From Solid Bet Grati…
A thorough prediction for the Kinshu Stakes (Tokyo Dirt 1600m) on November 8, 2025. We analyze the reliability of the favorite, Vendome; the chances of GI performer Mondo della More on his dirt debut; and the challenges facing Le Grand Vin with his increased weight. From training evaluations to pace analysis, we provide an expert breakdown of the race’s key points and potential dark horses.
On November 8, 2025, the “Kinshu Stakes” will be held as the main event (Race 10) on the first day of the 5th Tokyo Racecourse meet, with a post time of 15:00. The race is for three-year-olds and up in the 3-Win Class, run at a set weight over 1600m on the Tokyo dirt track (left-handed). The weather is forecast to be clear with a fast track, setting the stage for a true test of ability.
This race features a relatively small field of 11 runners for a 3-Win Class event. In the projected odds, Vendome (7), ridden by C. Lemaire, is the top favorite. While he appears to be a solid choice, the talented Mondo della More (5), a 4th place finisher in the G1 NHK Mile Cup, follows as the second favorite in a noteworthy switch to dirt. Le Grand Vin (4), who battled Vendome (7) to a 0.0-second difference in their last race, is the third favorite.
This article provides a thorough breakdown of the “Kinshu Stakes 2025 Prediction Points” by cross-analyzing various data sources.
We conduct a data-driven comparison of the top three horses (Vendome, Mondo della More, Le Grand Vin) that are attracting the most attention from experts and bettors.
Basic Data: Projected win odds of 2.9 (1st favorite). Ridden by C. Lemaire and trained by Shogo Yasuda. Highly rated by experts and considered the top pick.
Recent Performance: His greatest strength is his high aptitude for the Tokyo Dirt 1600m. His last three starts have all been on this course, with results of 6th, 2nd, and 2nd, bringing him to the brink of moving up in class.
Key Data (Previous Race): In his last race, the Kawaguchiko Stakes (2025.10.25, Tokyo Dirt 1600m, Fast), he finished a strong 2nd, just 0.0 seconds behind the winner. The 3rd place finisher in that race was Le Grand Vin (4), another top contender today.
Stable and Training Evaluation: Training reports from multiple media outlets are consistent, indicating no concerns about his condition.
Analysis (1): A Clear Solution – “First-Time Blinkers (B)”
This horse’s main issue has been a lack of focus. Trainer Shogo Yasuda commented, “Even in his last race, he was distracted by his surroundings and wasn’t running his hardest.” The decision to use blinkers for the first time is a strong indication that the stable is addressing this specific problem with the most effective equipment. Furthermore, the stable’s comment that “a smaller field should make the race easier” confirms that the physical challenge of a 16-horse field is now resolved with only 11 runners.
Analysis (2): A “Hidden Advantage” in Weight Comparison
In the Kawaguchiko Stakes, Vendome (7) carried 57.0kg while Le Grand Vin (4) carried 55.0kg. Vendome (7) finished ahead. In today’s Kinshu Stakes, Vendome (7) will carry 58.0kg (+1.0kg), while Le Grand Vin (4) will carry 57.0kg (+2.0kg). The weight difference between them shrinks from 2.0kg to 1.0kg. This is a clear data point that favors Vendome (7).
Basic Data: Projected win odds of 4.4 (2nd favorite). Ridden by Keita Tosaki and trained by the Chiba stable. Expert expectations are very high.
Biggest Point: Dirt Debut
This horse has had a brilliant career on turf, showing top-class ability with a 4th place finish in the G1 NHK Mile Cup, only 0.1 seconds behind the winner. This will be his first career start on dirt.
Analysis (1): The Dirt Debut is a Calculated Move, Not a Gamble
This surface change is not simply due to hitting a wall on turf. First, his “pedigree.” The stable commented, “He should be able to run on dirt based on his bloodline,” as his dam’s sire (BMS) is the great dual-surface stallion Kurofune, providing strong evidence for dirt aptitude. Second, his “training.” His final workout was praised as “agile and powerful, more impressive than the numbers suggest.” Third, the “stable’s analysis.” Trainer Chiba noted that “he’s been stuck in inside gates recently,” attributing his turf losses to gate position. His mid-pack draw of Gate 5 is ideal. Pedigree, training, and stable comments all align, pointing towards “dirt suitability.”
Basic Data: Projected win odds of 5.0 (3rd favorite). Ridden by Akira Sugawara and trained by Noboru Takagi. Considered a top contender.
Recent Performance: He bounced back immediately in his last race, the Kawaguchiko Stakes, finishing 3rd (0.0 seconds behind). Jockey Akira Sugawara commented, “We’ve shown we can compete at this level,” confirming his ability.
Analysis (1): Two “Critical Concerns” – Contradictory Training Reports and Increased Weight
This horse has two clear red flags. First, “contradictory training reports.” While the stable says he is “full of energy,” an expert trackman described his final workout as “lacking, with a scattered and clumsy form.” Second, the “increased weight.” Trainer Takagi himself expressed concern, saying, “I’m not sure how the 2kg weight increase will affect him.” In his last race, he lost by a nose to Vendome (7) while carrying 2.0kg less. With the weight gap now smaller and his absolute weight higher, the data suggests that turning the tables will be difficult.
