Kiyomizu S 2025 Predictions | Data-Driven Breakdown of the Top 3 & Keys to Victory

The 2025 Kiyomizu Stakes is shaping up to be a three-horse race according to the forecast odds. The dynamic between the 3-year-old fillies Aisansan and Mickie Jewelry, and the older horse Dazzling Brave, is the main focus. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of these top three contenders based on stable comments and workout data. We also identify potential dark horses from the data and explain the crucial points for betting consideration.

Key Takeaways

• Aisansan: Her stable’s acknowledgment of “mental growth” signals she’s hitting her peak. With excellent training, she’s highly likely to overcome the class promotion challenge.
• Dazzling Brave: Both jockey and stable point to a “lack of finishing kick.” He’ll need help from the race pace or a slower track to succeed.
• Mickie Jewelry: Her last major loss was due to temperament. A shorter distance and training focused on explosive speed could lead to a significant turnaround.
• Dark Horses: Keep an eye on Yabusame, praised for an “excellent” recovery from a serious illness, and Navona, who will be wearing blinkers for the first time.

Kiyomizu Stakes 2025 Outlook: 3-Year-Old Fillies vs. Older Horses

The 2025 Kiyomizu Stakes is a special 3-win class race held on the 1600m turf course (outer loop) at Kyoto Racecourse. According to the entry data, it will be a 12-horse race (Source: 1). The first thing to note is the popularity trend indicated by the forecast win odds. The data shows that (4) Aisansan (forecast odds 2.9), (10) Dazzling Brave (3.3), and (8) Mickie Jewelry (3.9) are all under 10.0, forming a clear “three-horse race” atmosphere (Source: 1).

The core prediction point of this race is the power dynamic between the 3-year-old fillies and the older horses. While 3-year-old fillies Aisansan and Mickie Jewelry carry a weight of 55kg, the 5-year-old gelding Dazzling Brave will carry 58kg (Source: 1). How this 3kg handicap will affect the race outcome is the biggest focal point.

In this article, we will analyze the condition and suitability of these top three popular horses from multiple perspectives using three objective data points: “stable comments,” “previous jockey comments,” and “final workout data.” Furthermore, we will extract data on dark horses that could potentially break the dominance of this trio and present the “prediction points” that are central to betting considerations.

Prediction Point ①: Aisansan’s “Mental Growth” Signals Full Maturation

Aisansan, the 3-year-old filly supported by the lowest forecast odds (2.9) among the top three (Source: 1). Her greatest strength lies not just in her previous performance, but in the “mental growth” that her stable unanimously praises.

Fact 1: Testimony from Previous Jockey (Yutaka Ishikawa)
Reflecting on her last race, the Takasuyama Tokubetsu (1st place), jockey Yutaka Ishikawa commented, “I knew she had ability from watching her races… I still feel she has room to grow, she’s a good horse” (Source: 1). A jockey publicly stating they “still feel room to grow” after a race is proof that the victory was not her ceiling and she has yet to show her full potential. While the light handicap of 52kg was a factor (Source: 1), his comment suggests a future potential that far outweighs it.

Fact 2: Trainer (Akira Sasaki) Discusses “Growth”
This view aligns with the stable’s. Trainer Akira Sasaki gave his seal of approval, stating, “She’s stopped getting worked up, and I can feel her mental growth, so I’m looking forward to this race” (Source: 1). In horse racing, a filly’s performance is greatly influenced by her mental state. The stable’s analysis that “she’s stopped getting worked up” (cause) is directly linked to her “decisive win” (result) in the last race is a crucial point (Source: 1).

Fact 3: Recent Training Condition
Her condition is also evident in her recent training. In her final workout on the Ritto training track on November 5th, she received a brief comment of “increasingly in top form.” The workout analysis also gave high praise to her physical condition, stating, “An elastic physique and a spring in her step. Her condition is excellent again this time” (Source: 1). The expression “increasingly” suggests her condition is even better than her last race, indicating that her mental growth is having a positive impact on her physical state, creating an ideal positive cycle.

