Nov 8, 2025 Maiden Race Predictions | Mirage Noir, a Horse “On Another Level,” Debuts!

The 2-year-old maiden races on November 8, 2025, will be held at Tokyo, Kyoto, and Fukushima. The Tokyo 5R is drawing particular attention for the showdown between two powerhouses: Mirage Noir and L’Avenue. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the horses to watch in all six races, based on expert ratings, training, pedigree, and stable comments, offering a professional perspective on betting strategy.

Key Takeaways

• The Nov 8, 2025 maiden races are a gateway for classic contenders, held at Tokyo, Kyoto, and Fukushima.
• Tokyo 5R is an ultra-high-level clash between Mirage Noir, praised as “on another level,” and L’Avenue, who possesses “exceptional propulsion.”
• In Tokyo 4R, the American-bred Purnabhadra, who recorded a phenomenal training time, will debut, but has temperament issues.
• Reading between the lines of stable comments is crucial. Concerns like “gate issues” or “spooking” are important factors when evaluating popular horses.
• The key to prediction lies in discerning each horse’s aptitude and condition from the combination of pedigree and training performance.

【Tokyo 5R 2YO Maiden Turf 1800m】 – This Week’s Main Event! Clash of “Different Class” Talents

The most anticipated debut race this week is the traditional Tokyo Turf 1800m. The ratings for two horses, sent by top stables from east and west Japan, are overwhelmingly higher than the rest, making this an exceptionally high-level race with an eye on next year’s classics.

Top Pick: (8) Mirage Noir (Filly)

Data Analysis:

• Stable: Miho – Keisuke Miyata
• Jockey: C. Lemaire
• Expert Picks: Received a unanimous “◎” (top pick) rating from all four experts: Miki Yoshida, Shigenori Hayashi, Tetsu Yoshioka, and the main paper.
• Training: Received the highest evaluation of “superb stride” in her final workout (11/5 Miho W). Also showed consistently high performance with “sharp finish, first to the line” in her 10/30 workout.
• Pedigree: Sire: Kitasan Black / Damsire: Rulership

Deep Dive into Stable Comments:
The comment from the stable (Trainer Miyata), “on a different scale,” transcends a simple “in good condition.” It’s a public declaration that the stable believes this horse’s raw talent—her very “caliber”—is in a class of its own. This sense of scale is strongly supported by her pedigree. The Kitasan Black x Rulership cross is one of modern Japanese racing’s golden combinations for “stamina x power.” Tokyo’s long straight and the distance extension from 1800m to 2400m will be the perfect stage for her to show her true potential. Furthermore, securing C. Lemaire as jockey suggests she is a top-priority horse for owner Silk Racing, indicating extremely high expectations from the stable.

Contender: (10) L’Avenue (Colt)

Data Analysis:

• Stable: Ritto – Yasuo Tomomichi
• Jockey: Keita Tosaki
• Expert Picks: All four experts unanimously rated him “○” (contender). The consensus is that if any horse can beat Mirage Noir, it’s this one.
• Training: Highly rated for “sharp movement” in his final workout (11/5 Ritto Turf). Also rated “sharp movement” in his 10/29 workout at Ritto CW, showing he is in perfect condition despite the long transport ahead.
• Pedigree: Sire: Lord Kanaloa / Damsire: Ghostzapper

Deep Dive into Stable Comments:
It’s significant that a top western stable like Tomomichi’s is making the trip from Ritto to Tokyo Racecourse for a debut at this time of year. This shows the stable’s strong confidence that the horse is suited for Tokyo, even with the risk of “shipping.” Trainer Tomomichi’s comments, “exceptional propulsion” and “the wide Tokyo course will suit him,” clearly explain the reason for this strategic expedition. He believes the horse’s high propulsion (engine performance) and long stride are best utilized on the vast Tokyo course rather than a smaller track. If Mirage Noir is the “stamina type,” this one is the “speed x power type.” The Lord Kanaloa x Ghostzapper pedigree holds the potential for both early maturity and explosive speed.

Tokyo 5R Prediction Points

The key to this race is the “clash of classic-level talents.” Will Mirage Noir’s “scale” overcome L’Avenue’s “propulsion”? For betting, the two favorites are highly reliable, but it would be wise to also consider (11) Erugurace (Jockey: T. Yokoyama), a daughter of Epiphaneia, as a potential dark horse.

【Tokyo 4R 2YO Maiden Dirt 1300m】 – A Dirt Monster Emerges? Japan vs. USA Pedigrees

A short-distance dirt race at Tokyo. This race features an American-bred horse who posted a phenomenal workout time against a horse from Japan’s elite dirt bloodlines.

