Final Workout Evalua…
Unbreakable Aces & High-Yield Longshots
November 8, 2025
A must-watch day at Kyoto, featuring a mix of professional-rated sure things and high-value longshots. From aces like Justin le Mans to dark horses like Aethelred, we break down 11 key horses based on expert analysis of training data and stable comments.
The following table shows the gap between public popularity projections and professional evaluations. The “Value Score” is an index of how much the professional rating is not yet reflected in the current odds; a higher number indicates better value.
| Race Info | Horse Name | Proj. Pop. | Pro’s Top Pick Index | Pro’s Contender Index | Value Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyoto 10R Shimizu S | Channel Tunnel | 4 | 25% | 71% | 239% |
| Kyoto 11R Muromachi S | Aethelred | 9 | 19% | 56% | 347% |
| Kyoto 12R 3yo+ 1-Win Class | New Credo | 4 | 16% | 41% | 152% |
| Kyoto 1R 2yo Maiden | GT Bikini | 4 | 22% | 44% | 198% |
| Kyoto 2R 2yo Maiden | Patronus | 3 | 47% | 66% | 225% |
| Kyoto 3R 2yo Maiden | Titanomachia | 4 | 28% | 59% | 167% |
| Kyoto 4R 2yo Maiden | Justin le Mans | 1 | 83% | 72% | 151% |
| Kyoto 5R 2yo Newcomer | Admire Shura | 1 | 67% | 67% | 193% |
| Kyoto 6R 2yo Newcomer | Bice Mare | 1 | 75% | 60% | 219% |
| Kyoto 7R 3yo+ 1-Win Class | Lux Daisy | 1 | 78% | 67% | 211% |
| Kyoto 9R Kameoka Tokubetsu | Alcyone | 5 | 23% | 52% | 209% |
Projected 4th in popularity, but with a Pro’s Top Pick Index of 25% and a “Value Score” of 239%, this horse offers excellent value. While the general public may be concerned about the “break in racing” schedule, professionals see it differently. The main reason is the training data, which shows the horse is in perfect condition despite the layoff. The Fukunaga stable commented, “He won’t falter here,” indicating his characteristic consistency is intact. As a progeny of Greater London, his suitability for the Kyoto mile is also considered high.
Betting Angle: Value Score of 239%. Despite the layoff, the training report notes he is “well-finished,” suggesting peak condition. The stable is confident in his consistency, making him a strong contender right from the start.
This is arguably today’s best value bet. Projected 9th in popularity, Aethelred has a staggering “Value Score” of 347% with a Pro’s Top Pick Index of 19%. While the public may be swayed by recent performances, professionals have confirmed a “return to form.” Trainer Miyamoto stated, “He’s lively and has a good feel this time,” giving concrete evidence of a recovery. With a top-tier “sharp movement” rating in the final workout, this horse is a high-yield longshot that should be actively targeted.
Betting Angle: Today’s highest Value Score at 347%. The stable has declared a clear return to form, backed by excellent training data. With a successful mental reset, this horse is full of potential for a dramatic turnaround.
While not flashy with a projected 4th popularity and 16% Pro’s Top Pick Index, this horse is a very solid choice as a betting anchor. This race requires a reliable horse, as the projected favorite has a low Pro Index. New Credo’s key selling point is “reliability.” The final workout report of “no decline in condition” shows stable, high-level form, and the Ishizaka stable commented, “We have expectations once again.” A major collapse is unlikely, making this horse an ideal anchor or top contender.
Betting Angle: The “no decline in condition” training evaluation indicates stable, high-level form. The stable is confident in his ability at this class, making him a more reliable and valuable anchor than the low-rated favorite.
This horse’s evaluation hinges on one word: “transformation.” With a mid-range rating (4th projected popularity, 22% Pro Index), the clear upside is the “first-time blinkers.” Trainer Matsushita explained the intent: “He still feels like he’s not running his all,” suggesting the issue is focus, not ability. The workout report also anticipates a change, noting he’s a “horse that will change in a real race.”
Betting Angle: The biggest factor is the “first-time blinkers.” The stable is using equipment to address a specific issue, and as the training report suggests, improved focus could unlock a sudden burst of ability.
