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Kyoto Racecourse: Top 10 Horses to Watch on Nov 9, 2025 | Pro Analysis of Alpenglow, Pick de Mush, and High-Value Dark Horses

投稿者: ヤナシ社長(旧：生成系競馬予想)

November 9, 2025

The Kyoto race card for November 9, 2025, is packed with exciting races, including the G3 Miyako Stakes. Amidst challenging track conditions, we’ve selected 10 reliable anchor horses and high-value dark horses based on expert indices and stable comments. We provide a detailed analysis of favorites like Alpenglow and Pick de Mush, as well as longshots with over 400% value scores.

Key Takeaways

  • Reliable Anchor Candidates: Alpenglow (Kyoto 5R, Pro Favorite Index 71%) and Pick de Mush (Kyoto 7R, 63%) are highly recommended.
  • Promising Longshot Candidates: Belfast (Kyoto 12R) with a 420% Value Score and Bradamante (Kyoto 4R) at 357% offer high-payout potential.
  • G3 Miyako Stakes: In the main event, keep an eye on the 12th favorite, Levontulet (Pro Contender Index 47%).
  • Basis of Analysis: Selections are based on the gap between public popularity and expert indices (Value Score), combined with qualitative data like training reports and stable comments.

Today’s 10 Horses to Watch: Individual Analysis

Considering yesterday’s unpredictable track conditions, we analyze today’s 10 horses to watch by combining expert indices with on-the-ground information.

【Kyoto 1R: 2-Year-Old Maiden】 Seiun Basilisk

Data Analysis: Expected 6th Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 12% / Pro Contender Index 47% / Value Score 182%

For the opening race, we recommend Seiun Basilisk. Its ranking as the expected 6th favorite likely stems from the impression left by its previous race. While the stable admits “training was unremarkable,” the key is its potential for a “turnaround.” A Pro Contender Index of 47% is exceptionally high for a 6th favorite, indicating that experts highly value its improvement and change in conditions, noting it “moves better after a spell” and “seems suited for dirt.” This gap in evaluation creates the appealing Value Score of 182%.

Prediction Points

  • Improving Condition:The team states, “It’s moving better after a spell.” This is supported by the training comment “superior leg action.”
  • Value in Changing Conditions:The stable commented, “Dirt seems suitable,” suggesting a high potential for intrinsic aptitude.
  • Index Reliability:The Pro Contender Index of 47% clearly surpasses its expected 6th favorite status, offering significant betting value.

【Kyoto 4R: 2-Year-Old Newcomer】 Bradamante

Data Analysis: Expected 14th Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 17% / Pro Contender Index 46% / Value Score 357%

Bradamante is today’s most perplexing and intriguing horse. Training comments are harsh, noting a “lack of power,” and it has lagged in workouts. However, its Pro Favorite Index of 17% and Contender Index of 46% are unbelievably high for a 14th favorite. The abnormal “Value Score of 357%” arises from this massive contradiction. It suggests the index may have captured something not reflected in standard track times, making it a worthy consideration for a major upset.

Prediction Points

  • Astonishing Index:A Pro Favorite Index of 17% and Contender Index of 46% for an expected 14th favorite is a massive discrepancy.
  • Today’s Best Value Bet:The “Value Score of 357%” is a classic high-risk, high-reward indicator.
  • Contrarian Appeal:This is a bet on the pro index overturning the negative on-site evaluations.

【Kyoto 5R: 2-Year-Old Newcomer】 Alpenglow

Data Analysis: Expected 1st Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 71% / Pro Contender Index 67% / Value Score 163%

This is the most reliable “banker” on today’s list. It boasts an overwhelming Pro Favorite Index of 71%. A week ago, it clocked an excellent 11.2 seconds for the final furlong on the woodchip course, and its final workout was described as “light-footed.” Trainer Uemura is confident, stating, “We’ve worked it hard, it’s moving well, and a longer distance should suit.” The 2000m turf is a perfect setting. With jockey C. Demuro, it’s a highly trustworthy pick for its debut.

Prediction Points

  • Overwhelming Pro Index:A 71% Pro Favorite Index indicates the highest reliability of any horse today.
  • Backed by Training:It recorded a fast time a week ago and is in perfect condition for its final workout.
  • Stable’s Expectations:Trainer Uemura’s comments (“moving well,” “longer distance should suit”) show a strong focus on winning from the start.

【Kyoto 6R: 3-Year-Old & Up, 1-Win Class】 Mission Loose

Data Analysis: Expected 5th Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 9% / Pro Contender Index 45% / Value Score 349%

With a “Value Score of 349%,” this horse is recommended as a promising mid-range longshot. The key is the training comment “excellent muscle tone” from its final workout, one of the highest praises indicating a horse is at its physical peak. This qualitative data aligns perfectly with its high value score, suggesting its superb condition is not yet reflected in the odds.

Prediction Points

  • Excellent Condition:The training comment “excellent muscle tone” is a sign of peak form.
  • High Value Score:A score of 349% shows that public perception is significantly lower than the pro evaluation (Contender 45%).

