A data-driven analysis of “game-changing” horses after a second run and gelding. We break down the 2025 Muromachi Stakes (Kyoto Dirt 1200m) using training data and stable comments to find the winning edge.
Key Takeaways
- The favorite, Star Turn, has received the highest “flawless” rating in training evaluations and is in perfect condition.
- A discrepancy exists for Bonanza: the stable is confident, but the training team notes he is “still a bit heavy.”
- Kazugoltis (won his last race after being gelded) and Kitano’s Edge (known to improve on his second run back) are key horses with clear upside.
- Lightweight Smart Eye (52kg) and inside-drawn Meisho Horen are likely to control the pace, potentially creating opportunities for closers.
Point 1: Star Turn’s “Flawless” Condition
Star Turn (Colt, 4yo, Yuga Kawada, 56kg), the predicted favorite at 2.9 odds, stands out for his perfect improvement since his last race. After his 3rd place finish in the Fujinomori Stakes, jockey Yuga Kawada commented, “He ran well and I feel he’s getting back to form.” Assistant trainer Mitsuya also noted, “We saw signs of recovery,” treating the race as a stepping stone.
Now, his training evaluation is exceptional. His final workout was described as “currently in his best shape ever,” and he is the only horse in the field with an upward arrow (↗) indicating improved condition. The training analysis raves, “A more aggressive training regimen than before. Powerful propulsion, driving off his forelegs. His physique is even more toned. Flawless.” Having regained his form in the last race and reaching peak condition for this one, he is undoubtedly the one to beat.
Point 2: The “Gap” in Bonanza’s Assessment
In contrast to Star Turn, Bonanza (Colt, 5yo, Taiga Danno, 57kg), the second favorite at 5.8 odds, shows a slight “difference in opinion” between his stable and the training team. This is his first race since the Tennozan Stakes in spring (4th place). Trainer Shono evaluated his last run positively, saying, “Only a 0.1-second difference. It wasn’t a bad performance.” Regarding his return, he expressed confidence: “The jockey has pushed him hard for the last two weeks, he’s lost the excess weight and his body is ready.”
However, the training data tells a different story. While he clocked a fast 49.8 seconds in his final workout on the Ritto hill course, the analysis notes, “Even with a jockey aboard, he tired at the end of a 49-second run. Seems a bit heavy still. This final workout should tighten him up.” While the stable says “excess weight is gone,” the training team points out he’s “a bit heavy.” This slight discrepancy could affect his final push at the finish line, making his condition on race day crucial to watch.
Point 3: Two “Game-Changing” Candidates
The appeal of a handicap race lies in the potential for a “turnaround” from the previous race. Here, we focus on two horses that data suggests could show drastic improvement.
Kazugoltis: Reaching Full Potential After Gelding
Kazugoltis (Gelding, 4yo, Junya Nishimura, 54kg) scored a brilliant victory in his last race, the Sotobo Stakes. The key factor was being “gelded.” A note from his last race stated, “Showed a stunning turnaround due to the gelding effect,” and jockey Akira Sugawara praised him, “The gelding must have had an effect; he’s a very good horse.” This is not a temporary boost. Trainer Sho Nishizono confirmed his mental growth and sustained form: “He’s improved since being gelded, and his last race was excellent… He’s become more forward-going and is in great shape now.” With a favorable handicap of 54kg, he has a strong chance of being competitive even in this higher class.
Kitano’s Edge: A Classic “Second Run Improver”
Despite being the third favorite (6.1 odds), Kitano’s Edge (Colt, 4yo, Yoshihiro Furukawa, 55kg) finished 8th in the Fujinomori Stakes. However, this horse is a textbook example of one that “improves on the second run back.” Trainer Hata stated, “He’s a typical second-run improver. His enthusiasm in training has picked up significantly,” confirming the last race was a prep run. Backing this up, the training analysis notes, “Last week, he pushed from the start and significantly beat his personal best. He’s leaner and much quicker.” If his odds are inflated due to his last finish, he could be an excellent value bet.
