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Kyoto Racecourse Top 10 Picks (Nov 15, 2025): Pro Analysis of Big Dream & Timeless Flare’s Reliability

November 15, 2025

Analyzing the track conditions at Kyoto Racecourse for November 15, 2025, we’ve selected 10 horses with high betting value based on professional prediction models (indices) and trackman insights. Considering the clear trends—closers favored on turf, front-runners on dirt—we provide a thorough breakdown of each horse’s ability, risks, and ‘Value Score’.

Key Takeaways

  • On Nov 15, 2025, Kyoto Racecourse favors closers on the turf and front-runners on a slow dirt track.
  • Horses with a high ‘Value Score’—a gap between pro indices and market popularity—offer great betting appeal, with GT Steer being a prime example.
  • Big Dream (Kyoto 9R) and Timeless Flare (Kyoto 4R) are highly rated by professionals, making them reliable cornerstone bets.
  • In the GII Daily Hai Nisai Stakes, Michael Barows has the potential for a major upset if the race develops favorably.
  • Gullvi (Kyoto 7R), whose characteristics perfectly match the track conditions, is set up to perform at their best.

Introduction: Autumn Track Trends at Kyoto and Today’s Strategy

Welcome to the third day of the fourth Kyoto race meeting on November 15, 2025. As the autumn racing season deepens, today’s track conditions present a critical factor that will shape betting strategies. By combining professional prediction models (indices), on-site trackman information, and the latest track data, we have carefully selected and analyzed the 10 most valuable horses of the day.

Today’s Track Trends (as of Friday morning, Nov 15)

  • Turf Course: The cushion value at 9 AM Friday was 10.8, indicating a “slightly firm” and fast track. However, analysis of recent weeks shows a trend where “closers from the outside are winning.” This suggests either the inside turf is wearing down, or the firm track is leading to intense front-runner battles, creating favorable conditions for horses coming from behind. We must focus on horses with a sharp closing kick from the outside, rather than simply backing inside front-runners.
  • Dirt Course: The moisture content at 10 AM Friday was low, resulting in a “time-consuming” and tough track that “fundamentally favors front-runners.” The demanding conditions sap the stamina of trailing horses, ultimately benefiting those who can maintain a forward position.

Today’s analysis is based on these clear track biases (Turf = Outside Closers, Dirt = Tough & Front-Runner Favored), using the Pro Favorite Index and the “Value Score”—which highlights discrepancies with market expectations—to dissect our 10 horses to watch.

Part 1: Value Indicated by the Index — High-Value Picks

Here, we analyze horses with a “Value Score” exceeding 200%, indicating the largest gap between market perception (projected popularity) and expert evaluation (Pro Favorite Index). These are essential picks for those seeking betting value.

1. [Kyoto 3R 2YO Maiden] GT Steer

Projected

2nd Favorite

Pro Index

46%

Value Score

316%

Trackman Ratings: Muta (▲) Nishimura (▲) Hirose (△)

GT Steer boasts today’s highest “Value Score” at an incredible 316%. Despite being the projected 2nd favorite, the professional model gives him an exceptionally high “Favorite Index” of 46%. This discrepancy likely stems from the stable’s concern that he “can be sluggish in a race.” However, they’ve enlisted jockey C. Demuro to address this. The stable notes, “He’s sharpened up after Demuro rode him for two straight weeks,” signaling improvement. His workouts are also above average.

Prediction Point:
The 316% value hinges on one question: can Demuro’s skill overcome the horse’s sluggishness? The 46% potential rated by the pros is real. If the improvements mentioned by the stable materialize on race day, a dominant victory beyond his popularity is possible.

2. [Kyoto 8R 3YO+ 2-Win Class] Humming

Projected

5th Favorite

Pro Index

29%

Value Score

267%

Trackman Ratings: Muta (△)

A high-value prospect with a 29% Pro Favorite Index despite being the projected 5th favorite. The key factors are the “return from a long layoff” and the first attempt at “2000m.” The stable is confident in his physical condition, stating he’s “fit without being overweight,” but they are concerned about the distance. To counter this, they’ve made the best possible move by using apprentice jockey O. Tayama for a 3kg weight reduction. A 53kg handicap is a powerful advantage in a stamina-testing race.

Prediction Point:
The market is discounting him for the layoff, while the pros are valuing his fitness and weight advantage. This gap creates the 267% value. If you believe the 3kg reduction can offset the distance concerns, this is a horse to bet on aggressively.

3. [Kyoto 6R 2YO Newcomer] Dream Harmony

Projected

5th Favorite

Pro Index

43%

Value Score

266%

Trackman Ratings: Muta (△)

While the Pro Favorite Index is an unusually high 43% for a newcomer race, on-site reports are mixed. His workouts are described as “unremarkable,” and his temperament is “high-strung,” suggesting risk. This could mean the prediction model has identified “hidden talent” based on his pedigree (sire: Drefong).

Prediction Point:
Today’s dirt track is “time-consuming” and tough, which poses a risk for a debut horse with temperament issues. Do you bet on the “hidden talent” indicated by the pro index, or do you trust the on-site reports? The 266% odds are the reward for taking that risk.

4. [Kyoto 5R 2YO Newcomer] Hayabusa Sakichan

Projected

3rd Favorite

Pro Index

50%

Value Score

249%

Trackman Ratings: Muta (◎) Nishimura (○) Hirose (▲) Paper (◎)

This is the “insider’s choice,” where pro and on-site evaluations align perfectly. A 50% Pro Favorite Index is backed by two trackmen, including the main paper, giving a “◎” (sure bet) rating. C. Demuro is booked to ride, and the stable is confident, stating “his preparation is excellent.” The fact that he’s still the projected 3rd favorite despite these credentials suggests an odds distortion caused by market focus on other hyped horses.