Top Pick: (16) (Imp) Purnabhadra (Colt)

Data Analysis:

• Stable: Ritto – Hideyuki Mori
• Jockey: Akira Sugawara
• Expert Picks: Three experts gave him a “◎”, making him the overwhelming favorite.
• Training: The comment “phenomenal time last week” refers to his time on the Ritto uphill track on 11/2 (Sun): 50.6s – 37.3s – 25.0s – 12.9s. It is extraordinary for a 2-year-old maiden to post a 50-second time on the hill at this time of year.
• Pedigree: Sire: Authentic / Damsire: Curlin

Deep Dive into Stable Comments:
This horse’s pedigree is pure “American dirt royalty.” Sired by Authentic (Kentucky Derby winner) out of a dam by Curlin (US Horse of the Year), he has the bloodline to potentially dominate Japan’s dirt scene. However, the comments from Assistant Trainer Ryo Shimizu (Mori Stable) are not entirely optimistic: “He has good ability, but… he spooks on the course… we’ll see how he does in a real race.” This suggests his performance on the straight uphill training track may not directly translate to a race with turns. The Mori stable is known for handling imported horses well, but they also debut horses with temperament risks, and this comment seems to be an honest admission of that concern.

Contender: (5) Ganda (Colt)

Data Analysis:

• Stable: Miho – Makoto Saito
• Jockey: Takeshi Yokoyama
• Expert Picks: Considered the main rival to Purnabhadra, with one “◎” and multiple second/third picks.
• Training: His “great movement, leading and finishing first” in the 11/5 (Wed) Miho W workout shows he is also in top condition.
• Pedigree: Sire: Hokko Tarumae / Damsire: Orfevre

Deep Dive into Stable Comments:
If Purnabhadra represents “American” elite blood, Ganda represents “Japanese” elite dirt blood. Sired by Hokko Tarumae (10 Dirt G1 wins) out of a dam by Orfevre (Triple Crown winner), his pedigree strongly suggests power, stamina, and suitability for Japanese dirt. Trainer Makoto Saito’s comments, “his conditioning has improved with the extra week” and “he’s a horse with a chance,” indicate he believes Ganda can win even against a strong opponent. The choice of jockey Takeshi Yokoyama also signals they are serious about winning.

Tokyo 4R Prediction Points

This race is a classic “raw talent vs. polish” matchup. Purnabhadra’s workout time (50.6s) is undeniable proof of his talent, but he carries a temperament risk. In contrast, Ganda is solid across the board—pedigree, training, and jockey—and may have the edge in terms of being race-ready.

【Kyoto 5R 2YO Maiden Turf 2000m】 – A Festival of Bloodlines for the Classic Distance

The Kyoto Turf 2000m, a gateway to the classics. This race is shaping up to be a competitive contest among three talented horses.

Horse to Watch #1: (3) Admire Shura (Filly)

Data Analysis:

• Stable: Ritto – Yasuo Tomomichi
• Jockey: C. Demuro
• Expert Picks: One of the top contenders with two “◎” picks.
• Training: Received high praise for “light-footed” movement in her final workout (11/5 Ritto Turf), where she was ridden by C. Demuro himself.
• Pedigree: Sire: Epiphaneia / Damsire: Heart’s Cry (Dam: Admire Miyabi)

Deep Dive into Stable Comments:
The Epiphaneia x Heart’s Cry cross is a classic combination known for stamina and endurance. Her dam, Admire Miyabi, was a G2 winner, making her pedigree arguably the best in the field. A key comment from Trainer Tomomichi is “she seems to suit light turf.” While her pedigree suggests power and stamina, the stable feels a “lightness” in her physique, indicating she may be better suited for a speed duel on a fast track rather than a heavy one.

Horse to Watch #2: (4) Sound Move (Colt)

Data Analysis:

• Stable: Ritto – Takashi Saito
• Jockey: Taisei Danno
• Expert Picks: Shares the top billing with Admire Shura, receiving one “◎” and three “○” picks.
• Training: Rated “above average” in his final workout (11/5 Ritto CW). In his 10/29 workout, he led and finished ahead of Tagano Elpida (an older open-class horse), suggesting strong competitive spirit.
• Pedigree: Sire: Real Steel / Damsire: Screen Hero

Deep Dive into Stable Comments:
Trainer Takashi Saito’s comment about his “good back and canter” praises the horse’s fundamental athleticism and balance. These are crucial qualities for staying power over 2000m and beyond, and likely contributed to his ability to finish ahead of an open-class horse in training.

