The Miyako Stakes (G3) is a crucial race shaping the year-end dirt G1 scene. Top contenders like Teio Sho runner-up Outrange and the consistent Lord Cronne are set to compete. This article provides an expert deep-dive into the race, analyzing the Kyoto Dirt 1800m course, historical data, and the current condition of each horse based on their final workouts.
- Key Takeaways
- Keys to Conquering the 2025 Miyako Stakes: Course & Trends
- In-Depth Analysis of Contenders: A Look at Final Workouts
Key Takeaways
- The Kyoto Dirt 1800m is a complex course that tests early speed, stamina, and acceleration.
- Historical data shows 4-year-olds are dominant, with a tendency for upsets and a clear advantage for Ritto Training Center horses.
- Outrange, with a 2nd place finish in the Teio Sho, is showing G1-caliber form in his workouts.
- Lord Cronne displayed exceptional sharpness in his workout, signaling he’s peaking and on a strong upward trend.
- Up-and-coming horses like Double Heart Bond and Simon Xanadu are in excellent condition and could disrupt the established hierarchy.
Keys to Conquering the 2025 Miyako Stakes: Course & Trends
To successfully handicap the Miyako Stakes, understanding the unique characteristics of the Kyoto Dirt 1800m course and the historical trends of the race is essential. These two factors clearly define the abilities required for a horse to succeed.
The Kyoto Dirt 1800m: A Three-Phase Test of Early Speed
The Kyoto Dirt 1800m is a special course that demands a complex blend of abilities, not just raw speed or stamina. Its characteristics can be broken down into three distinct phases.
Phase 1: The Battle for Position in the First 286 Meters
The race starts in front of the main grandstand. With only about 286 meters to the first turn, a fierce battle for early position unfolds immediately. Horses in the inner gates have a statistical advantage as they can enter the turn without losing ground. Conversely, those in the outer gates risk being forced wide, expending extra energy early on. However, the record for gate 8 is not poor, likely because it allows a horse to run its own race without interference. Regardless, securing a favorable position in this initial skirmish is the first major hurdle.
Phase 2: The Backstretch Incline Stamina Test
After the first two turns, the backstretch features a gentle but long 3.0-meter incline leading to the third corner. This section relentlessly saps the stamina of horses that overexerted themselves in the early positioning battle. The ability to conserve energy and maintain rhythm here is crucial. It’s a true “stamina test” that challenges both the jockey’s pace judgment and the horse’s endurance.
Phase 3: The Downhill Slingshot for Acceleration
Past the highest point of the course, a downhill slope leads through the fourth turn and into the flat final stretch. Horses can use this descent to accelerate with less effort, building momentum for the finish. This “slingshot effect” often results in faster closing times at Kyoto compared to other tracks. A horse that is well-positioned near the top of the hill and can accelerate smoothly from there will gain a decisive advantage in the home stretch.
In conclusion, conquering this course requires a high-level fusion of three different abilities: a quick start, the stamina to handle the mid-race incline, and the agility to accelerate on the downhill. This multifaceted perspective is a critical standard for evaluating each horse.
Past 10 Years Data Analysis: A History of Upsets & Common Traits of Winners
The Miyako Stakes has produced numerous upsets throughout its history, a trend clearly supported by the data.
Age Group: 4-Year-Olds in Their Prime
Over the past 10 years, 4-year-olds have won four times, boasting the best win and in-the-money percentages. This suggests that the physical and mental peak of a horse aligns perfectly with the demands of this race. Horses fitting this trend this year deserve special attention.
Favorites vs. Longshots: A Race Prone to Upsets
The favorite’s win rate is a mere 22.2%, indicating they are far from a sure bet. In contrast, horses ranked 4th to 6th in popularity have an excellent record with 2 wins and 4 second-place finishes. Longshots have also triumphed, such as 11th favorite Sunrise Hope in 2022. This shows that course suitability and race-day condition are often more important than past performance. The race frequently sees moderate to major upsets, requiring a flexible approach to handicapping.
Training Center: The Dominance of Ritto Horses
Horses from the Ritto Training Center have won 8 of the last 10 runnings, far outpacing the single victory from the Miho Training Center. This is likely due to familiarity with the course and less travel fatigue. With most of this year’s entrants also based at Ritto, this data point is a cornerstone of any analysis.