【Kyoto 7R: 3-Year-Old & Up, 2-Win Class】 Pick de Mush

Data Analysis: Expected 2nd Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 63% / Pro Contender Index 72% / Value Score 199%

Second only to Alpenglow, this horse has a high Pro Favorite Index of 63%, making it a “semi-banker.” The core reason for this recommendation is the stable’s comment: “conditions have improved.” This shows the team is confident that today’s “Kyoto 2400m turf” is its best stage. Its pedigree—sired by Rey de Oro out of a Harbinger mare—is built for stamina over middle to long distances, further supporting its suitability for this race.

Prediction Points

  • Reliable Pro Index:A 63% Pro Favorite Index indicates stronger support than its 2nd favorite status suggests.
  • Stable’s Winning Intent:The comment “conditions have improved” reflects absolute confidence in this race setup.
  • Pedigree Background:The Rey de Oro x Harbinger cross suggests its stamina will shine over 2400m.

【Kyoto 8R: 3-Year-Old & Up, 2-Win Class】 Mozu Cattleya

Data Analysis: Expected 1st Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 43% / Pro Contender Index 67% / Value Score 210%

In this fillies and mares race against older horses, the 3-year-old filly Mozu Cattleya is the central figure. The stable’s bold comment, “young but powerful,” reveals confidence in its superior ability. Notably, its “Value Score of 210%” indicates that even as the expected favorite, its current market odds are still attractive compared to the pro’s expected odds. It’s a horse that combines reliability with value.

Prediction Points

  • Confidence in Ability:The stable’s “young but powerful” comment shows high regard for its ability to compete against older horses.
  • High Value Score:A score of 210% despite being the favorite suggests significant value in its odds.

【Kyoto 9R: Kizugawa Special】 Barrel Turn

Data Analysis: Expected 1st Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 62% / Pro Contender Index 67% / Value Score 187%

With a Pro Favorite Index of 62%, this is another of today’s “bankers.” Its reliability is backed by the training comment “improved after a prep race,” a clear sign that its last race wasn’t its best and it’s ready to win now. The stable’s comment “a chance to win if things click,” when interpreted with the pro index, can be seen as a confident statement: “it will definitely win if the race unfolds favorably.”

Prediction Points

  • Peak Condition:The comment “improved after a prep race” suggests it’s now in perfect form.
  • Pro’s Absolute Rating:A 62% Pro Favorite Index suggests its ability stands out in this field.
  • Stable’s Winning Calculation:The “chance to win if things click” comment implies they have a clear path to victory.

【Kyoto 10R: Kibune Stakes】 Agassi

Data Analysis: Expected 9th Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 4% / Pro Contender Index 44% / Value Score 167%

We focus on Agassi as a classic “course specialist” dark horse. Despite its low ranking as the 9th favorite, its Pro Contender Index is a very high 44%. This evaluation is likely summarized in the stable’s comment: “at its favorite Kyoto.” It’s in solid condition and ready to perform on its preferred track, making it an ideal horse to include in exotic bets.

Prediction Points

  • Course Suitability:The stable explicitly calls it a Kyoto specialist.
  • High Expert Rating:Contrary to its low popularity, its Pro Contender Index is 44%.
  • Betting Value:With a Value Score of 167%, it offers good value as a contender for a place.

【Kyoto 11R: Miyako Stakes】 Levontulet

Data Analysis: Expected 12th Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 5% / Pro Contender Index 47% / Value Score 174%

This is the horse with the most value in today’s main event, the G3 Miyako Stakes. Completely overlooked as the 12th favorite, its Pro Contender Index of 47% is comparable to the top favorites. This gap is where the opportunity lies. Trainer Yahagi’s comment “steadily getting stronger” can be interpreted as confidence that it has reached a level to compete in a graded stakes race. Its training process has also been ideal.

Prediction Points

  • Index vs. Popularity Gap:It has an extremely high Pro Contender Index of 47% for a 12th favorite.
  • Stable’s Assessment of Improvement:Trainer Yahagi’s comment suggests it is reaching its peak form.
  • Perfect Training Process:It had a “strong workout last week” and a final tune-up, indicating ideal preparation.

【Kyoto 12R: 3-Year-Old & Up, 1-Win Class】 Belfast

Data Analysis: Expected 10th Favorite / Pro Favorite Index 21% / Pro Contender Index 68% / Value Score 420%

Our top longshot recommendation for a final-race comeback. The “Value Score of 420%” is an anomaly, but it’s strongly supported by stable comments and training evaluations. Trainer Konno sent a classic “turnaround” signal: “Its condition has improved recently. Its muscle tone is much better.” The training report fully supports this with “plenty of speed.” The combined pro index (89%) is tantamount to declaring this horse a contender, making it the one to bet on most aggressively.

Prediction Points

  • Today’s Highest Value Score:A 420% Value Score shows the largest gap between pro and public evaluation.
  • Sign of Peak Form:The stable explicitly states its condition and muscle tone have rapidly improved.
  • Expert’s “Contender” Rating:A combined pro index of 89% is an exceptional rating for a 10th favorite, making it a potential anchor for bets.
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