Horse to Watch #3: (1) Ho O Motive (Colt)

Data Analysis:

• Stable: Ritto – Yoshito Yahagi
• Jockey: Ryusei Sakai
• Expert Picks: Opinions are divided among experts, with one “◎” and one “△” (dark horse).
• Pedigree: Sire: Saturnalia / Damsire: Harbinger

Deep Dive into Stable Comments:
Assistant Trainer Araki from the Yahagi stable commented, “He still has some looseness and immaturity, but… he’s definitely up to standard.” This indicates that while the horse has high potential, he is not yet fully developed physically or mentally. Interestingly, his “Saturnalia x Harbinger” pedigree is identical to Guerreiro in the Kyoto 6R. The fact that the stable has chosen to debut them at different distances—2000m (this horse) and 1400m (Guerreiro)—highlights their individual differences, suggesting this one is seen as a middle-to-long distance prospect.

Kyoto 5R Prediction Points

The theme here is “pedigree potential vs. current readiness.” Admire Shura, with the most illustrious pedigree and nimble training movements, is the central figure. However, Sound Move’s race-ready performance against an older, open-class horse should not be underestimated.

Other Maiden Races to Watch (Tokyo 6R, Fukushima 5R, Kyoto 6R)

【Tokyo 6R 2YO Maiden Turf 1400m】 – Battle of Speed Pedigrees

• (1) Planetary Hour (Filly, K. Kato Stable): With three “◎” expert picks, her condition is excellent. Her training was described as a “crisp run,” and the stable expects a good turn of foot, commenting “she seems to have a kick.” Although her Drefong x Twining pedigree is dirt-oriented, she is expected to handle a speed duel on turf.
• (8) Brick a Black (Colt, N. Takagi Stable): The main paper’s top pick. His pedigree, by Bricks and Mortar out of a Black Tide dam, is suited for middle distances on turf. His training was noted for his “eye-catching physique,” and the stable calls him a “turf race type,” hinting he may perform even better in a real race than in training.

【Fukushima 5R 2YO Maiden Turf 1200m】 – Short Course Speed Duel

• (8) Divine Sky (Colt, S. Tajima Stable): The favorite, with three “◎” picks. He inherits speed from his sire, Matera Sky, and is in “good condition.” However, the biggest concern is the stable’s comment: “He’s not very quick out of the gate.” This could be a fatal flaw in a 1200m race at Fukushima.
• (9) Mozu V (Colt, K. Fujioka Stable): The main paper’s top pick. In contrast, his stable explicitly states, “He starts well and should be ready to go from his first race.” He clocked a blistering 10.9 seconds for the final furlong in his last workout. If he can leverage his starting advantage, an upset is very possible.

Prediction Point: A clear contrast between the favorite with gate issues (Divine Sky) and a contender who starts fast (Mozu V).

【Kyoto 6R 2YO Maiden Turf 1400m】 – Showdown of Two Talents

• (10) Guerreiro (Colt, I. Konno Stable): Two “◎” expert picks. Despite a middle-distance pedigree (Saturnalia x Harbinger), he debuts at 1400m. The stable rates his potential highly, commenting, “You can feel his talent from his movements.”
• (8) Bice Mare (Colt, Y. Tomomichi Stable): One “◎” pick, with Yutaka Take as jockey. His pedigree (Lord Kanaloa x Siyouni) is geared towards European sprints. The stable’s comment “he’s very forward-going” and his tendency to be “a bit keen in training” suggest a typical sprinter’s temperament. How the jockey manages him will be key.

Conclusion: Summary of Nov 8, 2025 Maiden Race Prediction Points

After analyzing all six maiden races for Saturday, the following three “prediction points” have emerged for building a betting strategy:

1. The Importance of Reading Between the Lines of Stable Comments:
   High praise like “on a different scale” (Mirage Noir) or “exceptional propulsion” (L’Avenue) can be taken as a guarantee of high potential. Conversely, specific concerns like “not quick from the gate” (Divine Sky) or “spooks on the course” (Purnabhadra) provide strong reasons to doubt a popular horse.
2. Identifying Mismatches Between Pedigree and Training:
   In Tokyo 6R, Planetary Hour has a dirt pedigree but shows “sharpness” suited for turf in training. Similarly, Brick a Black has a turf pedigree but his training was unremarkable; trusting the stable’s “race type” comment is a key decision point.
3. Tactical Advantages in “Two-Horse Race” Scenarios:
   In Fukushima 5R, the favorite (Divine Sky) has a clear weakness (“gate issues”), while the contender (Mozu V) has a tactical advantage (“starts well”). This is information that holds more value than the odds might suggest.

Final Predictions and Recommended Bets

This article has thoroughly analyzed the key prediction points and horses to watch for the November 8th maiden races based on data. Our “Final Predictions” and “Recommended Bets,” which also incorporate last-minute factors like changes in horse weight, paddock condition, and the latest odds, are available at the link below. A future G1 winner might emerge from these races. Be sure to check out the expert’s final conclusions!▼▼ See the Final Predictions Here! ▼▼