【Key Conclusion】
Although she faces two challenges—an increase in weight (from 52kg to 55kg) and a class promotion—there is ample objective data to suggest a “mental maturation” that more than compensates for them (Source: 1).

Prediction Point ②: Dazzling Brave’s “Suitability” and Mickie Jewelry’s “Turnaround”

For the remaining two contenders, Dazzling Brave and Mickie Jewelry, a deeper dive into the data reveals clear points for consideration.

Dazzling Brave (#10): The Reason for the Missing “Final Punch”

Dazzling Brave boasts the top rating (63.1) among the entrants and has C. Demuro as his jockey (Source: 1). However, the data consistently points to a weakness of “lacking a decisive kick” and suggests a “specific solution” for it.

Fact 1: Decisive Comment from Previous Jockey (C. Lemaire)
After his last race, the Chushu S (3rd place), jockey C. Lemaire clearly stated, “He ran a good race, but he doesn’t have much of a kick. I think a softer track would be better than a fast one” (Source: 1). This assessment of “no kick (= lack of explosive speed)” from a world-class jockey defines this horse’s fundamental suitability. In other words, it indicates he is likely a “stamina-type” miler who is at a disadvantage in a speed duel on a fast track and whose strengths are best utilized on a slower track.

Fact 2: The Stable’s (Takashi Saito) Reserved Tone
This view is echoed in the stable’s comments. Trainer Takashi Saito commented, “I’d like to see a bit more of a final punch, but with some help from the track condition and race development…” (Source: 1). The jockey’s and stable’s comments are in complete agreement that he “lacks a final punch (explosive speed).” The “help from the track condition” the stable is looking for is undoubtedly the “softer track” mentioned by the previous jockey. For a strong contender with forecast odds of 3.3 (Source: 1), the stable’s tone is reserved, which can be interpreted as an admission of his high dependency on track conditions.

Fact 3: Training Content Shows “Clumsiness”
In his final workout on November 5th, he was “pushed hard” but was “0.3 seconds behind” his training partner (Source: 1). This fact aligns with Lemaire’s observation of his “lack of kick” (Source: 1). However, the workout analysis adds, “Although he was behind, his final time was faster than before his last race. Not a bad move” (Source: 1), leaving the possibility that his power and stamina have improved.

【Key Conclusion】
The key prediction point for him boils down to one thing: “the track condition on race day.” If it’s a fast track, he carries the risk of disappointing his backers.

Mickie Jewelry (#8): A Clear Reason for the Rose S. Loss and the “Solution” of a Shorter Distance

Having finished a distant 16th in her last race, the Rose S (G2) (Source: 1), she is a difficult horse to assess. However, a detailed analysis of the data reveals a clear reason for her defeat, and this time, a clear “solution” (= shorter distance) has been prepared to address it.

Fact 1: Analysis of the Previous Defeat
Why the major loss? The “memo for next race” in the post-race interview states, “She was fighting the bit from the start… aided by the fast pace, she had no energy left to extend in the stretch” (Source: 1). The cause of defeat was a lack of stamina, but the root cause is analyzed as “fighting the bit from the start (= failed to settle).”

Fact 2: The Stable’s (Assistant Fukunaga) Comments on “Temperament” and “Countermeasures”
An assistant from the Fukunaga stable commented, “Her last race was tough,” and “She has a strong-willed nature, so it would be good if 1600 meters works to her advantage” (Source: 1). The stable has identified that the cause of her last defeat (Source: 1) lies in her “strong-willed” (= fights the bit) temperament. They explicitly state that “shortening the distance to 1600 meters” is the “countermeasure” to turn this temperament into a positive.

Fact 3: Training Reflects the Countermeasures
The stable’s intention is also reflected in her training. The brief comment for her final workout (Nov 5) was “focus on the finish” (Source: 1). In an earlier workout on October 29, she recorded a sharp final lap time of “11.0” (Source: 1). This shows a deliberate effort to strengthen the “explosive speed” required for 1600m, rather than the stamina needed for 1800m or more.

