horse No. 3 Tosen Dean
According to quantitative data, with an estimated win rate of 29% and an estimated place rate of 60%, Tosen Dean is designated as a standout in this race. The analysis and rationale are as follows:
- Jockey’s Advantage: The biggest highlight is the engagement of jockey Norihiro Mikamoto. Securing a top-ranked jockey in the C3 class is seen as a clear sign of the stable’s intent to win.
- Source of Value (Value 278%): In cases of significant previous defeat or poor performance, market odds may not be overly popular. However, the quantitative model judges this horse’s potential ability to be higher than the market’s evaluation, and this discrepancy between evaluation and popularity is the reason it is considered a “value bet.”
- Pedigree: Sired by New Bay, with Privately Held as dam’s sire. This breeding, with a European G1 winner sire and an American-bred dam’s sire, suggests suitability for Ohi’s dirt mile.
Conclusion: Tosen Dean is a horse that the quantitative model strongly recommends, indicating a clear difference in ability. The objective positive factor of engaging a top jockey further supports this recommendation.
Ohi 02R C3 (12)(13) Group Dirt 1200m
Race Prediction Points
This is a C3 class sprint race. Several horses showing improved condition can be seen, making it a race where evaluation based solely on previous results is difficult. Yoshino Ruby (No. 15) shows remarkable improvement in training, and Meisho Yumo (No. 13) recorded excellent times. Earth Gravity (No. 6) has indicated a clear front-running strategy, which will influence the race pace.
Recommended Horse: ◎ Gate 2, Horse No. 3 Koigoromo
With a high estimated win rate of 23% and a place rate of 67%, combined with a value index of “309%”, Koigoromo has been selected as a highly promising “value bet.” This assessment is strongly supported by qualitative analysis.
- Clear “Improvement” in Stable Comments: Trainer Matsuura explicitly stated, “After one run since the break, the condition has improved.” The previous race (10th place) was clearly not its true form, and this time, the stable has given a clear “Go signal.”
- Training Backing: In the final workout, it was pushed “strongly” and received the highest praise of “moving better than in the previous race.” This confirms that its burst of speed as a sprinter has returned.
- Causal Relationship with Quantitative Data: The source of the “309%” value index lies in the high probability that the market will be misled by the superficial “10th place in the previous race.” However, if that defeat is seen as “after a layoff” and based on “improved condition” internal information, then this race can be concluded as the real target.
Conclusion: Koigoromo is an excellent target this time, likely to see its popularity drop due to its big defeat in the previous race. Both stable and training reports indicate a clear improvement for its “second run after a layoff,” making the quantitative model’s recommendation well-reasoned.
Ohi 03R 2YO (4)(5) Dirt 1200m
Race Prediction Points
This is a race for inexperienced two-year-olds. Horses at this stage show significant fluctuations in condition, and training movements tend to directly correlate with race results. However, in this race, no horse shows an outstanding performance. Even the recommended horse, Flight Nurse, received a harsh evaluation of “unsatisfactory late burst.” Therefore, “race development” and “suitability for conditions” are likely to be key rather than pure “ability.”
Recommended Horse: ◎ Gate 5, Horse No. 5 Flight Nurse
With an estimated win rate of 31%, Flight Nurse is recommended with a very high probability for a two-year-old race. However, this recommendation shows a clear “contradiction” with the qualitative training data, requiring careful analysis.
- Concerns from Qualitative Data: The final workout time was ordinary, and the short report was strict, stating “lacks power” and “unsatisfactory late burst,” suggesting that its condition is not improving.
- Logic of Quantitative Data: Why does the quantitative model give it such a high evaluation? The answer lies in the “easing of race conditions” that overrides the ordinary training. Trainer Shimada commented, “I think the conditions are easier compared to its first race,” implying that the previous race was at a much higher level.
- Integrated Analysis of Contradictions: It is inferred that the quantitative model has already factored in the “ordinary training” and, more significantly, highly evaluates “the level of the previous race” and “the low level of the current field.” Even horses that don’t move well in training can hold on if they can lead at their own pace.
