November 18, 2025 | Kawasaki Race Course
Kawasaki Race 01 | Discrepancy between AI and Stable Evaluations
Focuses on “bargain horses” where AI’s high expected return evaluation contrasts with cautious stable comments.
Featured Horse: No. 8 Ecoro Rukina
◎ No. 8 Ecoro Rukina
Quantitative Analysis (AI Evaluation)
Ecoro Rukina has an estimated winning probability of 11.1% (3rd) and a place probability of 47.1% (4th). However, it leads in “AI Predicted Expected Return” categories: Overall (293, 1st), Win (169, 1st), and Trifecta (124, 1st). AI identifies it as a “talented longshot” significantly undervalued by the market.
Qualitative Analysis (Stable & Training)
Trainer Kiyoshi Arai (Funabashi) provides cautious comments, noting the horse “lacks a decisive finish” and “will need help from the race development.” The training report indicates “training held back,” suggesting a lack of aggressive winning intent.
Ecoro Rukina exemplifies a “bargain horse” where cautious stable comments and reserved training have lowered its odds, maximizing AI’s calculated expected value. This horse is an optimal target for bettors who trust AI’s quantitative analysis over qualitative stable evaluations.
| Horse (Stall) | Win Rate (%) | Place Rate (%) | Overall Expected Return | Win Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecoro Rukina (8) | 11.1 (3rd) | 47.1 (4th) | 293 (1st) | 169 (1st) |
| Imortel (10) | 39.3 (1st) | 71.6 (1st) | 195 (3rd) | 99 (4th) |
| Solis Dies (7) | 30.8 (2nd) | 66.7 (2nd) | 145 (7th) | 72 (8th) |
| Narino Bogart (6) | 10.0 (4th) | 52.6 (3rd) | 211 (2nd) | 109 (3rd) |
Kawasaki Race 02 Wombat Stakes | Value Horse with Aligned AI and Stable Evaluations
A value bet where AI’s expected return evaluation aligns with the stable’s optimistic stance.
Featured Horse: No. 10 Sasakin Poppy
◎ No. 10 Sasakin Poppy
Quantitative Analysis (AI Evaluation)
Sasakin Poppy’s estimated winning probability is 8.3% (5th). However, it ranks 1st in “AI Predicted Overall Expected Return” (183) and “AI Predicted Win Expected Return” (95), indicating significant undervaluation by the market.
Qualitative Analysis (Stable & Training)
Trainer Jun Murata expresses optimism, stating, “The last race was a close call,” and “With the right flow, it could win.” The horse showed “light movement” in its final workout, indicating good condition.
This race pits AI’s “most likely to win” horse against its “most bargain” horse. Sasakin Poppy is supported by both AI’s expected value and optimistic stable comments/training, making it a reliable “bargain horse.”
| Horse (Stall) | Win Rate (%) | Overall Expected Return | Win Expected Return | Trifecta Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sasakin Poppy (10) | 8.3 (5th) | 183 (1st) | 95 (1st) | 88 (2nd) |
| Tanoshisa (11) | 44.2 (1st) | 169 (3rd) | 88 (2nd) | 81 (4th) |
| Pat Won (3) | 20.2 (2nd) | 162 (4th) | 79 (3rd) | 83 (3rd) |
| Onnea (6) | 1.5 (8th) | 177 (2nd) | 76 (4th) | 101 (1st) |
Kawasaki Race 04 Banrai Stakes | AI-Recommended Rebound Horse
An AI-recommended rebound horse with clear, identifiable reasons for its previous defeat.
Featured Horse: No. 12 Love and Beans
◎ No. 12 Love and Beans
Quantitative Analysis (AI Evaluation)
Love and Beans has an estimated winning probability of 11.1% (3rd). However, it ranks 1st in “AI Predicted Overall Expected Return” (189) and “AI Predicted Trifecta Expected Return” (93), and 2nd in “AI Predicted Win Expected Return” (96), indicating high bargain value.
Qualitative Analysis (Stable & Training)
Trainer Mizukami states, “The last race was just a matter of not being able to run its own race, and its condition is not bad.” This implies the previous defeat was situational. The training report notes “light training is sufficient,” confirming good condition.
Market odds are likely to be lower than Love and Beans’ actual ability due to its previous defeat. Both AI and the stable agree the previous defeat can be disregarded. If the horse can “run smoothly during the race,” a strong performance is anticipated.
| Horse (Stall) | Win Rate (%) | Overall Expected Return | Win Expected Return | Trifecta Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Love and Beans (12) | 11.1 (3rd) | 189 (1st) | 96 (2nd) | 93 (1st) |
| Sarasa Emperor (2) | 41.4 (1st) | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Kawasaki Race 10 Sirius Stakes | Grade S Reliable Banker Horse
The feature race, recommended for its reliability rather than bargain value.
Featured Horse: No. 9 Admire Asia
◎ No. 9 Admire Asia
Data Analysis (Estimated Probabilities)
Admire Asia’s “estimated winning probability” is 34% and “estimated place probability” is 64%, the highest among the four recommended horses, indicating high reliability.
Qualitative Analysis (Stable & Training)
Trainer Sakai gives Admire Asia the highest rating, “◎ (double circle),” and labels it a “win contender.” Comments indicate suitability for the course and good condition: “No issues with left-handed turns based on previous run,” and “In good condition, so expect another strong race.” The workout report states “maintaining good condition,” and recent workouts were evaluated as “excellent preparation,” confirming peak form.
Despite the lack of AI expected value data, Admire Asia is recommended as a “reliable banker horse” (Grade S reliability) due to the convergence of high estimated winning probability (34%), the stable’s top rating (“◎ win contender”), and “excellent preparation” in training. This horse is recommended for its reliability.
No comparison table data was provided for this race.
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