Our analysis of the …
A Deep Dive into 15+ International Bookmakers
On November 4, 2025, the world’s premier staying race, the Melbourne Cup, will take place. This article provides a comprehensive comparison of the latest odds from bookmakers worldwide. We’ll conduct a data-driven analysis of the top contenders, examining the strengths and challenges of favorites like Caulfield Cup winner Half Yours and the top-weighted Al Riffa. In a wide-open field with no clear favorite, we uncover the insights you need to find true value in your bets.
On Tuesday, November 4, 2025, the 165th Lexus Melbourne Cup will unfold at Australia’s Flemington Racecourse. Contested over a grueling 3200m, this race, known as “the race that stops a nation,” is one of the most prestigious staying events in the world. This year’s betting market is led by a handful of top contenders, each with distinct strengths and significant hurdles to overcome. Here, we analyze the key players based on bookmaker evaluations.
Carrying the hopes of Australia is Half Yours, fresh off a victory in the G1 Caulfield Cup. Most bookmakers have him as the top favorite, with odds around 7.00. A favorable weight of 53kg and a strategic draw at gate 8 are major advantages. However, the formidable “Caulfield Cup curse” stands in his way. Winning both cups in the same year is exceptionally rare, forcing bettors to weigh his undeniable talent against a powerful historical jinx.
Al Riffa is considered the strongest challenger from Europe, with bookmakers offering odds between 8.00 and 8.50. His internationally proven team is a huge plus, but his biggest challenge is the top handicap of 59kg. A victory with such a heavy weight hasn’t occurred in over 50 years, making his attempt a battle against the “weight barrier” of history. The wide draw at gate 19 also poses a risk of increased stamina consumption.
From Australia’s top trainer, Chris Waller, comes Buckaroo. His strong performance in the prestigious Cox Plate proves his class, earning him high regard from bookmakers with odds around 9.00. The main question is his ability to handle the 3200m distance. He finished 9th in last year’s race, and whether his exceptional speed can be sustained over the long haul is the key factor determining his chances.
These two horses fit the profile of recent Melbourne Cup winners: “proven European stayers” with “favorable handicaps.” As the favorites face their own historical challenges, it’s entirely possible that a dark horse like one of these could steal the show.
The Melbourne Cup attracts global attention, and bookmakers offer a wide range of odds. Below is a comparison of win odds from major bookmakers. Please note that odds are subject to change and you should check the official sites for the latest information.
| Horse (Gate) | Ladbrokes | Neds | Paddy Power | Sky Bet | Races.com.au | Punters.com.au |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Al Riffa (19) | 8.00 | 8.00 | 6.50 | 6.50 | 7.00 | 8.50 |
| 2. Buckaroo (12) | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| 3. Arapaho (15) | 41.00 | 41.00 | 67.00 | 67.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| 4. Vauban (2) | 23.00 | 23.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 34.00 | 26.00 |
| 5. Chevalier Rose (5) | 35.00 | 35.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| 6. Presage Nocturne (9) | 8.50 | 8.50 | 8.00 | 8.00 | 9.00 | 8.50 |
| 7. Middle Earth (13) | 41.00 | 41.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| 8. Meydaan (22) | 18.00 | 18.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 13.00 | 19.00 |
| 9. Absurde (4) | 23.00 | 23.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 | 23.00 |
| 10. Flatten The Curve (17) | 21.00 | 21.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 41.00 | 21.00 |
| 11. Land Legend (16) | 81.00 | 81.00 | 101.00 | 101.00 | 101.00 | 81.00 |
| 12. Smokin’ Romans (11) | 81.00 | 81.00 | 101.00 | 101.00 | 101.00 | 81.00 |
| 13. Changingoftheguard (24) | 81.00 | 81.00 | 81.00 | 81.00 | 101.00 | 81.00 |
| 14. Half Yours (8) | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| 15. More Felons (23) | 41.00 | 41.00 | 67.00 | 67.00 | 51.00 | 41.00 |
| 16. Onesmoothoperator (6) | 23.00 | 23.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 23.00 |
| 17. Furthur (7) | 23.00 | 23.00 | 21.00 | 21.00 | 26.00 | 23.00 |
| 18. Parchment Party (3) | 51.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 | 51.00 |
| 19. Athabascan (1) | 81.00 | 81.00 | 81.00 | 81.00 | 101.00 | 81.00 |
| 20. Goodie Two Shoes (20) | 41.00 | 41.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 41.00 |
| 21. River Of Stars (14) | 17.00 | 17.00 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 17.00 | 17.00 |
| 22. Royal Supremacy (21) | 35.00 | 35.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 |
| 23. Torranzino (18) | 35.00 | 35.00 | 26.00 | 26.00 | 34.00 | 34.00 |
| 24. Valiant King (10) | 7.50 | 7.50 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 8.00 | 8.00 |
Note: Odds are based on early November 2025 data. Odds from Paddy Power and Sky Bet have been converted from fractional to decimal format.
This comparison chart offers more than just a list of numbers. By analyzing the market’s “money trail”—where the funds are flowing—we can gain deeper insights into the race.
It’s clear that the market has reached a consensus on a “Big Five.” Half Yours, Al Riffa, Valiant King, Buckaroo, and Presage Nocturne consistently have single-digit odds across all bookmakers, suggesting a high probability that the winner will come from this group. With no single dominant favorite, combination bets involving these horses will be very popular.
The next group to watch is the mid-range contenders with odds between 15.00 and 35.00. This includes talented horses like Meydaan, River Of Stars, Onesmoothoperator, and Furthur. Historically, the Melbourne Cup has often seen winners from this price bracket. Due to the handicap nature of the race, top-class favorites are burdened with heavy weights, creating opportunities for skilled horses with lighter loads to claim victory. One of the smartest betting strategies is to identify high-value horses within this group.
The most effective way to use this comparison chart is to find discrepancies, or “value gaps,” between bookmakers. For example, Vauban is listed at 23.00 by some bookmakers, while others offer 34.00. Such differences present a prime opportunity for bettors to secure the highest possible return on the same horse. By registering with multiple bookmakers and comparing odds just before the race, you can ensure you’re getting the most favorable terms for your bet.
The 2025 Melbourne Cup sees Australian star Half Yours and European powerhouse Al Riffa as the leading favorites, but both face significant historical hurdles. Our odds analysis reveals that while the “Big Five” are central to the race, the best value may lie within the 15.00 to 35.00 mid-range group, a trend supported by recent history. Challengers from Europe with light weights and from proven stables should always be considered a serious threat.
For more detailed analysis and final selections, we recommend consulting expert opinions.See Expert Final Picks (External Link)