【Key Conclusion】
Her major defeat in the last race (Source: 1) can be disregarded. The distance reduction to a mile is a move made by the stable with clear intent (temperament management), and her training (Source: 1) supports this. This is a pattern where a significant “turnaround” can be expected.

Prediction Point ③: Data Analysis of Dark Horses Threatening the Top 3

While the top three contenders (Source: 1) are strong, there are several dark horses with “clear positive factors” that cannot be overlooked in the data.

Channel Tunnel (#6): The Single Biggest Challenge – The “Gate”

The Fukunaga stable openly commented on his biggest weakness: “He gets nervous when another horse is in the next gate… it’s even more crucial this time at 1600 meters” (Source: 1). The Kyoto 1600m course has a corner right after the start, so a slow break from the gate can be a fatal risk. However, on the flip side, as the jockey commented after his last race (Nishinomiya S, 3rd), if he can just “get a clean break” (Source: 1), he has the ability to run “consistently well here too” (Source: 1), as per the stable’s brief. His training is also perfect, with a note of “well-prepared despite a short break” (Source: 1).

Yabusame (#2): Reason for Layoff and “Excellent” Training

According to the Ishibashi stable, the reason for his long layoff was “severe cellulitis (purulent dermatitis)” (Source: 1). This is a serious illness, yet despite this, his final workout (Nov 5) was highly praised in the analysis: “Full of spirit again this week, challenging his training partner. Excellent” (Source: 1). The brief comment also states, “Well-prepared despite layoff” (Source: 1). In his last race (Sanuki Tokubetsu, 1st), he won decisively by “extending well” even after being “blocked” (Source: 1), showing his ability is competitive at this level. If he can return in top condition, his forecast odds of 9.4 (Source: 1) are appealing.

Navona (#9): The Stable’s Adjustment – “First-Time Blinkers”

The entry list shows a “B” mark, indicating this will be his first time wearing blinkers (Source: 1). Additionally, the stable (Assistant Araki) emphasizes his improved condition: “He was overweight last time after a long layoff, but he’s trimmed down with the race, and he’s a different horse inside this time” (Source: 1). The combination of “improved condition” and “equipment change” is a signal of a potential turnaround worth noting.

【Full Analysis】Kiyomizu S 2025 Entrants: Training & Stable Comments

As part of the “Kiyomizu S 2025 Prediction Points,” here is a summary of objective data (latest workout notes, official stable comments) for all 12 entrants (Source: 1).

Analysis of Other Notable Horses

• Artume (#11): Stable note “Good affinity with Kyoto,” workout note “Always moves well in training.” Her training is good and her course suitability is highlighted, so a solid performance can be expected.
• Suzuka Double (#7): Stable comment “Leading from the start is best for now” suggests a front-running strategy. However, training notes like “Reset but still needs more” and “Improvement is slow” indicate that without a favorable pace, it will be tough, and her condition is not perfect.
• From Dusk (#12): Stable comments “The start is key” and “Depends on his mood on the day.” Like Channel Tunnel, he has issues at the gate, carrying the risk of not being able to perform to his full potential.

Kiyomizu S 2025: Final Prediction Conclusion

In this article, we analyzed the “Kiyomizu S 2025 Prediction Points” based on the provided data (Source: 1).

• Aisansan: Comments from both the stable and jockey confirm a definite upward trend in “mental growth,” and her training is excellent (Source: 1).
• Dazzling Brave: Jockey and stable comments suggest a “lack of finishing kick” and “dependency on the track,” making the track bias on race day the key to his evaluation (Source: 1).
• Mickie Jewelry: The reason for her last major defeat is clear (temperament/fighting the bit), and the stable has taken logical countermeasures with a “shorter distance” and “training to enhance explosive speed,” holding the potential for a complete turnaround (Source: 1).
• Dark Horses: Among the longshots, Yabusame, who has overcome a serious illness (Source: 1) and is rated “excellent” (Source: 1), and Navona, wearing blinkers for the first time (Source: 1), offer good value.

The final predictions (◎○▲△) and recommended bets based on the above analysis are available at the link below.

Next Steps

See the Final Conclusion for the 2025 Kiyomizu Stakes Here (netkeiba.com)