The Kunitachi Tokubetsu will be held at Tokyo Racecourse on November 2, 2025. The main focus is the showdown between two powerhouses: the undefeated foreign-bred Un Pas Doux and the G2-experienced Matenro Barows. However, with rising 3-year-olds like One More Smile in the mix, the race is shaping up to be a tight contest. In this article, we’ll thoroughly analyze the key prediction points for this exciting mile race based on the latest data and expert evaluations to find the key to a winning ticket.
Key Takeaways
- The spotlight is on the clash between two giants: the undefeated, talented Un Pas Doux and the G2-experienced Matenro Barows.
- Up-and-coming 3-year-olds like One More Smile and Coricancha are serious contenders threatening the top spots.
- The anticipated slow pace is likely to favor horses with strong front-running ability.
- In the final workouts, Un Pas Doux received top marks from multiple expert sources, indicating peak condition.
Clash of the Titans: A Detailed Analysis of the Top Contenders
As expert picks and predicted odds suggest, the stars of this race are Un Pas Doux and Matenro Barows. However, their strengths are contrasting, leaving many fans wondering which horse to back. Here, we’ll dive deep into their data to compare their abilities and conditions.
(2) Un Pas Doux – The Undefeated Talent with Limitless Potential
The horse deserving the highest evaluation at this point is arguably Un Pas Doux, undefeated with two wins in two starts. His greatest strength lies in his immeasurable potential. His performance in the Gozurenpo Tokubetsu was particularly noteworthy. Despite a long layoff of over a year, he secured a comfortable victory against a field of strong competitors. This race was more than enough to prove his extraordinary talent.
A crucial piece of data is jockey C. Lemaire’s post-race comment: “He’s a good horse, and I’m excited about his future.” Earning such high praise from a world-class jockey confirms the high caliber of Un Pas Doux’s talent.
Furthermore, his condition is flawless. In his final workout, Keiba Book rated him as “showing good signs,” and netkeiba’s training evaluation gave him the highest “A” rank with the comment “excellent condition.” The fact that multiple expert sources are unanimously reporting his great shape suggests he will enter the race in perfect form. His camp commented, “It won’t be easy in his first race after moving up in class, but the Tokyo course is easy for him to run on,” showing confidence in his suitability for the venue. It’s hard to find any weaknesses.
(4) Matenro Barows – G2 Experience and a Devastating Finishing Kick
Un Pas Doux’s biggest rival is Matenro Barows. His experience in high-level races like the G2 Aoba Sho and G2 Spring Stakes stands out in this field, making him a classic “class-above” horse. His greatest weapon is an explosive late kick that truly shines on the long straight of Tokyo Racecourse. As the racing form notes, his “finish in the last race was fierce.” In his previous race, the Takanosuyama Tokubetsu, he clocked an astonishing 33.1 seconds for the final three furlongs—the fastest in the field—to finish second. This turn of foot is undoubtedly top-tier among this lineup.
His training is also noteworthy. His final workout was evaluated as “moves better than the time suggests,” an expert opinion indicating that the quality of his movement is high and he has plenty in reserve. This evaluation can be seen as proof that the horse is on a serious upward trajectory. An assistant from the Kon stable stated, “There are no signs of fatigue after a good run off a layoff. His training has been smooth, and we can expect further improvement,” a very encouraging statement confirming his progress since the last race.
This showdown fits the eternal horse racing theme of “momentum vs. experience.” Un Pas Doux rides a wave of undefeated momentum, while Matenro Barows boasts proven class and a solid record. The closely matched predicted odds of 3.0 and 3.6 show that expert opinions are divided. The track conditions and race pace on the day will be key factors in determining which horse has the advantage.
The Rise of the Dark Horses: Analyzing the Challengers
While the top two are formidable, several other horses have the potential to cause an upset. The 3-year-olds, who receive a 1kg weight allowance, deserve special attention.
The Rapidly Improving 3-Year-Old Trio
This year’s Kunitachi Tokubetsu features a very strong group of 3-year-olds, led by Matenro Barows.
One More Smile scored a decisive victory in his last race, showing signs of hitting his peak. After the race, jockey Ryusei Sakai praised his performance, saying, “He ran a textbook race and still had a strong kick at the end.” The camp’s comment that “switching to a ring bit has solved his leaning problem” is a major plus, indicating a key issue has been resolved. His final workout was also rated as “maintaining good form,” showing he is in top condition.
Coricancha is a horse where the stable’s strategy has paid off brilliantly. As trainer Takashi Saito said, “The gelding and blinkers have made a huge difference,” his recent performance has visibly improved. Furthermore, the comment “He’s a type that needs to be pushed, so the wide Tokyo course should suit him” strongly suggests his suitability for this venue, and a change of course could lead to even better results. The first-time blinkers may also help him focus to his maximum potential.
