Kusunoki Sho 2025 Predictions

An in-depth analysis of all 12 runners, including K’s Reve, Smile Mambo, and Bellagio Dream, for the 3-year-old graded race at Sonoda Racecourse on November 6, 2025.

Key Points of This Article

• Rematch: K’s Reve from Nagoya and local hero Bellagio Dream face off again. K’s Reve has won their last two encounters.
• Top Contender: Smile Mambo, who has competed against elite JRA horses in JpnI races, enters with a strong record.
• Pace Battle: With many strong front-runners like Half Blue and Eishin Harrier, a fast-paced war of attrition is expected.
• Potential Advantage: The race dynamics may favor closers like K’s Reve and Genius Lennon, who can conserve energy at the back of the pack.

In-depth Analysis of All 12 Runners

Here’s a detailed breakdown of each horse by post position, including objective data from four perspectives: Analyst’s Take, Recent Performance, Training Evaluation, and Stable Comments.

1Tamba Bushou (Colt, 3yo | T. Takemura | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: His biggest challenge is settling. In his last race, the Sonoda Autumn Trophy (1700m), he showed improved ability by securing 3rd place despite pulling hard early. Given his temperament, a steadily paced sprint is more suitable than a middle-distance race with pace changes. The cutback to 1400m is a major plus.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/9 Sonoda Autumn T (1700m Firm) – 3rd (5th Fav)
• 2 Ago: 9/24 Chan (1400m Firm) – 1st (1st Fav)
• 3 Ago: 9/3 Shoshu Toku (1400m Heavy) – 1st (2nd Fav)

Training Evaluation: Final workout on Oct 30 (Thu) at Nishiwaki. Clocked 50.0 – 37.1 at a full gallop. Comment: “Vibrant movement,” a high rating.

Stable Comments: Trainer Sakamoto: “Considering his tendency to pull, the likely fast pace of this field should be a positive. If he can settle smoothly, he should perform well here.”

2Half Blue (Filly, 3yo | T. Sasagawa | 55kg)

Analyst’s Take: Boasts a near-perfect quinella rate of [5-5-0-2] in 12 starts, and [5-5-0-1] on dirt. While primarily a sprinter, she ran well to finish 2nd by a neck in a 1400m race four starts ago, so the distance extension is within her range.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 7/17 Yushun S (1200m Heavy) – 1st (3rd Fav)
• 2 Ago: 6/12 Yushun S (1200m Heavy) – 2nd (1st Fav)
• 3 Ago: 1/30 Hinagi (1400m Firm) – 2nd (1st Fav)

Training Evaluation: Final prep on Nov 1 (Sat) at Ohi. Clocked 68.0 – 53.2 – 39.2 at a canter. Comment: “In good condition.”

Stable Comments: Trainer Suzuki: “Training has been smooth for this target” and “1400 meters is within her scope.” However, he notes that handling “her first long-distance travel and a new course” will be key.

3Genius Lennon (Colt, 3yo | W. Hirose | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: Lacks a decisive kick in middle-distance races, but this weakness is mitigated in sprints. Both of his wins have come at 1400m, and he recorded the fastest final furlongs in last year’s Hyogo Junior GP (JpnII). He’s a dark horse if the pace suits him.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/22 Special C (1700m Good to Soft) – 4th (4th Fav)
• 2 Ago: 10/1 C1,2 (1400m Firm) – 1st (3rd Fav)
• 3 Ago: 9/18 C1,2 (1400m Firm) – 4th (2nd Fav)

Training Evaluation: Cantered at Sonoda on Oct 30 (Thu) (59.2 – 42.9). Finished level with his work partner. Comment: “Good spirit in company.”

Stable Comments: Trainer Hori: “A 1400-meter race is better for him at this stage,” welcoming the shorter distance. “The competition is tough, but he’s been training well.”

4K’s Reve (Colt, 3yo | H. Yoshihara | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: Won the Gold Soha last time out, his first race against older horses, closing strongly despite trouble. His talent is proven, having finished 5th (top among regional horses) in the Hyogo CS (JpnII) in May. He has gained nearly 20kg in six months, showing remarkable growth.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/16 Gold (1500m Sloppy) – 1st (1st Fav)
• 2 Ago: 9/18 Aki no Kura (1500m Firm) – 1st (1st Fav)
• 3 Ago: 7/13 Kenrokuen (1500m Firm) – 1st (1st Fav)

Training Evaluation: Cantered at Nagoya on Oct 31 (Fri). Clocked 49.1 – 36.2. Comment: “Maintaining good form.”