Conclusion: Flight Nurse would be lowly rated based solely on its training movements. However, the quantitative model is betting on “eased conditions” that more than compensate for this negative factor, making it a typical “value bet” pattern that arises when data and on-site assessments conflict.
Ohi 04R C2 (8)(9) Group Dirt 1600m
Race Prediction Points
This is a C2 class mile race. The recommended horse, Meisho Kajibo, is making its transfer debut, and the focus will be on its strength compared to existing horses. Gryphon (No. 9) has a high stable evaluation and shows enthusiasm for consecutive wins, while Grüneberg (No. 7) is expected to perform well based on training movements and course suitability. Oichinokata (No. 10) is also expected to improve in its third run after a layoff.
Recommended Horse: ◎ Gate 8, Horse No. 13 Meisho Kajibo
In the quantitative data, it achieved a “333%” value index, the highest “value bet” index of the day. The source of this high value lies in the “blind spot in popularity” created by the “stable’s cautious stance” and the “uncertainty of a transfer debut.”
- Team’s Cautious Comments: Trainer Munakata’s tone was extremely cautious, saying, “I’ll have to see how it performs first.” Transfer horses with such comments tend to see their popularity drop in the market.
- Quantitative Model’s “Rebuttal”: However, the quantitative model gives it a high win rate of 23%. This is because the algorithm evaluates its past performance when it was affiliated with JRA (Japan Racing Association), where it competed at a level far exceeding the current C2 class.
- Condition Backing: Contrary to the stable’s comments, the final workout received the evaluation of “improved with this workout,” indicating that its preparation is proceeding smoothly.
- Pedigree and Jockey: Its pedigree, sired by Hokko Tarumae, is suitable for the Ohi mile, and jockey Yutaka Sasagawa has been secured, suggesting expectations beyond the stable’s cautious tone.
Conclusion: Meisho Kajibo’s cautious stable comments serve as camouflage, creating an excellent value opportunity. The quantitative model judges its JRA record to be overwhelmingly superior in this class, and there’s a high possibility of a strong performance from its transfer debut.
Ohi 06R C2 (8)(9) Group Dirt 1200m
Race Prediction Points
This is a C2 class sprint race. Strong contenders are concentrated in the inner gates, making the front-running battle and gate advantage key. Silhouette Ride (No. 3) is in good condition, Pomme Verte (No. 4) maintains good form, and Fulgurate (No. 6) also seems to have a good feel despite making its transfer debut.
Recommended Horse: ◎ Gate 1, Horse No. 1 White Magic
With an estimated win rate of 33% and a place rate of 70%, White Magic is recommended as the most reliable key horse candidate among the 8 horses recommended today. The rationale for this recommendation is the combination of three factors: “excellent draw,” “improving condition,” and “stable’s confident stance.”
- Good Condition: The final workout was highly praised as “moving better than the clock indicated,” clearly showing improved condition from its previous assessment of “still a bit heavy.”
- Team’s Confident Comments: Trainer Ichimura expressed strong confidence in further improvement, stating, “Its performance last time was good. It can do even better.” while satisfied with its previous 2nd place.
- Race Development Advantage: Gate “1” is a definite advantage. Jockey Takaaki Yano can race without loss from this gate and secure a good position.
Conclusion: As indicated by the quantitative data, White Magic is an extremely reliable horse. Both training and stable comments indicate improvement, and having drawn the excellent Gate 1 this time, an advancement from its previous 2nd place, namely a victory, is highly probable.
Ohi 07R C1 (2)(3) Group Dirt 1600m
Race Prediction Points
This is a C1 class mile race. Including the recommended horse Nihondaira, three horses received a “◎” (top pick) from their stables, indicating a very high-level and rare contested race. Kei Ai Ernato (No. 4) and Father To Sun (No. 6) both show significant improvement for their second run after a layoff and are highly rated.
Recommended Horse: ◎ Gate 8, Horse No. 11 Nihondaira
In this high-level race, Nihondaira is recommended with a high evaluation of 29% estimated win rate and 286% value index. The reason for this is the overwhelming difference in training “quality.”