Prediction Point:
Pro index of 50%, expert “◎” ratings, a top jockey, and perfect preparation—all the elements are in place. While the market is distracted, there’s immense value in betting on the “pro’s favorite” at superb 249% odds.

Part 2: Today’s Headliners — Scrutinizing Feature Races

An analysis of value picks in high-profile races like the GII Daily Hai Nisai Stakes and the Andromeda Stakes (L).

5. [Kyoto 11R Daily Hai Nisai S. (GII)] Michael Barows

Projected

8th Favorite

Pro Index

5%

Value Score

186%

Trackman Ratings: None

Recommended as a major longshot at 8th favorite in a GII race. The reason is the alignment between the stable’s comments and the track bias. The stable analyzes him as a stamina type who is “at a disadvantage in a sprint finish.” Today’s Kyoto turf tends to favor “closers from the outside.” If the front-runners battle and set a tough pace, the race could unfold perfectly for his staying power.

Prediction Point:
A classic “bet when stretching out in distance” type. If the pace is fast over the Kyoto 1600m outer course and the “outside closer” bias comes into play, a huge upset from the 8th favorite is on the cards.

6. [Kyoto 10R Andromeda S. (L)] Shake Your Heart

Projected

2nd Favorite

Pro Index

24%

Value Score

155%

Trackman Ratings: Nishimura (○) Hirose (○) Muta (▲)

The “Pro Contender Index of 76%” reveals this horse’s true nature. This means 76% of pros rate this horse as their “second choice (contender) or higher,” suggesting he is an extremely reliable candidate to finish in the money and a strong “cornerstone bet.” His condition is also judged to be good enough to perform at his best.

Prediction Point:
As the Pro Contender Index shows, his reliability to finish in the money is among the best in the field, even if winning isn’t guaranteed. The 155% value makes him a very attractive anchor for exacta/trifecta bets.

Part 3: Seeking Certainty — High-Reliability Favorites

“Sure thing” candidates with exceptionally high Pro Favorite Indices and matching trackman evaluations. We verify their reliability considering the track bias.

7. [Kyoto 9R Fukakusa Tokubetsu] Big Dream

Projected

1st Favorite

Pro Index

65%

Value Score

175%

Trackman Ratings: None

Today’s top “sure thing” anchor horse. He has overwhelming support with a 65% Pro Favorite Index, and C. Demuro is in the saddle. There are no weaknesses in his preparation. What makes his reliability absolute is the track bias. The race is a 1200m dirt sprint, and today’s dirt “fundamentally favors front-runners.” A superior horse with a top jockey is heading into a race on a perfectly suited front-runner’s track.

Prediction Point:
High ability (65% index) and a powerful track bias (front-runner favored) have aligned perfectly. Being the favorite is expected, but the 175% value is a worthy investment given his reliability.

8. [Kyoto 4R 2YO Maiden] Timeless Flare

Projected

1st Favorite

Pro Index

78%

Value Score

172%

Trackman Ratings: Muta (◎) Nishimura (◎) Hirose (◎)

The most reliable horse of the day based on the index. The Pro Favorite Index is an astonishing 78%, and all three trackmen give a perfect “◎” rating. The experts are in complete agreement. The stable has also issued a confident comment, calling this “a race we want to win,” indicating they are fully prepared.

Prediction Point:
A 78% pro index, a triple “◎” from trackmen, and a determined stable. You couldn’t ask for more solid factors. The 172% value is at a level where you can still consider it “good value” for this level of certainty.

9. [Kyoto 7R 3YO+ 1-Win Class] Gullvi

Projected

1st Favorite

Pro Index

59%

Value Score

181%

Trackman Ratings: Muta (◎) Nishimura (◎) Hirose (◎) Paper (◎)

Four trackmen give a perfect “◎” rating, and the pro index is a high 59%. The absolute reason for this recommendation is the perfect match between the horse’s characteristics and the track conditions. The stable notes that he’s “slow to get going,” so “a slightly slower track is better.” Today’s Kyoto dirt is exactly that—a “time-consuming,” tough surface.

Prediction Point:
The “slower track” that the stable wished for has perfectly materialized with today’s “time-consuming” dirt. With the track as his greatest ally, his reliability is considered high.

10. [Kyoto 12R 3YO+ 1-Win Class] Mickey Stardom

Projected

3rd Favorite

Pro Index

31%

Value Score

192%

Trackman Ratings: Muta (◎) Nishimura (○) Paper (○)

A “hidden talent” backed by both pros and insiders to target in the final race. The market has him as the 3rd favorite, but his Pro Favorite Index is a high 31%, and trackmen also rate him highly. The track bias supports this evaluation. The race is a 1600m turf (outer course), and today’s turf favors “closers from the outside.” It’s highly likely that this horse’s “agile movement” will translate into a sharp closing kick in the final stretch.

Prediction Point:
The pro index and trackman ratings clearly surpass the market’s evaluation. At 192% value odds, we’re targeting this talented horse who can benefit from the “outside closer” bias.

ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

競馬予想家 (経験20年)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)

データ関連企業の社長であり、学生時代にはアルゴリズムコンテストで世界3位に入賞したAI技術者。20年以上にわたり統計解析を競馬予想に応用してきた競馬予測家でもあります。生成系AIを駆使した客観的で革新的な競馬予想を提供し、「生成AI競走馬評価」などのコンテンツを通じて、競馬をより深く楽しめるようサポートしています。

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ヤナシ社長(旧:生成系競馬予想)