In-Depth Analysis of Contenders: A Look at Final Workouts
Now, let’s analyze the condition of the top contenders individually. The final workout, conducted a week before the race, is the most critical indicator of a horse’s fitness. We will delve into these workouts from an expert’s perspective to reveal each horse’s current state.
Top Contenders’ Final Workout Evaluation Summary
Before the detailed analysis, here is a summary of the final workout evaluations for the main contenders. This will serve as a guide for comparing their conditions.
| Horse Name | Workout Date & Course | Key Times (6F-1F / 5F-1F) | Official Comment | Expert Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outrange | 10/30 (Thu) · Ritto CW | 80.5 – 11.5 | Powerful stride | G1-class presence. Moved strongly under a heavy load, showing high-level stability. |
| Lord Cronne | 10/29 (Wed) · Ritto CW | 66.7 – 11.3 (5F-1F) | Improved with this work | Exceptional finishing kick. On a sharp upward trend; a workout that signals full maturity. |
| Double Heart Bond | 10/30 (Thu) · Ritto Uphill | 52.4 – 12.1 (4F-1F) | Good body and movement | Showed powerful action on the uphill track. Her physical development and strength stand out. |
| Simon Xanadu | 10/30 (Thu) · Ritto CW | 83.0 – 11.6 | Impressive physique | As the comment suggests, his physique is eye-catching, and his movement is powerful. Truly hitting his stride. |
(Note: Times are based on official announcements)
Outrange – A Litmus Test for G1-Caliber Talent
Overall Assessment
He proved his top-class ability with a second-place finish in his last start, the Teio Sho (G1). While his talent is undeniable, the challenge is whether he can replicate that performance on the tricky Kyoto course against specialists.
Final Workout Analysis
On October 30th, jockey Fuma Kozaki rode him in a workout on the Ritto woodchip course. He started 2.1 seconds ahead of the older open-class horse Eishin Wand. He was pushed energetically throughout and driven hard in the stretch as instructed. He clocked 80.5 seconds for 6 furlongs, 65.9 for 5 furlongs, and a final furlong of 11.5, finishing on even terms with his partner. The key takeaway from this workout is not just the time, but the quality. The fact that he maintained his form and earned the comment “powerful stride” while being pushed hard is highly valuable. It shows he can run efficiently and powerfully under intense pressure, a testament to the mental and physical strength required for G1 races. Moving on par with an open-class horse confirms his excellent condition. This was a flawless preparation, exuding the presence of a true class horse.
Previous Race Evaluation
His last race was the Teio Sho, a pinnacle event for dirt horses. He ran a close second to the winner, Mickey Fight, against a field of seasoned veterans. After the race, jockey Kohei Matsuyama commented, “It’s frustrating. He ran a great race against this field and showed a powerful stride,” praising his ability. A performance of this caliber on a G1 stage objectively proves his talent is at the top of his generation.
Pedigree Analysis
Sired by Regalo (a son of Bernardini) out of a King Kamehameha mare. His pedigree is a superb blend of powerful American speed from his sire line and the stamina and adaptability to Japanese tracks from his damsire, King Kamehameha. The Kyoto Dirt 1800m, which demands stamina for the mid-race incline and speed for the finish, should theoretically be an excellent fit for his bloodlines.
Lord Cronne – A Consistent Force Reaching His Peak
Overall Assessment
A consistent contender who has always been in the mix in graded stakes races. He now appears to be fully maturing, and his latest workout strongly showcased his development. The time is ripe for him to capture his first major title.
Final Workout Analysis
On October 29th, he worked on the Ritto woodchip course with his race-day jockey, Kazuo Yokoyama. He started 0.3 seconds behind the older open-class horse Sekito Bio East and responded sharply when driven hard in the stretch. His overall time was fast—66.7 seconds for 5 furlongs, 51.4 for 4, and 36.4 for 3—but his final furlong of 11.3 seconds was particularly outstanding. This is an exceptional time for a woodchip workout and speaks volumes about his current form. The official comment, “improved with this work,” suggests this was not just a maintenance gallop but a workout that elevated him to a new level. Although he finished a neck behind his partner, that horse is an open-class turf runner, so the time and quality of movement are far more important. This workout has likely brought him to his absolute peak, both mentally and physically. In terms of improvement, he deserves the highest rating in the field.