Stable Comments: Trainer Enokiya: “We can run him on a shorter turnaround for the first time,” and “His condition is good.” The stable’s confidence is high, noting, “We’re targeting the Hyogo Gold Trophy after this.”

5Riondarina (Filly, 3yo | S. Shimohara | 55kg)

Analyst’s Take: Finished 6th in her first start after transferring to Hyogo, but that can be overlooked as she wasn’t fully prepared due to a minor injury. Her training has intensified since, and she has an excellent course record, having won last year’s Sonoda Princess Cup decisively.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/3 Nikka (1400m Firm) – 6th (2nd Fav)
• 2 Ago: 9/3 After (1200m Firm) – 11th (3rd Fav)
• 3 Ago: 7/17 Yushun S (1200m Heavy) – 2nd (1st Fav)

Training Evaluation: Cantered at Sonoda on Nov 2 (Sun) (51.9 – 37.6). Finished 0.9 seconds ahead of her work partner. Comment: “Full of energy,” indicating recovery.

Stable Comments: Trainer Tanaka: “She was coming off an injury last time, but we’ve trained her hard for this one. A weight around 440kg should be just right.” He emphasizes clear improvement from her last race.

6Eishin Harrier (Colt, 3yo | R. Oyama | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: Won his last race comfortably by setting a fast pace and never letting the field catch up. Given his difficult temperament, a sprint where he can utilize his speed is currently his best option.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/1 Special B (1400m Firm) – 1st (1st Fav)
• 2 Ago: 9/11 Chris (1700m Heavy) – 7th (1st Fav)
• 3 Ago: 7/18 Special B (1400m Sloppy) – 2nd (1st Fav)

Training Evaluation: Worked at a full gallop at Nishiwaki on Oct 30 (Thu), clocking 66.6 – 50.3 – 37.9. Comment: “Full of vigor.”

Stable Comments: Trainer Sakamoto states, “1400 meters is his best distance,” but also suggests versatility: “Even if he can’t get the lead, he can still be competitive from just off the pace if he gets into the flow of the race.”

7Holy Grail (Filly, 3yo | T. Yano | 55kg)

Analyst’s Take: Won consecutive races after transferring to Kawasaki, including the New Year Cup. Her lack of wins on right-handed tracks is a concern, but her 8th place in the Tokyo Princess Sho two starts ago can be attributed to a tough pace battle with another front-runner.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 8/28 Alexi (1700m Firm) – 2nd (1st Fav)
• 2 Ago: 4/30 Tokyo P (1800m Good to Soft) – 8th (2nd Fav)
• 3 Ago: 3/20 Oka Sho (1500m Heavy) – 2nd (1st Fav)

Training Evaluation: Trained on the farm’s uphill track until Nov 1 (Sat). Clocked 38.0 – 24.6 – 12.2 at a canter. Comment: “Trained at an external facility.”

Stable Comments: Trainer Uchida gives a “◎” (Top Pick) rating. “She’s in great shape for this target,” and “1400 meters, where she can settle, is her best distance.” The stable’s expectations are at the highest level.

8Bellagio Dream (Colt, 3yo | F. Komaki | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: A talented horse who consistently runs close races in local graded stakes. He fought a fierce battle with K’s Reve in the Aki no Kura two starts ago, finishing 2nd by a head. He aims for his first long-awaited graded stakes victory on his home turf at Sonoda.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/10 Amagasaki So (1400m Heavy) – 1st (1st Fav)
• 2 Ago: 9/18 Aki no Kura (1500m Firm) – 2nd (3rd Fav)
• 3 Ago: 6/26 Hyogo Yu (1870m Heavy) – 2nd (2nd Fav)

Training Evaluation: Cantered at Sonoda on Nov 3 (Mon) (58.1 – 42.2). Comment: “Excellent spirit,” indicating he is in top condition.

Stable Comments: The groom gives a “◎” (Top Pick) rating. “We’ve got him to a level where if he loses, we have no excuses. We’ve had a string of frustrating results in graded stakes, so we really want to win this time.” This is a “do or die” effort.

9Smile Mambo (Colt, 3yo | T. Yoshimura | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: Performed well against top-level competition in the 3-year-old dirt classic series, finishing 3rd in the Kumotori Sho (JpnIII) and 4th in the Haneda Hai (JpnI). Since most of his top-two finishes are at a mile or less, the cutback to 1400m is seen as a positive.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/8 Japa (2000m Firm) – 13th (11th Fav)
• 2 Ago: 6/11 Tokyo Da (2000m Sloppy) – 8th (7th Fav)
• 3 Ago: 4/29 Haneda Hai (1800m Heavy) – 4th (5th Fav)

Training Evaluation: Cantered on the Kobayashi uphill track on Nov 1 (Sat) (30.1 – 14.4). Comment: “Conditioning is decent,” suggesting steady improvement.

