Data-Driven Analysis of the Morioka 1200m M2 Graded Race
November 16, 2025
This is a data-driven prediction article for the Kizuna Cup (M2), a graded race at Morioka Racecourse on November 16, 2025. We thoroughly analyze past race data to decipher the power dynamics between top contenders like Uraya, Lady Brown, and Oscar Brain. Based on results from crucial preliminary races, we offer an objective breakdown of the likely race pace, key factors, and promising betting angles.
Key Takeaways
- In the most critical preliminary race on Oct 21 (1200m), Lady Brown edged out Uraya for the win.
- Oscar Brain performs well in 1000m races but has finished 4th in his last two 1200m starts, raising distance concerns.
- With multiple front-runners, a fast pace is likely, favoring horses that can close from behind (closers).
- Eishin Torpedo has finished in the top 3 in his last three races, showing exceptional consistency and making him a suitable anchor for bets.
- Lady Brown carries 55kg, giving her a 2kg weight advantage over her main rivals at 57kg.
15th Kizuna Cup (M2): Race Overview & Analysis Premise
First, let’s review the basic race information and the premises for this analysis.
Race Information
- Date & Time: November 16, 2025, 17:35 Start
- Conditions: Morioka Racecourse, Race 11, Dirt 1200m (Left-handed)
- Grade: M2, Open, Thoroughbreds 3 years and older, Set Weights
This analysis is based solely on the provided performance charts. According to the source material, there were errors in acquiring “training data” and “stable comments,” so they are not included in this report. Therefore, the following analysis is limited to objective data from each horse’s past race performance (finish order, time, position, last 3 furlongs, etc.).
Deep Dive: The Crucial Preliminary Races
In predicting the Kizuna Cup, recent performance is more critical than overall career records, especially the results of head-to-head matchups between the contenders. Fortunately, many of the entrants have recently clashed in the Morioka sprint series, providing valuable clues to their current form and hierarchy.
October 21 “Sprint” (1200m): The Rematch
The most important race to analyze is this one, held on the exact same Morioka 1200m course (yielding track). A remarkable 8 of the 11 starters in that race are competing in the Kizuna Cup. The results were as follows:
- 1st: Lady Brown (#5)
- 2nd: Uraya (#2) (Margin: Head)
- 3rd: Eishin Torpedo (#8) (Margin: 0.2s)
- 4th: Oscar Brain (#6) (Margin: 0.4s)
- 6th: Lord of the Czech (#1)
- 7th: Guadeloupe (#12)
- 9th: Good Fortune (#9)
- 10th: Bliss Time (#4)
A data review of this race shows that Oscar Brain (#6) [pos: 1-1] and Eishin Torpedo (#8) [pos: 2-2] set a fast pace (H). As a result, while the front-runners tired (Oscar Brain’s last 3F: 37.0s; Eishin Torpedo’s: 36.5s), the horses that settled mid-pack unleashed powerful closing kicks. Lady Brown (#5) [pos: 7-6] clocked a final 3F of 35.6s, and Uraya (#2) [pos: 8-7] was even faster at 35.4s. This October 21 race provides a crucial insight: when front-runners duel at a high pace, horses with a strong closing kick from mid-pack can dominate. This is a key indicator for the Kizuna Cup.
November 4 “Sprint” (1000m): Gauging Momentum
The most recent race for some contenders was the 1000m sprint on November 4. While shorter than the Kizuna Cup’s 1200m, it’s an important gauge of current form. Four Kizuna Cup entrants participated:
- 1st: Oscar Brain (#6) (Time: 59.1)
- 2nd: Guadeloupe (#12) (Margin: 0.2s)
- 3rd: Eishin Torpedo (#8) (Margin: 0.4s)
- 4th: Good Fortune (#9) (Margin: 0.4s)
Oscar Brain (#6), who finished 4th in the 1200m race on Oct 21, won this 1000m event wire-to-wire [pos: 1-1], signaling he is in top form. Meanwhile, Guadeloupe (#12), who was 7th on Oct 21, ran a strong 2nd here. These results suggest both horses have a high aptitude for the pure speed of a 1000m race.
September 9 “Sprint” (1200m): The Power Balance
Looking back further, a 1200m race on September 9 (heavy track) also featured key contenders:
- 1st: Uraya (#2) (Time: 1:11.6)
- 2nd: Eishin Torpedo (#8) (Margin: 0.3s)
- 3rd: Lady Brown (#5) (Margin: 0.7s)
- 4th: Oscar Brain (#6) (Margin: 0.9s)
In this race, Oscar Brain (#6) again led [pos: 1-1] with Eishin Torpedo (#8) in pursuit [pos: 2-2]. However, Uraya (#2), who came from mid-pack [pos: 5-2], overtook them all to win. The data from both the September 9 and October 21 1200m races consistently shows the same pattern: Oscar Brain leads, Eishin Torpedo battles from a forward position, and Uraya and Lady Brown make their move from off the pace.