- Stable’s Strong Winning Intent: Trainer Saso marked this horse with “◎” and commented, “I expect consecutive wins.” While rivals commented on “a good fight” or “want to get results,” this is the only one using “consecutive wins,” a word strongly implying victory.
- Exceptional Training Performance: In the final workout, it easily finished alongside a higher-class horse (B3 class) “hand-ridden.” Considering that the other horse was “pushed hard,” Nihondaira effortlessly handled a higher-class horse. Its ability is immeasurable.
- Source of Value: Since three horses received a stable “◎”, popularity is bound to be distributed. However, given its training performance that overwhelms even a B1 horse and the stable’s stated intent for “consecutive wins,” it can be judged that this horse is a cut above in this contested race.
Conclusion: Nihondaira is the only horse that truly gives off an aura of “authenticity” in what appears to be a contested race. Its training performance, overwhelming a higher-class horse effortlessly, indicates that it is already not a C1 class horse.
Ohi 11R Haiseiko Kinen (S2) 2YO Dirt 1600m
Race Prediction Points
Today’s main race, a two-year-old graded race (S2). This is an important race predicting next year’s Classics. Lowlyu (No. 4) is confident in the extended distance, Chance Lard (No. 6) is undefeated with two consecutive wins and has shown no limits. Barbarion (No. 8), who completely defeated Gobuddy in the maiden race, also has the potential for a complete change if it leads.
Featured Horse: ◎ Gate 5, Horse No. 10 Gobuddy
The quantitative data shows an estimated place rate of 76%, an exceptionally high reliability for a graded race. This figure is perfectly supported by qualitative data, making it a truly deserving “featured horse” for today.
- Stable’s Highest Praise: Trainer Matoba commented, “Its potential is first-class.” This is the highest compliment a veteran trainer can give a two-year-old, indicating confidence in its ability.
- Perfect Training Finish: As indicated by the phrase “aiming for this race,” the final workout was highly praised as “light and agile movements stand out,” and the short report stated “perfectly conditioned,” indicating an impeccable state of readiness.
- Logic of 76% Place Rate: The reason the quantitative model calculated such a high place rate is its evaluation of this horse’s “room for improvement” and “stability.” In its previous race, it finished ahead of Barbarion, whom it lost to in the maiden race, showing rapid growth with each outing.
Conclusion: Gobuddy is the closest contender for a graded race victory, with the stable’s confidence in its “first-class potential” and training backing of being “perfectly conditioned.” Its 76% place rate reliability is unshakable.
Ohi 12R November Sho A2 and below Selection Dirt 1600m
Race Prediction Points
This is an A2 and below selection race. It’s a strong field with proven performers and rising stars. Sharfjin (No. 3), with two graded race victories as a 3-year-old, is expected to improve in its second run after a layoff. Muttkurufe (No. 2), who won impressively last time, also maintains good form. Draken (No. 6) also emerges as a contender due to distance suitability.
Recommended Horse: ◎ Gate 4, Horse No. 4 Escendream
Despite losing in a graded race last time, Escendream is recommended with a high evaluation of 23% estimated win rate and 285% value index. The basis for this is its “clear reason for defeat” and “overwhelming suitability for conditions.”
- Overwhelming Course Suitability: This horse’s biggest asset is its almost perfect record of “6 wins in 7 starts” on Ohi dirt 1600m.
- Clear Reason for Previous Defeat: Its only poor performance in the previous race was in a higher-class graded race, and there was a clear reason for its defeat: it “got off to a slow start.” Trainer Takami also expressed confidence in a comeback, stating, “It will show its true form back in its own class.”
- Perfect Condition: In the final workout, it recorded excellent times and was highly praised as “excellent late burst when pushed.” It is not affected by the previous defeat, and its condition is perfect.
Conclusion: For Escendream, its previous defeat has room for leniency. Returning to its “home ground,” where it boasts an overwhelming record of 6 wins in 7 starts on the Ohi mile, and with perfect training, a comeback is analyzed as inevitable.
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