Previous Race Evaluation
He finished second in his last start, the Elm Stakes (G3). Despite a tough trip where other horses made early moves on him, he fought on tenaciously to the end. Jockey Yusuke Fujioka reflected, “He ran a strong, orthodox race, but the winner had a perfect trip saving ground on the inside.” This comment is crucial; it implies he wasn’t beaten on ability but by the race’s flow and positioning. To run such a strong, proactive race and finish a close second is a performance of a horse that was strong in defeat, reaffirming his G3-level talent.
Pedigree Analysis
Sired by Leontes (a successor to King Kamehameha) out of a Brian’s Time mare. This combination of speed and racing sense from his sire with the power and stamina from his damsire is perfect for middle-distance dirt races. The toughness inherited from Brian’s Time will be a significant asset on the demanding backstretch incline at Kyoto.
Double Heart Bond – The Talented Filly on a Hot Streak
Overall Assessment
A rapidly improving 4-year-old filly with a near-perfect record of 5 wins and 1 second from 6 starts. While her latest workout was excellent, this race against top-tier older male horses will be a true test of her abilities.
Final Workout Analysis
On October 30th, she worked on the Ritto uphill track with an assistant trainer. She started 0.4 seconds behind the 2-year-old maiden Danon Seahawk and was pushed strongly to the finish. She clocked 52.4 seconds for 4 furlongs, with a final furlong of 12.1, powerfully pulling 0.4 seconds clear of her partner. Uphill workouts are primarily for building power. Clocking a fast final furlong of 12.1 on an incline demonstrates her exceptional power and turn of foot. The comment “good body and movement” confirms that she is physically well-developed for a filly and that her action is high quality. This was a highly-rated workout that proved she has the strength necessary to compete on dirt.
Previous Race Evaluation
Her only defeat came in her last start, a second-place finish in the Breeders’ Gold Cup (JpnIII), a graded stakes on the regional circuit. This showed she is competitive at the graded stakes level. Her previous five wins were all dominant, hinting at immense untapped potential. The competition is tougher here, but racing with a light weight of 55kg will be a significant advantage.
Pedigree Analysis
Sired by Kizuna (a Derby winner by Deep Impact) out of a mare by the American champion sprinter Smoke Glacken. Her pedigree combines the stamina and class from her sire with the pure speed from her damsire. This speed could be a major weapon in the early battle for position on Kyoto’s fast dirt track.
Simon Xanadu – The Up-and-Comer Hitting His Stride
Overall Assessment
The very definition of a horse that is “coming into his own.” His last race was impressive, and his workout was equally superb. The fact that his connections believe he still has room to improve is his biggest asset, and he has the potential to shake up the existing order.
Final Workout Analysis
On October 30th, he worked on the Ritto woodchip course with jockey Goken Namba. He started 0.3 seconds ahead of the older open-class horse Mystery Way and was pushed strongly in the stretch, finishing well. He clocked 83.0 seconds for 6 furlongs with a final furlong of 11.6. The most noteworthy part of this workout is the official comment: “impressive physique.” This is one of the highest compliments a trackman can give a horse’s physical condition, indicating he has fully matured. This visual assessment is backed up by his sharp finish and solid overall time. It was a flawless workout, showing he is entering the race in peak physical and mental condition.
Previous Race Evaluation
He ran an excellent second in the Sirius Stakes (G3) in his first attempt at a graded stakes race, finishing close to the winner. After the race, jockey Kenichi Ikezoe commented, “He ran a great race for his first time up in class against this field. He’s still a bit green, so there’s room for improvement.” The significance of this comment cannot be overstated. For a jockey to feel there is still more to come after a strong graded stakes performance suggests the horse has a very high ceiling. His last race was just a stepping stone, and further improvement can be expected.
Pedigree Analysis
Sired by Asia Express (a son of Henny Hughes) out of a mare by the versatile turf and dirt star Agnes Digital. His sire line is a powerful, precocious dirt pedigree, while his damsire imparts adaptability and class. This background provides a strong foundation for success on the dirt. His recent surge in form is undoubtedly the result of his latent pedigree potential coming to full bloom.
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