Point 4: The Lightweight Pace-Setters
Reading the race pace is essential at Kyoto’s 1200m dirt track. This race features horses that will push for the lead and others looking to leverage a light handicap.
- Smart Eye (Filly, 5yo, Kanta Taguchi, 52kg): Carries the lightest weight of 52kg. Trainer Terashima has declared their strategy: “I’m glad the handicap stayed the same. A front-running style suits her best.” Her speed is highly regarded.
- Meisho Horen (Colt, 4yo, Shun Hamanaka, 55kg): A fast horse that can take advantage of the prime No. 1 post position. He took the lead in his last race, and it’s highly likely these two will dictate the pace.
If these two duel and set a fast pace, it will create an opportunity for horses closing from the back. Alpha Mom (Mare, 6yo, Tomo Kitamura, 56.5kg), the only horse noted as “likely to benefit from the pace,” could be a surprise contender if the race unfolds in her favor.
Full Field Analysis: Training & Stable Comments
| No. | Horse Name | Training Eval (Brief) | Training Analysis | Stable Comments |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meisho Horen | Slightly improving (→) | Still improving but calm. | Condition unchanged. We’ll see how he does in open class. |
| 2 | Arte Veloce | Powerful stride (→) | Powerful. If he runs like he trains. | Switching to dirt as he pulls on turf. |
| 3 | A Tracks | Sharp movement (→) | Moves well. Question is if he can stay focused. | Lively and in good spirits. Hopeful. |
| 4 | Star Turn | Peak condition (↗) | Excellent propulsion, toned physique. Flawless. | Showing signs of recovery. Progressing well. |
| 5 | Namura Frank | Still getting fit (→) | Far from his usual agility. Looks tired. | He is fit enough to run. |
| 6 | Peptide Yamato | Dull response (→) | Lacks a finishing kick. Training seems heavy. | No issues with fitness. Stable condition. |
| 7 | Alpha Mom | Lacks sharpness (→) | First race in a while. Response is dull for her. | Handicap is heavy but she always runs her race. |
| 8 | Lord Eclair | Lively movement (→) | His spirit is undeniable. | 1200m is a bit rushed for him. |
| 9 | Isla Anejo | Movement is decent (→) | A bit unfocused and lost concentration. | Last year’s winner. Likes the Kyoto course. |
| 10 | Kitano’s Edge | Training steadily (→) | Broke personal best. Quicker now. | Improves on second run. More eager to run. |
| 11 | Kazugoltis | Steady stride (→) | More focused than last race. Good form. | Improved after gelding. Condition is good. |
| 12 | Lord Radius | Not much change (→) | Lacks fighting spirit. | 55kg is a good weight. If he can get a forward position. |
| 13 | Etienne | Fit after a break (→) | Moving sharply. Can perform. | Well-prepared. Condition improving with colder weather. |
| 14 | Smart Eye | Doesn’t show much in training (→) | It’s her pattern not to move well in workouts. | Good that weight is 52kg. Wants to run her own pace. |
| 15 | Nanao | Always moves well (→) | Good spirit. | Should be more used to the shorter 1200m distance. |
| 16 | Bonanza | Fast time, but… (→) | Seems a bit heavy still. | Excess weight is gone. His body is ready. |
Conclusion: Final Predictions for Muromachi S 2025
In this article, we analyzed the key prediction points for the Muromachi Stakes 2025 at Kyoto Dirt 1200m, based on the latest official data.
- Star Turn: In perfect condition with a “flawless” training evaluation.
- Bonanza: Stable is confident, but the training team hints at slight fitness concerns.
- Kazugoltis & Kitano’s Edge: Have clear, data-backed reasons for potential improvement (“gelding effect” and “second run back”).
- Smart Eye: Poised to control the pace with a lightweight 52kg handicap.
For our final conclusion, top picks, and recommended betting slips based on this detailed analysis, please check the expert’s final verdict at the link below.
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