Preliminary Race Data Comparison
Comparing these three key races chronologically reveals each horse’s consistency and distance suitability at a glance.
| Race Name | Date | Distance | 1st Place | 2nd Place | 3rd Place | 4th Place |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sprint | Nov 4 | 1000m | Oscar Brain | Guadeloupe | Eishin Torpedo | Good Fortune |
| Sprint | Oct 21 | 1200m | Lady Brown | Uraya | Eishin Torpedo | Oscar Brain |
| Sprint | Sep 9 | 1200m | Uraya | Eishin Torpedo | Lady Brown | Oscar Brain |
Kizuna Cup 2025: Top Contender Spotlight (Data Analysis)
Based on the preliminary race analysis, here is an individual assessment of the top contenders.
#5 Lady Brown (7-year-old Filly | 55kg | Y. Suzuki)
Analysis: Morioka Dirt Record [4-3-1-5]. Her victory in the crucial Oct 21 (1200m) preliminary, where she defeated strong male rivals like Uraya (#2) and Eishin Torpedo (#8) by a head, must be highly rated. While she was 0.7s behind Uraya (#2) on Sep 9, she turned the tables on him on Oct 21, suggesting she may have reached peak form.
Key Data: She carries only 55kg. Her main rivals—Uraya (#2), Oscar Brain (#6), and Eishin Torpedo (#8)—are all at 57kg. This 2kg advantage is a significant weapon. If she can replicate the 35.6s closing speed she showed on Oct 21, a repeat victory is well within reach.
#2 Uraya (6-year-old Colt | 57kg | S. Yamamoto)
Analysis: Boasts a strong record at Morioka [4-2-0-3] and an excellent overall win/place rate on regional dirt tracks [5-2-1-6].
Key Data: He is a Morioka 1200m specialist. His record at this distance includes a 2nd in the Ganshu Sho on July 13, a 1st in the “Sprint” on Sep 9, and a 2nd (by a head) in the “Sprint” on Oct 21. As the data shows, his consistency on this course is top-class. His last 3F time of “35.4s” on Oct 21 was among the fastest in the field. If the pace is fast again, the race sets up perfectly for his closing kick.
#6 Oscar Brain (4-year-old Colt | 57kg | T. Sugawara)
Analysis: Morioka Dirt Record [5-2-0-2]. He won the 1000m race on Nov 4 wire-to-wire, confirming he is in excellent form.
Key Data: However, a closer look at his last four starts reveals a pattern: in 1200m races, he has been caught late after setting the pace, finishing 4th on both Sep 9 and Oct 21. The data suggests that while Oscar Brain (#6) has the speed to win at 1000m, he fades in the final 200m at 1200m. His last 3F time of 37.0s on Oct 21 was over a second slower than Lady Brown (#5) and Uraya (#2).
#8 Eishin Torpedo (4-year-old Colt | 57kg | N. Yamamoto)
Analysis: Morioka Dirt Record [1-1-2-1]. This horse’s greatest asset is his outstanding consistency.
Key Data: He has finished in the top 3 in all three recent key races (3rd at 1000m on 11/4, 3rd at 1200m on 10/21, 2nd at 1200m on 9/9). He always runs from a good position [e.g., 2-2, 5-4] and is never far from the action. While he may lack the explosive power to win, the data shows he is the most reliable horse to include as an anchor in exotic bets (like Trifecta or Superfecta).
Data-Driven Betting Angles for the Kizuna Cup
The analysis highlights three key points for formulating your betting strategy.
Point 1: 1000m Momentum vs. 1200m Track Record
Oscar Brain (#6) from the Nov 4 (1000m) race has “recent form” on his side, while Lady Brown (#5) and Uraya (#2) from the Oct 21 (1200m) race have a proven “track record at this distance.” In horse racing, “distance suitability” is often as important, if not more so, than current form. The data indicates that Oscar Brain’s performance drops at 1200m (4th on 10/21, 4th on 9/9). Therefore, the data-driven approach favors the proven 1200m performers over the 1000m speedster.
Point 2: Fast Pace Likely, Advantage to Closers
Oscar Brain (#6) has led or been second in all of his last four races. Additionally, Lord of the Czech (#1), drawn in the inside post, won wire-to-wire on Oct 7 and has other data points showing forward placement. With these two front-runners, a pace even faster than the Oct 21 race is expected. This scenario would be tough on Oscar Brain (#6) and the forwardly-placed Eishin Torpedo (#8). The data strongly suggests this will set up perfectly for closers like Uraya (#2) and Lady Brown (#5), who can conserve energy off the pace.
Point 3: Anchor Your Bet: Consistency or Explosiveness?
Choosing an anchor horse is key to building your wagers.
- The Consistency Anchor: Eishin Torpedo (#8), who has finished in the top 3 in his last three starts.
- The Explosiveness (Winning) Anchor: Lady Brown (#5), who won the head-to-head on Oct 21 and has a 55kg weight advantage. Alternatively, Uraya (#2), who has never finished out of the top two at Morioka 1200m in his recent major starts (2nd in Ganshu Sho, 1st on 9/9, 2nd on 10/21).
Conclusion: Final Picks for the Kizuna Cup (PR)
This article has provided an objective analysis of the top contenders and race dynamics based on past performance data. As noted, “training data” and “stable comments” were unavailable for this report, and these are crucial factors for judging a horse’s condition on race day.
Our final selections (◎○▲), which incorporate last-minute factors like track conditions, paddock appearance, and expert insights on training and stable information, along with specific betting recommendations, are available at the link below.
>> Get the Final Predictions & Picks for the Kizuna Cup 2025 Here!
english
english
english
english
english
english