Here we visualize the weight changes for the two horses who battled to a 0.0-second finish in the previous “Kawaguchiko Stakes,” a key factor in this race.
| No. | Horse Name | Previous Race (Kawaguchiko S) | Prev. Weight | Finish | Time Diff. | Current Weight | Weight Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Vendome | 16 runners, Dirt 1600m | 57.0kg | 2nd | 0.0s | 58.0kg | +1.0kg |
| 4 | Le Grand Vin | 16 runners, Dirt 1600m | 55.0kg | 3rd | 0.0s | 57.0kg | +2.0kg |
Analysis: In their last race, Vendome (7) finished ahead of Le Grand Vin (4) while carrying 2.0kg more weight. This time, the weight difference is only 1.0kg. The data suggests this works in Vendome’s (7) favor.
We analyze the contenders ranked 4th or lower in popularity who have the potential to challenge the top three or influence the race’s outcome.
Basic Data: 7th favorite, ridden by Kazuo Yokoyama. Returning from a 3.5-month layoff, but his condition appears excellent.
Key Point (Race Style): This horse is a pure front-runner. Trainer Senda commented, “We’ve been waiting for a Tokyo mile,” indicating this change in conditions is a clear positive. His condition is highly rated, and he seems well-prepared despite the layoff.
Analysis (The Pacemaker): This horse’s presence will dictate the pace of the race. Given his good condition and preferred course, he will undoubtedly aim for the lead. This means the race is unlikely to be slow, demanding a certain level of stamina and a strong closing kick. This could be advantageous for closers like Vendome (7) and Night Aquarium (2).
Basic Data: 5th favorite, ridden by Pouchant, from the Yasutoshi Ikee stable. Finished 4th in the Ak富士S last out.
Analysis (All Data Points to “Improvement”): All data related to this horse suggests he will perform “better than last time,” making him a strong betting consideration. Both the stable and jockey have commented on his “improvement after a race” and “potential for more.” His training is perfect, and a better performance is expected.
Basic Data: 4th favorite, ridden by Yoshihito Nagaoka, from the Yoshiaki Sugiyama stable.
Key Point (Course Suitability): This horse is a specialist at the Tokyo Dirt 1600m, having shown great aptitude in the past. He showed signs of returning to form in his last race, and the stable commented, “His condition has improved considerably.”
Analysis (Comeback Trigger: “First-Time Blinkers (B)”): Like Vendome (7), this horse will also wear “first-time blinkers.” With signs of a comeback, a return to his favorite course, a favorable pace scenario, and the addition of blinkers to enhance focus, all conditions are aligned for a strong performance. He is a horse to watch more closely than his popularity suggests.
We highlight horses with long odds who, based on training or specific data, have the potential for an upset.
Basic Data: 8th favorite, ridden by Daisuke Sasaki. Won his last race (2-Win Class) and is moving up.
Analysis (Workout Times Indicate “Peak Form”): While stepping up in class is a challenge, this horse’s condition may be good enough to overcome it. He has posted exceptional workout times, suggesting he is reaching his peak. Furthermore, he is also in the “first-time blinkers (B)” group. With the momentum from his last win, excellent training times, mental growth, and new equipment, he has many positives and could be competitive immediately.
Basic Data: 6th favorite, ridden by Yasunari Iwata. A typical closer who needs the right race setup. The key is whether the pace set by Meisho Mikawa (8) will allow him to unleash his closing kick.
We summarize the most critical data-driven points for predicting this race.
We consolidate information from professional and sports papers to provide a summary of each horse’s condition.
| No. | Horse Name | Training Eval (Book) | Training Eval (Daily) | Stable Comments (Combined) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harbor Light | No significant change (→) | Unchanged (C) | Trying a mile to stimulate him. Hope for something new. |
| 2 | Night Aquarium | Improving with this work (B) | Full of energy (B) | Condition is improving significantly. Signs of a comeback. |
| 3 | Argonavis | Training smoothly (B) | Condition stable (B) | His physique has improved with racing. Excellent shape. |
| 4 | Le Grand Vin | Movement is so-so (→) | Good spirit (B) | [Contradiction] Trainer: “Full of energy” vs. Book: “Lacking.” |
| 5 | Mondo della More | Shows good spirit (↗) | Sharp (B) | Should have dirt aptitude. Agile and powerful. |
| 6 | Dunedin | Improving with this work (B) | Good finish (B) | Lacks a finishing kick on turf, so moving to dirt. |
| 7 | Vendome | Unchanged, progressing well (B) | Maintaining good form (B) | Tends to get distracted. Smaller field will be easier. |
| 8 | Meisho Mikawa | Good spirit despite layoff (B) | Ready to go (B) | Better than last time in the heat. We’ve been waiting for the Tokyo mile. |
| 9 | Cool Bronze | Ambitious workout (B) | Good time (B) | Showing more focus, his work has improved. Tokyo mile suits him. |
| 10 | Jody’s Marron | Unchanged, progressing well (B) | Same as last race (B) | Returning to his usual conditions. Can run his race consistently. |
| 11 | Meisho Aurora | Decently prepared (B) | Improving with work (B) | Rested well and reset. Hope the refresh helps. |
Analysis: This table clearly visualizes the “contradictory training evaluation” for No. 4, Le Grand Vin. On the other hand, No. 5 Mondo della More, No. 8 Meisho Mikawa, and No. 9 Cool Bronze have received high marks and positive comments from both media sources, confirming their excellent condition.
We have analyzed the key prediction points for the “Kinshu Stakes 2025” in detail based on all available data. While we’ve covered each horse’s condition, course suitability, and the race dynamics, our final conclusion, including our top picks (◎○▲△) and recommended bets, is available at the link below.
Source: This analysis is based on information from netkeiba.com and Keiba Book (as of November 8, 2025).