Stable Comments: Trainer Sakai expects a significant improvement: “The benefit of having a race after a layoff is huge,” and “The switch to 1400 meters should be good.” He adds, “We’ve also secured a top local jockey,” indicating they are fully prepared.

10Rapido Fiore (Colt, 3yo | Y. Tano | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: Held on for 2nd in the Sonoda Autumn Trophy last time, despite pressure from the winner. His lead changes, previously an issue, have become smoother, showing progress even in defeat. The 1400m distance is where he won his first title, a favorable stage for him.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 10/9 Sonoda O (1700m Firm) – 2nd (2nd Fav)
• 2 Ago: 9/7 Nishi Nihon (1900m Heavy) – 1st (1st Fav)
• 3 Ago: 8/3 Kuroshio Kiku (1900m Heavy) – 1st (5th Fav)

Training Evaluation: A strong workout at Sonoda on Oct 30 (Thu) (67.5 – 51.3 – 37.8). He beat his work partner by 1.2 seconds. Comment: “Sharp finish, impressive movement.”

Stable Comments: Trainer Tanaka shows confidence in the distance: “If he breaks well and gets into the flow, he should handle 1400 meters.”

11Jugemoon (Colt, 3yo | S. Akaoka | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: Winner of two legs of the Kochi 3-year-old Triple Crown. He put up a good fight in the Summer Champion (JpnIII), finishing 5th against older JRA horses, albeit with a light weight. Most of his top-two finishes are at 1400m or less, so this distance should suit him.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 9/4 Summer (1400m Firm) – 5th (6th Fav)
• 2 Ago: 8/3 Kuroshio Kiku (1900m Heavy) – 2nd (1st Fav)
• 3 Ago: 6/22 Kochi Yu (1900m Sloppy) – 1st (1st Fav)

Training Evaluation: Cantered at Kochi on Nov 2 (Sun) (52.4 – 38.4 – 12.7). Comment: “Excellent muscle tone,” indicating good condition.

Stable Comments: Trainer Tanaka rates his condition well: “His fitness is not an issue, and the distance is perfect.” However, he adds a cautious note: “The field is strong, so we’ll see how well he can compete.”

12King Spica (Colt, 3yo | S. Sasada | 57kg)

Analyst’s Take: Finished 5th in the Gifu Seiryu Cup (1400m) at Kasamatsu four starts ago, but his closing time was comparable to the top finishers. A better result can be expected on his favorite “Sonoda 1400m” course.

Recent Performance:

• Last: 8/20 Ciao (1400m Firm) – 2nd (2nd Fav)
• 2 Ago: 7/23 Special C (1400m Firm) – 1st (1st Fav)
• 3 Ago: 6/26 Hyogo Yu (1870m Heavy) – 11th (7th Fav)

Training Evaluation: Cantered at Sonoda on Oct 30 (Thu) (55.0 – 40.3). Comment: “Solid stride.”

Stable Comments: Trainer Hori seems to be aiming for an upset: “He seems to be in good shape, but we’ll see how he measures up in this field. We’re hoping to save ground and aim for the best possible finish with one late run.”

Prediction Summary [Data Analysis]

Analyzing the data for all 12 runners reveals several key trends and rivalries that will shape the race.

Pace Prediction: A Fierce Battle for the Lead is Inevitable

It’s highly likely that multiple horses will vie for the lead, making a slow early pace improbable. A “high-paced war of attrition” is expected, where stamina will be tested despite the 1400m distance. This scenario could favor closers who can conserve energy at the back.

Stable Confidence: Two Teams Mark Their Horses as ‘Top Pick’ (◎)

While many stables are giving cautious comments, two have publicly declared their horses as “◎ (Top Pick),” signaling peak condition.

Bellagio Dream’s “◎” shows a serious intent to avenge past defeats. Meanwhile, Holy Grail’s “◎” suggests her last two races were at unsuitable distances, indicating a potential discrepancy between her popularity and actual ability, making her a horse to watch.

Final Predictions for Kusunoki Sho 2025

This article has summarized the objective data for all 12 runners in the Kusunoki Sho. For final conclusions and recommended bets based on this analysis, please check the expert opinions at the link below.See Final Picks & Bets (netkeiba.com)