Emperor’s Sword is another one to watch. He ran a strong race to finish third in the same Takanosuyama Tokubetsu as Matenro Barows, proving his ability. His training data shows an upward arrow “↗” for improvement along with the comment “getting better and better,” indicating he is in his prime. If the race unfolds in a way that favors his front-running style, he could very well hold on for a top spot.
The Older Dark Horse Emerging from Course Suitability
Beyond the 3-year-olds, the 6-year-old veteran Argenteus is worth noting. As trainer Shigeyuki Kojima commented, “His running on a left-handed track was indeed smooth,” he is a typical “southpaw,” making the Tokyo course an ideal stage. Backing this up, he unleashed a sharp late kick of 33.0 seconds over the final three furlongs to finish second in his last race at Tokyo, the Yatsugatake Tokubetsu. If the race develops in his favor, he could certainly mow down the leaders in the stretch.
Considering the race dynamics, netkeiba’s data predicts a “slow pace.” A slow pace generally favors horses that run near the front and can be tough for closers coming from behind. If this prediction holds true, it will be a tailwind for front-runners like Emperor’s Sword and Straight Talker. On the other hand, for closers like Matenro Barows and Argenteus, there’s a risk that their greatest weapon—their late kick—could be neutralized. How jockey Norihiro Yokoyama on Matenro Barows reads this pace prediction and chooses his position will be a critical factor in the outcome.
4 Key Points for Predicting the Kunitachi Tokubetsu 2025
Based on the analysis so far, here are four key points to help you nail your predictions for the 2025 Kunitachi Tokubetsu. A comprehensive judgment of these factors is the key to a winning ticket.
Point 1: Final Workout Evaluations – Which Horse is in Peak Condition?
Final workout evaluations are one of the most reliable indicators of a horse’s condition just before a race. By consolidating ratings from multiple expert sources, we can get a more accurate picture of each horse’s fitness.
| Horse Name | Keiba Book Rating | netkeiba Rating | Overall Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|
| (2) Un Pas Doux | “Showing good signs” | A (“Excellent condition”) | Peak form |
| (4) Matenro Barows | “Moves better than the time” | B (“Improving further”) | Top shape |
| (3) One More Smile | “Maintaining good form” | B (“Good condition”) | Maintaining form |
| (5) Coricancha | “Well-prepared” | B (“Ready to go”) | Maintaining form |
| (8) Emperor’s Sword | “Getting better and better” | B (“Full of energy”) | On the rise |
| (7) Straight Talker | “Improving further” | B (“Plenty of improvement”) | On the rise |
As this table clearly shows, Un Pas Doux has received top-tier ratings from both sources, indicating he is arriving at the race in peak physical and mental condition. Matenro Barows also earned a high evaluation with the insightful “moves better than the time” comment, suggesting his condition is excellent.
Point 2: Tactical Advantage – The Edge Gained from a Slow Pace
As mentioned, the predicted slow pace will significantly impact the race. The horses that benefit most from this scenario are those that can position themselves near the front. The race projection suggests Emperor’s Sword is likely to take the lead, and Straight Talker is also known for his forward-running style. If these horses can easily set the pace, they have a high chance of fending off the closers.
Point 3: Reading Between the Lines of Camp Comments
Comments from connections can sometimes reveal more than official statements. Confident remarks like “we can expect further improvement” from the Matenro Barows camp or “he can handle the step up in class” from the One More Smile camp show high expectations. On the other hand, the Un Pas Doux camp’s comment that “it won’t be easy” shows a more cautious stance despite acknowledging his ability. Deciphering these nuances is crucial.
Point 4: Course Suitability – Who is the Tokyo 1600m Turf Specialist?
The Tokyo 1600m turf is a tough course that demands both stamina and a strong finishing kick on the long straight. The comments “the wide Tokyo course should suit him” from Coricancha’s camp and “his running on a left-handed track was smooth” from Argenteus’s camp directly point to their high suitability for this course. This factor, which may not be fully reflected in the odds, is an essential point to consider when looking for a longshot.
Conclusion: What are the Pro’s Final Picks?
We have analyzed the Kunitachi Tokubetsu from multiple angles. It’s a fascinating race centered around the two powerhouses—the undefeated talent Un Pas Doux and the proven performer Matenro Barows—with a mix of surging 3-year-olds and course specialists. The key to the race will likely be the tactical element of the predicted slow pace. How this affects each horse’s performance and what strategies the jockeys employ will be decisive. A comprehensive judgment of all these factors is required to build the most valuable betting ticket.
Check the Final Selections and Bets
For the final selections and betting slip, including the pro’s picks, please check the link below.See the Pro’s Final Predictions
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