A horse with an extremely high professional rating. Despite being projected 3rd in popularity, the Pro’s Top Pick Index is an outstanding 47%. Trainer Takahashi Ryo states, “1400 meters suits him, so we’re trying again,” affirming his absolute suitability. The training data is also perfect, noting he “maintains good spirits.” This is a value horse with a 225% “Value Score,” representing a significant gap between professional opinion and public odds.
Betting Angle: Trust the exceptional 47% Pro’s Top Pick Index. The stable has given its seal of approval on his suitability, and training is perfect. This is the pro’s “true protagonist” and an ideal betting anchor.
A dark horse candidate at 4th projected popularity and 28% Pro Index. Trainer Ikee is positive, saying “his movement is good,” but his “difficult temperament” is a concern. Conversely, the training report is more sober, noting a “lack of power,” reflecting an imbalance: strong if he’s in the mood, but fragile otherwise. The key will be whether jockey C. Demuro can keep him engaged.
Betting Angle: The “difficult temperament” mentioned by the stable is the biggest factor. Conflicting evaluations from the stable and training team suggest his performance could vary wildly depending on his mood on race day. Bet on the skill of a top jockey.
Today’s “unbreakable ace” at Kyoto. Against a 1st place popularity projection, he has an incredible Pro’s Top Pick Index of 83%. Trainer Sugiyama Haruki declared, “The switch to dirt is a plus,” a strong message from the stable that this change in conditions is a golden opportunity. The training report also shows “maintains good spirits” with no concerns. He is considered a value bet even as the favorite.
Betting Angle: A Pro’s Top Pick Index of 83% signifies rock-solid reliability. The biggest factor is the stable’s explicit statement that the “switch to dirt is a plus.” With perfect training, he has no apparent weaknesses.
An extremely high rating for a newcomer, with a 67% Pro’s Top Pick Index. Jockey C. Demuro personally rode him in a flawless workout on the turf course, earning a “light-footed” comment. Trainer Tomomichi also praised him, saying “he moved well on the main turf course on the 5th,” providing clear evidence that he is “ready to win now.”
Betting Angle: Unusually polished for a newcomer. The stable praised his final workout on turf with C. Demuro aboard. With the golden combination of the Tomomichi stable and C. Demuro, he is expected to be a contender from day one.
The star of today’s newcomer races, with a 75% Pro’s Top Pick Index. Trainer Tomomichi commented, “He seems to have speed,” a fact supported by his pedigree (sire Lord Kanaloa, dam’s sire Siyouni). His training evaluation is also high, with a “very good movement” rating. A 75% Pro Index with the combination of jockey Yutaka Take and the Tomomichi stable is practically a sure thing.
Betting Angle: An outstanding horse with a 75% Pro Index. Trainer Tomomichi praises his speed, which is strongly backed by his pedigree. With a “very good movement” training rating and Yutaka Take in the saddle, a debut victory is highly likely.
A reliable horse with strong support, boasting a 78% Pro’s Top Pick Index. Although moving up in class, his weapon is clear “growth,” as trainer Takahashi Ryo noted, “He’s gained weight and I can feel his development.” He was also praised in training for his “noticeably sharp movements,” indicating he is at his peak. It’s safe to assume he can handle the class jump immediately.
Betting Angle: A high reliability score of 78% Pro Index. The stable has commented on his maturation, and he received high praise in training. The class jump should not be a barrier; expect him to be a contender here as well.
If you’re looking for value, this veteran horse is it, with a 5th projected popularity and a 209% “Value Score.” Professionals have identified the reason for his recent losses, with trainer Sugai Naosuke commenting, “The distance in his last race took its toll.” The switch to the Kyoto dirt 1400m is a “long-awaited” change. Despite being a 7-year-old, his condition hasn’t dropped, and he showed “powerful strides” in training. This is a perfect opportunity for a comeback.
Betting Angle: A recommended longshot with a 209% Value Score. Stable comments suggest a favorable change in conditions this time. He showed “powerful strides” in training and can be expected to outperform his popularity.
Today’s Kyoto races feature two solid anchors: Justin le Mans (Race 4) with a Pro’s Top Pick Index of 83%, and Bice Mare (Race 6) at 75%. At the same time, there are numerous high-yield longshots, such as Aethelred (Race 11), whose return to form has been noted by professionals, and Alcyone (Race 9), who is expected to benefit from a change in race conditions. We recommend building a smart betting strategy using the “raw information” analyzed in this report—the “training data” and “stable comments” obtained by experts.